# International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/IBM · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), nexqual.com/IBM" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 252.11 (+0.26% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 251.46 · day 241.25–256.27 · 52w 199.19–332.46 · market cap $238B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $69.9B, net income $11.2B (16.0% margin), free cash flow $14.7B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 21.3x (avg 26.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $52.8B.
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold IBM (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $5.8M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($5.8M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.52 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 257.22 (range 174–300).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -9.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +149.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-21, EPS estimate USD 4.63, revenue estimate $20.4B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $57.4B | $60.5B | $61.9B | $62.8B | $67.5B | $69.9B |
| Gross profit | $31.5B | $32.7B | $34.3B | $35.6B | $39.3B | — |
| Net income | $5.74B | $1.64B | $7.50B | $6.02B | $10.6B | $11.2B |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.35 | $1.80 | $8.14 | $6.43 | $11.17 | — |
| Free cash flow | $10.7B | $9.09B | $12.7B | $12.4B | $12.1B | $14.7B |
| Gross margin | 54.9% | 54.0% | 55.4% | 56.7% | 58.2% | — |
| Net margin | 10.0% | 2.7% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 16.0% |
| Revenue growth | +3.9% | +5.5% | +2.2% | +1.4% | +7.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $7.25B | $8.74B | $13.4B | $14.6B | $14.4B | — |
| Total debt | $51.7B | $50.9B | $56.5B | $55.0B | $61.3B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 21.3x · P/S 3.4x · EV/Sales 4.2x · P/FCF 16.2x · P/B 6.7x · FCF yield 6.17% · Earnings yield 4.70% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.67% · Net debt $52.8B · EV $290B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 26.5x, Dec 2024 34.2x, Dec 2023 20.1x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold IBM. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Den Berg Management I |  | 2.36% | $11.2M | Added +7.5% |
| Kahn Brothers | Kahn Brothers Group | 0.05% | $298K | Unchanged |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | 0.01% | $12.9M | Reduced -1.3% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.01% | $1.0M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thomas Robert David | Senior Vice President | 25,000 | $5.8M | 34.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.52 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 257.22 (low 174, high 300).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Jefferies | Target raised | Buy | $270 → $280 |
| 2026-10-22 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $236 → $243 |
| 2026-10-22 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $245 → $280 |
| 2026-10-22 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $238 → $240 |
| 2026-10-22 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Market Perform | $230 → $265 |
| 2026-10-22 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $262 → $277 |
| 2026-10-22 | RBC Capital | Reiterated | Outperform | $270 |
| 2026-10-22 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $250 → $269 |
| 2026-10-22 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $235 → $260 |
| 2026-10-22 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Neutral | $235 → $256 |
| 2026-10-22 | Baird | Target raised | Neutral | $230 → $260 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $190 → $238 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -9.2% | +149.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -9.3% | +20.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 51.1% | 31.0% |
| Max drawdown | -37.5% (Jun 2026→Jul 2026) | -30.3% (Dec 2025→Jul 2026) |

## Peers (Information Technology Services)
ACN (Accenture plc) USD 258.74 +7.69% · INFY (Infosys Limited) USD 13.22 +3.69% · CTSH (Cognizant Technology Solutions ) USD 73.72 +6.00% · FISV (Fiserv, Inc.) USD 50.82 +5.41% · WIT (Wipro Limited) USD 2.19 +1.86% · BR (Broadridge Financial Solutions,) USD 186.12 +4.39%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/IBM · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in IBM's own 10-K filed 2026-02-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000010/ibm-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Amazon (AMZN) | "Our strategic partners include: Adobe, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, among others." |
| Partner | Microsoft (MSFT) | "Our strategic partners include: Adobe, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, among others." |
| Partner | Oracle (ORCL) | "Our strategic partners include: Adobe, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, among others." |
| Partner | Salesforce (CRM) | "Our strategic partners include: Adobe, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, among others." |
| Partner | SAP (SAP) | "Our strategic partners include: Adobe, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, among others." |
| Partner | Adobe (ADBE) | "Our strategic partners include: Adobe, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, among others." |
| Partner | Samsung Electronics | "Our strategic partners include: Adobe, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, among others." |
| Competitor | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "The principal competitors in this segment include: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, BMC, Broadcom, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, SAP and Splunk, a CISCO Company." |
| Competitor | Broadcom (AVGO) | "The principal competitors in this segment include: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, BMC, Broadcom, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, SAP and Splunk, a CISCO Company." |
| Competitor | Accenture (ACN) | "Our competitors include global firms such as Accenture, Capgemini, India-based service providers, management consulting firms, the consulting practices of public accounting firms, engineering service providers, and niche…" |
| Competitor | Dell Technologies (DELL) | "Our principal competitors include: Dell Technologies, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), Intel, NetApp and Pure Storage as well as original device manufacturers (ODMs) who provide systems that are re-branded." |
| Competitor | Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) | "Our principal competitors include: Dell Technologies, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), Intel, NetApp and Pure Storage as well as original device manufacturers (ODMs) who provide systems that are re-branded." |
| Competitor | Intel (INTC) | "Our principal competitors include: Dell Technologies, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), Intel, NetApp and Pure Storage as well as original device manufacturers (ODMs) who provide systems that are re-branded." |

