# Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/IBTA · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA), nexqual.com/IBTA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 48.9 (-0.16% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 48.98 · day 48.6–50.54 · 52w 19.1–50.54 · market cap $1.14B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $343M, net income -$11.0M (-3.2% margin), free cash flow $74.5M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 25 Form 4 filings, $38.8M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($22.0M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.11 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 36.57 (range 22–45).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +46.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -50.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-02, EPS estimate USD 0.44, revenue estimate $88.6M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $211M | $320M | $367M | $342M | $343M |
| Gross profit | $165M | $276M | $317M | $271M | — |
| Operating income | -$40.3M | $56.0M | $27.9M | -$841K | -$12.0M |
| Net income | -$54.9M | $38.1M | $68.7M | $3.6M | -$11.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$6.33 | $1.42 | $2.56 | $0.12 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$57.3M | $22.2M | $115M | $75.0M | $74.5M |
| Gross margin | 78.1% | 86.3% | 86.4% | 79.2% | — |
| Operating margin | -19.1% | 17.5% | 7.6% | -0.2% | -3.5% |
| Net margin | -26.0% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 1.0% | -3.2% |
| Revenue growth | — | +51.9% | +14.8% | -6.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $17.8M | $62.6M | $349M | $187M | — |
| Total debt | — | $64.4M | $0K | $0K | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 3.3x · P/FCF 15.3x · P/B 4.7x · FCF yield 6.56% · Earnings yield -0.97% · Buyback yield (TTM) 14.40%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 191.4x, Dec 2024 25.4x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
19 of 25 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19…2026-10-20 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 63,064 | $3.0M | 7.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-05…2026-10-06 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 15,142 | $627K | 1.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-01 | Swanson Luke Roy | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | 11,880 | $473K | 1.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-09-21…2026-09-22 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 15,142 | $626K | 1.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-10 | Swanson Luke Roy | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | 40,200 | $1.6M | 5.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-09-08…2026-09-09 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 39,103 | $1.5M | 4.5% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-01…2026-09-02 | Daspit Marisa | CHIEF PEOPLE OFFICER | 4,668 | $174K | 3.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-01 | Swanson Luke Roy | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | 11,880 | $439K | 1.6% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-17…2026-08-18 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 35,616 | $1.3M | 3.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-13 | Lehrman Thomas D | Director | 30,273 | $1.1M | 32.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-11…2026-08-12 | Lehrman Thomas D | Director | 42,407 | $1.5M | 32.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-07 | Swanson Luke Roy | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | 800 | $32K | 0.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-03…2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 95,030 | $3.3M | 9.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Swanson Luke Roy | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | 11,880 | $291K | 1.6% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-20…2026-07-21 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 15,142 | $482K | 1.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-06 | Clark Jermoluk Founders Fund I Llc |  | 500,000 | $15.1M | 13% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 9,402 | $311K | 1.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-01…2026-07-02 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 28,231 | $994K | 3.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-01 | Swanson Luke Roy | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | 11,880 | $417K | 1.5% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-22…2026-06-23 | Leach Bryan | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 15,142 | $462K | 1.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.11 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 36.57 (low 22, high 45).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $30 → $38 |
| 2026-08-04 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Sell | $28 → $32 |
| 2026-08-04 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $38 → $40 |
| 2026-08-04 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $40 → $42 |
| 2026-08-04 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $45 |
| 2026-07-08 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Sell | $32 → $28 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2024-04-15) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +46.5% | -50.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +46.6% | -24.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 76.9% | 79.6% |
| Max drawdown | -45.1% (Oct 2025→Feb 2026) | -81.0% (Apr 2024→Feb 2026) |

## Peers (Software - Application)
APPF (AppFolio, Inc.) USD 217.33 +0.06% · DSGX (The Descartes Systems Group Inc) USD 94 +1.74% · TTAN (ServiceTitan, Inc.) USD 85.2 +3.50% · IDCC (InterDigital, Inc.) USD 332.06 -0.78% · YMM (Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.) USD 8.35 -1.76% · PCOR (Procore Technologies, Inc.) USD 62.29 +2.27%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/IBTA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in IBTA's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1538379/000162828026011838/ibta-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Walmart (WMT) | "The Walmart Program Agreement can be terminated by Walmart with at least 270 days' notice to us (provided that Walmart cannot replace us during the then-remaining term of the Walmart Program Agreement with a digital offe…" |
| Partner | Maplebear Inc. (CART) | "This growth was driven primarily by the launch of new partners, namely Instacart and DoorDash, and growth at certain existing third-party publishers." |
| Partner | DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) | "This growth was driven primarily by the launch of new partners, namely Instacart and DoorDash, and growth at certain existing third-party publishers." |
| Partner | Apple (AAPL) | "For instance, we and our partners use mobile device identifiers such as Apple IDFA and Google AdID to" |
| Partner | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "For instance, we and our partners use mobile device identifiers such as Apple IDFA and Google AdID to" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Redemption revenue | $80.2M | 90.2% | +9.5% |
| Ad & other revenue | $8.7M | 9.8% | -32.1% |
| Breakage | $2.4M | 2.7% | -10.0% |
| Total revenue | $88.9M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 102.7% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-03)

- "Financial Guidance: Third quarter 2026 outlook summary: • Revenue of $86 - $90 million, a year-over-year increase of 6% at the midpoint. • Adjusted EBITDA of $12 - $14 million, representing a margin of 14.8% at the midpoint."
- "Guidance for adjusted EBITDA is earnings before interest income, net, provision for income taxes, and depreciation and amortization, and excludes stock-based compensation and other expense, net."

Analysts expect $88.6M for the current quarter, +0.7% vs the guidance midpoint $88.0M. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1538379/000162828026051867/earningsrelease63026.htm

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.44 | $0.39 | +13.2% | $88.6M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.45 | $0.44 | +3.9% | $93.4M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.59 | $1.42 | +12.5% | $353.3M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.88 | $1.68 | +12.2% | $384.7M | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-02): ±25.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±26.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 112.6% | ±25.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 87.9% | ±27.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 83.9% | ±32.4% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 77.5% | ±39.3% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 76.2% | ±48.3% |