# Innio N.V. (INIO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/INIO · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Innio N.V. (INIO), nexqual.com/INIO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 17.52 (-4.52% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 18.35 · day 17.42–18.68 · 52w 14.58–42.95 · market cap $13.1B · NMS

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 66.3x, net debt $1.42B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $2.69B; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($2.69B); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $4.6M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.80 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 32.7 (range 21–42).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -48.0% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -45.9% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2027-01-26, EPS estimate USD 0.18, revenue estimate $1.21B.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 66.3x · P/S 3.8x · EV/Sales 4.2x · P/B 38.9x · Earnings yield 1.51% · Net debt $1.42B · EV $14.6B

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Ai Alpine (luxembourg) S.A.R.L. |  | 103,500,000 | $2.69B | 13.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
4 purchases, $4.6M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Linebarger Norman Thomas | Director | 92,592 | $2.5M | 27 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-05 | Giadrossi Nicoletta | Director | 2,222 | $60K | 27 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-05 | Banks Lee C | Director | 37,037 | $1000K | 27 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-05 | Yetman Christopher | Director | 37,037 | $1000K | 27 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.80 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 32.7 (low 21, high 42).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $22 → $21 |
| 2026-10-28 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $40 → $42 |
| 2026-10-27 | BNP Paribas | Target lowered | Outperform | $43 → $35 |
| 2026-10-19 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $40 → $33 |
| 2026-10-14 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $47 → $40 |
| 2026-10-12 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $30 → $22 |
| 2026-07-30 | RBC Capital | Upgrade | Sector Perform → Outperform | $39 → $35 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2026-06-08) | 5Y (from 2026-06-08) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -48.0% | -45.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +79.1% |
| Per year | — | — |
| Volatility (annualized) | 88.8% | 72.9% |
| Max drawdown | -63.3% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -59.4% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Specialty Industrial Machinery)
GNRC (Generac Holdlings Inc.) USD 203.36 +1.00% · CR (Crane Company) USD 205.81 +3.72% · WTS (Watts Water Technologies, Inc.) USD 350.89 +2.34% · IEX (IDEX Corporation) USD 239.33 +0.33% · RRX (Regal Rexnord Corporation) USD 163.62 +1.57% · GGG (Graco Inc.) USD 68.75 +2.37%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/INIO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equipment | $777.6M | 66.6% | +86.3% |
| Service | $390.3M | 33.4% | +20.0% |
| Total revenue | $1.17B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | $463.0M | 39.6% | +1102.6% |
| Transactional | $268.8M | 23.0% | +23.3% |
| Power Solutions | $239.4M | 20.5% | -26.7% |
| Contractual | $121.5M | 10.4% | +13.2% |
| Compression | $75.2M | 6.4% | +44.3% |
| Total revenue | $1.17B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total North America | $715.5M | 61.3% | +291.4% |
| United States | $691.8M | 59.2% | +339.8% |
| Total Europe | $272.7M | 23.3% | -29.1% |
| Rest of World | $179.7M | 15.4% | +2.6% |
| Germany | $82.1M | 7.0% | +17.6% |
| Total revenue | $1.17B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 166.3% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-27)

- "Based on its year-to-date performance, INNIO raised its fiscal 2026 outlook for Total Revenue to $3.9 to $4.0 billion, up from $3.8 to $3.9 billion and for Adjusted EBITDA to $780 - $800 million, up from $720 to $740 million. "INNIO delivered a record quarter, exceeding $1 billion in revenue for the first time and achieving a 21% Adjusted EBITDA margin."

Analysts expect $1.21B for the current quarter, -69.3% vs the guidance midpoint $3.95B. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2109150/000162828026067394/ex991.htm

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.18 | $0.17 | +4.2% | $1.21B | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.17 | $0.15 | +7.1% | $1.21B | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.40 | $0.36 | +13.4% | $3.99B | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.84 | $0.79 | +6.3% | $5.30B | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2027-02-19 (includes earnings 2027-01-26): ±36.2%; earnings reaction alone ±4.4%; last 2 reports averaged ±14.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 86.8% | ±17.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 82.1% | ±24.5% |
| 2027-02-19 | 113 | 82.0% | ±36.2% |
| 2027-05-21 | 204 | 81.0% | ±47.4% |
| 2027-06-17 | 231 | 87.1% | ±53.5% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 | $0.15 | $0.12 | Beat +25.0% | +10.3% |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.08 | $0.05 | Beat +60.0% | -19.1% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Sep 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2109150/000162828026067448/0001628280-26-067448-index.htm |
| 2026-10-27 | 8-K | Quarterly results; Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2109150/000162828026067394/0001628280-26-067394-index.htm |
| 2026-08-13 | Schedule 13G | Advent International, L.P., Advent International GP, LLC: 86.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2109150/000114036126032833/0001140361-26-032833-index.htm |
| 2026-07-28 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2109150/000119312526319072/0001193125-26-319072-index.htm |
| 2026-07-28 | 8-K | Quarterly results; Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2109150/000119312526318820/0001193125-26-318820-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.