# IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/IDYA · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA), nexqual.com/IDYA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 32.89 (-3.15% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 33.96 · day 32.76–34.51 · 52w 26.81–42.68 · market cap $3.17B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $234M, net income -$175M (-74.8% margin), free cash flow -$114M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.4M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.88 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 52.38 (range 31–65).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +7.5% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y +53.4% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09 (date not yet confirmed by the company), EPS estimate USD -1.16, revenue estimate $7.6M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-09
- Dividend: IDYA paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 10.93% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 9.9 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.9M | $50.9M | $23.4M | $7.0M | $219M | $234M |
| Operating income | -$50.3M | -$62.5M | -$134M | -$327M | -$159M | -$217M |
| Net income | -$49.8M | -$58.7M | -$113M | -$274M | -$114M | -$175M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.41 | -$1.42 | -$1.96 | -$3.36 | -$1.28 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$58.4M | -$90.6M | -$118M | -$251M | -$73.5M | -$114M |
| Operating margin | -179.9% | -122.7% | -574.9% | -4671.1% | -72.8% | -92.7% |
| Net margin | -178.1% | -115.2% | -483.0% | -3921.1% | -52.0% | -74.8% |
| Revenue growth | +43.0% | +82.3% | -54.1% | -70.1% | +3024.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $247M | $365M | $525M | $676M | $639M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 13.6x · P/B 2.6x · FCF yield -3.59% · Earnings yield -5.51%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Hata Yujiro S | President and CEO | 26,338 | $985K | 3.7% | Yes (adopted July 7, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-07-07 | Ruiz Briseno Andres | Chief Accounting Officer | 9,550 | $382K | 26.5% | Yes (adopted December 19, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.88 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 52.38 (low 31, high 65).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | William Blair | Initiated | Outperform |  |
| 2026-10-14 | Stifel | Initiated | Buy | $48 |
| 2026-09-09 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Buy | $54 → $57 |
| 2026-09-01 | Citizens | Reiterated | Market Outperform | $42 |
| 2026-08-05 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $63 → $59 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wedbush | Target raised | Outperform | $58 → $60 |
| 2026-07-07 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $53 → $48 |
| 2026-07-07 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $65 → $63 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +7.5% | +53.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +7.5% | +8.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 44.3% | 51.1% |
| Max drawdown | -27.1% (Jan 2026→Jun 2026) | -68.8% (Feb 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Dividends
IDYA paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
9,079,434 shares sold short, 10.93% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 9,931,622 shares (-8.6%). Days to cover: 9.9 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 317.33 -0.45% · ORKA (Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 96.65 +0.71% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 93.07 +1.20% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 44.39 -1.14% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 143.45 -0.04% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 89.06 -0.87%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/IDYA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in IDYA's own 10-K filed 2026-02-17 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1676725/000119312526054533/idya-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Pfizer (PFE) | "our ability to maintain existing, and establish new, strategic collaborations, licensing or other arrangements and the financial terms of any such agreements, including our Clinical Study Collaboration and Supply Agreeme…" |
| Supplier | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. (GILD) | "our ability to maintain existing, and establish new, strategic collaborations, licensing or other arrangements and the financial terms of any such agreements, including our Clinical Study Collaboration and Supply Agreeme…" |
| Supplier | Cancer Research Technology | "For example, we rely on our option and license agreement with CRT for certain rights to IDE161, our exclusive license agreement with Hengrui for the rights to IDE849, and our option and license agreement with Biocytogen …" |
| Supplier | Cancer Research Technologies | "our ability to maintain existing, and establish new, strategic collaborations, licensing or other arrangements and the financial terms of any such agreements, including our Clinical Study Collaboration and Supply Agreeme…" |
| Partner | GSK | "We had been evaluating IDE705 in combination with niraparib, a selective inhibitor of PARP, in collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) pursuant to the terms of our 2020 Collaboration, Option and License Agreement." |
| Partner | Jefferies | "From January 1, 2024 through January 17, 2024, pursuant to the June 2023 Sales Agreement, we sold an aggregate of 6,115,516 shares of our common stock for aggregate net proceeds of $215.9 million at a weighted average sa…" |
| Partner | Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals | "Pharmaceuticals (Beijing) Co. Ltd. (Biocytogen), our License Agreement with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. (Hengrui Pharma), and our License Agreement with Les Laboratoires Servier (Servier);" |
| Partner | STA Pharmaceutical Hong Kong | "We have an agreement with STA Pharmaceutical Hong Kong Limited Pharmaceutical (STA Pharmaceutical), and Yuhan Corporation for the synthesis of the API for darovasertib, and agreements with STA Pharmaceutical and Patheon …" |
| Partner | Yuhan | "We have an agreement with STA Pharmaceutical Hong Kong Limited Pharmaceutical (STA Pharmaceutical), and Yuhan Corporation for the synthesis of the API for darovasertib, and agreements with STA Pharmaceutical and Patheon …" |
| Partner | STA Pharmaceutical and Patheon | "We have an agreement with STA Pharmaceutical Hong Kong Limited Pharmaceutical (STA Pharmaceutical), and Yuhan Corporation for the synthesis of the API for darovasertib, and agreements with STA Pharmaceutical and Patheon …" |
| Partner | Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals | "In July 2024, the Company entered into an Option and License Agreement (the "Biocytogen Option and License Agreement"), pursuant to which Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing) Co., Ltd. ("Biocytogen"), granted us an optio…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "The expansion has been initiated at projected efficacious target human exposures where 24-hour target EC90 coverage has been achieved."
- "IDEAYA's cash runway guidance into 2030 is unchanged based on the current operating plan."
- "As of June 30, 2026, the remaining balance for the research and development services performance obligations is $147.0 million related to the clinical development cost reimbursements anticipated under the license agreement that will be recognized as IDEAYA collaboration revenue over time as the research and development services are completed."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-1.16 | $-1.05 | −$0.11 | $7.6M | 14 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.13 | $-1.09 | −$0.05 | $19.7M | 14 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-4.57 | $-4.29 | −$0.29 | $41.0M | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-4.11 | $-3.64 | −$0.46 | $118.3M | 13 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-09): ±12.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 65.8% | ±12.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 52.2% | ±15.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 50.7% | ±18.3% |
| 2027-04-16 | 169 | 51.4% | ±27.1% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$1.22 | −$1.05 | Miss −16.2% | +1.8% |
| May 5, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$1.11 | −$0.98 | Miss −13.3% | -0.6% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.94 | −$0.95 | Beat +1.1% | +2.1% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $1.33 | −$0.55 | Beat +$1.88 | -5.4% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -5.5% |
| May 6, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -12.9% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -4.3% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +3.4% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G | Baker Bros. Advisors LP, Baker Bros. Advisors (GP) LLC: 5.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1676725/000110465926097056/0001104659-26-097056-index.htm |
| 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1676725/000119312526332774/0001193125-26-332774-index.htm |
| 2026-08-04 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1676725/000119312526331381/0001193125-26-331381-index.htm |
| 2026-07-31 | Schedule 13G | Vanguard Capital Management: 5.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1676725/000210011926001376/0002100119-26-001376-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.