# Samsara Inc. (IOT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/IOT · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Samsara Inc. (IOT), nexqual.com/IOT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 44.92 (+2.60% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 43.78 · day 43.25–44.99 · 52w 23.38–47.47 · market cap $26.3B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Aug 1, 2026): revenue $1.85B, net income $90.6M (4.9% margin), free cash flow $255M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 290.5x.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $83.7M vs operating income $19.4M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈1546.2x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 12.2% effective rate).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.15 on a 1–5 scale) (26 analysts), mean target USD 52.07 (range 39–60).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +14.4% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y +101.3% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-12-03, EPS estimate USD 0.19, revenue estimate $515M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $428M | $653M | $937M | $1.25B | $1.62B | $1.85B |
| Gross profit | $304M | $470M | $690M | $951M | $1.24B | — |
| Operating income | -$354M | -$259M | -$323M | -$190M | -$52.6M | $19.4M |
| Net income | -$355M | -$247M | -$287M | -$155M | -$9.1M | $90.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.28 | -$0.48 | -$0.54 | -$0.28 | -$0.02 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$191M | -$136M | -$22.8M | $111M | $207M | $255M |
| Gross margin | 70.9% | 72.0% | 73.6% | 76.1% | 76.7% | — |
| Operating margin | -82.6% | -39.8% | -34.5% | -15.2% | -3.2% | 1.0% |
| Net margin | -82.9% | -37.9% | -30.6% | -12.4% | -0.6% | 4.9% |
| Revenue growth | +71.4% | +52.3% | +43.7% | +33.3% | +29.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $921M | $690M | $548M | $695M | $834M | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Aug 1, 2026)
P/E 290.5x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈1546.2x · P/S 14.2x · P/FCF 103.0x · P/B 16.4x · FCF yield 0.97% · Earnings yield 0.34%

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.15 on a 1–5 scale), 26 analysts; mean target USD 52.07 (low 39, high 60).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Jefferies | Initiated | Buy | $50 |
| 2026-09-15 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Initiated | Overweight | $45 |
| 2026-09-04 | BNP Paribas | Target raised | Outperform | $40 → $55 |
| 2026-09-04 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Neutral | $40 → $46 |
| 2026-09-04 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $38 → $48 |
| 2026-09-04 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $43 → $49 |
| 2026-09-04 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $48 → $52 |
| 2026-09-04 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $47 → $55 |
| 2026-09-04 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $44 → $54 |
| 2026-09-04 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $50 → $58 |
| 2026-09-04 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $50 → $55 |
| 2026-09-04 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $48 → $53 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-12-13) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +14.4% | +101.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | +14.5% | +15.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 59.2% | 63.5% |
| Max drawdown | -46.4% (Dec 2025→Feb 2026) | -66.7% (Dec 2021→Nov 2022) |

## Peers (Software - Infrastructure)
RBRK (Rubrik, Inc.) USD 128.74 +6.62% · FFIV (F5, Inc.) USD 455.42 +1.19% · CPAY (Corpay, Inc.) USD 408.46 -1.58% · VRSN (VeriSign, Inc.) USD 300.32 -1.40% · MDB (MongoDB, Inc.) USD 371.09 +2.44% · CRWV (CoreWeave, Inc.) USD 54.24 -2.46%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/IOT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in IOT's own 10-K filed 2026-03-16 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642896/000162828026018167/iot-20260131.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor | Verizon (VZ) | "Our primary competitors include vendors like Avigilon, CalAmp, Fleet Complete, Geotab, Lytx, Masternaut, Michelin, Motive, Nauto, Netradyne, Omnitracs, Orbcomm, Platform Science, Skybitz, Spireon, TrackUnit, Verizon Conn…" |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "If Amazon decided to compete with us and did not allow us to renew our commercial agreement, this may have a significant impact on our solution and would require that we allocate time and expense to setting up our Connec…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-08-01)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription revenue | $499.8M | 98.3% | +30.2% |
| Other revenue | $8.7M | 1.7% | +14.3% |
| Total revenue | $508.4M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-08-01)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $431.1M | 84.8% | +28.7% |
| Other | $77.3M | 15.2% | +36.8% |
| Total revenue | $508.4M | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $0.19 | $0.18 | +5.7% | $515.2M | 22 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $0.21 | $0.21 | +3.3% | $543.0M | 22 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-01-31) | $0.77 | $0.71 | +8.6% | $2.05B | 24 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-01-31) | $0.95 | $0.89 | +5.9% | $2.45B | 25 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-04 (includes earnings 2026-12-03): ±16.3%; earnings reaction alone ±9.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±12.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 6 | 52.9% | ±6.1% |
| 2026-11-06 | 13 | 57.3% | ±9.1% |
| 2026-11-13 | 20 | 52.2% | ±10.2% |
| 2026-11-20 | 27 | 50.2% | ±11.3% |
| 2026-11-27 | 34 | 50.0% | ±12.5% |
| 2026-12-04 | 41 | 59.9% | ±16.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 55 | 64.9% | ±20.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 83 | 55.5% | ±21.4% |