Other companies that name IBM in their own reports (relationship from IBM's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) | 10-K 2026-10-20 | "Our semiconductor suppliers include many of the world's largest memory manufacturers, including Samsung Semiconductor, Inc., Micron Technology, Inc., SK hynix, Inc., International Business Machines Co…" |
| competitor | CLPS Inc (CLPS) | 20-F 2026-10-16 | "To date, we do not typically compete directly with the larger global consulting and outsourcing firms, such as Accenture, Capgemini, Hewlett-Packard and IBM, who are typically engaged in conjunction w…" |
| supplier | Agroz Inc. (AGRZ) | 20-F 2026-09-28 | "Redpill Solutions (later sold to IBM), a customer management service company." |
| supplier | Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) | 10-K 2026-09-10 | "On August 31, 2024, we completed the acquisition of certain IBM QRadar assets, including certain intellectual property rights, customer relationships, and software as a service customer contracts." |
| competitor | OPEN TEXT CORP (OTEX) | 10-K 2026-08-06 | "We compete with large enterprise technology providers, including International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), Microsoft Corporation (Microsoft), Oracle Corporation (Oracle) and ServiceNow, Inc. …" |
| partner | Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) | 10-K 2026-06-29 | "Actian (transaction value USD 330 million), carve-outs of multiple IBM product suites, a joint venture between HCL and CSC, and an acquisition" |
| competitor | SIFY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (SIFY) | 20-F 2026-06-26 | "Individually, we expect to see competition intensify from established players like Reliance Jio, TATA Communications and Bharti for telecommunications services, Ctrl S, STT, Nxtra and Net Magic for Da…" |
| competitor | QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) | 10-K 2026-06-25 | "Our primary storage solutions, including object storage systems, primarily face competition from the EMC business unit of Dell Inc. ("Dell"), International Business Machines Corporation, ("IBM"), NetA…" |
| competitor | ORACLE CORP (ORCL) | 10-K 2026-06-22 | "Our enterprise cloud, software and hardware offerings compete directly with certain offerings from some of the largest and most competitive companies in the world, including Adobe Systems Incorporated…" |
| partner | WIPRO LTD (WIT) | 20-F 2026-06-02 | "Our top strategic partners include hyperscalers, industry-leading platforms, and AI-native companies like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Google, IBM, SAP, ServiceNow, and NVIDIA." |
| customer | Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD) | 10-K 2026-05-29 | "As part of our ongoing cash and commercial management strategy with customers and suppliers and as previously disclosed, our standard practice since the time of our spin-off from IBM is to actively ma…" |
| competitor | NETSCOUT SYSTEMS INC (NTCT) | 10-K 2026-05-14 | "In the enterprise market, our competitors include companies who provide network observability, application performance management, infrastructure performance management and other related solutions suc…" |
| competitor | FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD (FORTY) | 20-F 2026-05-13 | "governance, risk and compliance (GRC), Matrix competes with large global corporations such as IBM, Accenture and Oracle, as well as the" |
| partner | UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP (UMC) | 20-F 2026-04-30 | "We also joined the IBM chip alliance, for advanced process development." |
| competitor | Nvni Group Ltd (NVNI) | 20-F 2026-04-30 | "Principal competitors include Globant, Endava, EPAM Systems, Thoughtworks, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Wipro, Accenture, IBM" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software | $7.80B | 45.6% | +8.3% |
| Consulting | $5.33B | 31.2% | +0.2% |
| Infrastructure | $3.71B | 21.7% | +4.2% |
| Financing | $192.0M | 1.1% | -4.0% |
| Total revenue | $17.10B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | $8.91B | 52.1% | +6.0% |
| — Strategy and Technology (part of Sales) | $2.96B | 17.3% | +2.1% |
| — Transaction Processing (part of Sales) | $2.11B | 12.3% | +9.4% |
| — Hybrid Cloud (part of Sales) | $2.09B | 12.2% | +10.6% |
| — Data (part of Sales) | $1.74B | 10.2% | +19.1% |
| Services | $8.00B | 46.8% | +3.6% |
| Hybrid Infrastructure | $2.45B | 14.3% | +8.4% |
| Intelligent Operations | $2.37B | 13.9% | -2.0% |
| Automation | $1.87B | 10.9% | -3.3% |
| Infrastructure Support | $1.25B | 7.3% | -3.2% |
| Financing | $192.0M | 1.1% | -4.0% |
| Total revenue | $17.10B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 146.5% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $8.58B | 50.1% | +5.3% |
| Europe/Middle East/Africa | $5.43B | 31.7% | +3.3% |
| Asia Pacific | $3.10B | 18.1% | +5.6% |
| Total revenue | $17.10B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-21)

- "EX-99.1 2 ibm-20261021xex991.htm EX-99.1 Document Exhibit 99.1 IBM RELEASES THIRD-QUARTER RESULTS Exceeded expectations with accelerated revenue growth led by Software and Infrastructure;"
- "Raises outlook for full-year free cash flow ARMONK, N.Y., October 21, 2026 . . ."
- "Full-Year 2026 Expectations • Revenue: The company continues to expect full-year constant currency revenue growth in the range of four-to-five percent."
- "At current foreign exchange rates, currency is expected to be neutral to growth for the year • Free cash flow: The company now expects full-year free cash flow to increase by more than $1 billion year-over-year Dividend Declaration The IBM board of directors approved a regular quarterly cash dividend of $1.69 per common share, to stockholders of record on November 10, 2026."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.63 | $4.61 | +0.5% | $20.39B | 19 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $2.14 | $2.14 | +0.2% | $16.55B | 14 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $12.42 | $12.33 | +0.7% | $70.56B | 22 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $13.23 | $13.21 | +0.2% | $73.22B | 24 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 41.3% | ±5.0% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 37.0% | ±6.1% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 35.7% | ±7.2% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 35.3% | ±8.1% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 34.5% | ±8.7% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 34.2% | ±9.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 34.4% | ±10.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 33.5% | ±13.0% |