# International Paper Company (IP)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/IP · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, International Paper Company (IP), nexqual.com/IP" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 33.68 (+0.15% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 33.63 · day 33.19–34.15 · 52w 29.26–50.25 · market cap $17.8B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $24.2B, net income -$3.44B (-14.2% margin), free cash flow $492M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.2M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.2M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $313K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.91 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 45.4 (range 35–62).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -28.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -20.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 0.29, revenue estimate $6.29B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.4B | $21.2B | $16.0B | $15.8B | $23.6B | $24.2B |
| Gross profit | $5.53B | $6.02B | $4.52B | $4.44B | $7.00B | — |
| Net income | $1.75B | $1.50B | $288M | $557M | -$3.52B | -$3.44B |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.47 | $4.10 | $0.82 | $1.57 | -$6.95 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.55B | $1.24B | $692M | $757M | -$159M | $492M |
| Gross margin | 28.6% | 28.4% | 28.2% | 28.0% | 29.6% | — |
| Net margin | 9.0% | 7.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | -14.9% | -14.2% |
| Revenue growth | +10.2% | +9.3% | -24.2% | -1.2% | +49.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.29B | $804M | $1.11B | $1.17B | $1.15B | — |
| Total debt | $5.58B | $5.58B | $5.59B | $5.55B | $9.83B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.7x · EV/Sales 1.1x · P/FCF 36.3x · P/B 1.2x · FCF yield 2.76% · Earnings yield -19.28% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 5.49% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.19% · Net debt $8.49B · EV $26.3B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 34.2x, Dec 2023 43.8x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Hamic William Thomas | Exec. VP & President | 24,500 | $1.0M | 18.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-04 | Goughnour Holly G. | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 3,500 | $147K | 7.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $313K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Tozier Scott | Director | 10,000 | $313K | 31.3 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.91 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 45.4 (low 35, high 62).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $49 → $41 |
| 2026-10-07 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $46 → $42 |
| 2026-10-05 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $47 → $35 |
| 2026-10-02 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $48 → $47 |
| 2026-09-24 | Argus Research | Reiterated | Buy | $45 |
| 2026-09-23 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $61 → $62 |
| 2026-07-31 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $40 → $47 |
| 2026-07-31 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $43 → $48 |
| 2026-07-31 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $48 → $52 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $42 → $46 |
| 2026-07-31 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $46 → $49 |
| 2026-07-31 | Deutsche Bank | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | $39 → $50 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -28.0% | -20.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -28.1% | -4.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 44.8% | 34.8% |
| Max drawdown | -39.7% (Feb 2026→May 2026) | -47.1% (Jan 2025→May 2026) |

## Peers (Packaging & Containers)
BALL (Ball Corporation) USD 65.81 +2.59% · AMCR (Amcor plc) USD 46.28 +2.23% · PKG (Packaging Corporation of Americ) USD 248.92 +4.15% · SW (Smurfit WestRock plc) USD 42.43 +2.34% · AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation) USD 184.66 +3.14% · CCK (Crown Holdings, Inc.) USD 119.26 +2.62%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/IP · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS NA | $3.69B | 61.4% | -4.5% | $204.0M | 5.5% |
| PS EMEA | $2.29B | 38.1% | -0.2% | -$80.0M | -3.5% |
| Total revenue | $6.00B | 100% | — | $124.0M | 2.1% |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $3.55B | 59.1% | -3.0% |
| EMEA | $2.29B | 38.1% | -0.2% |
| Americas, other than U.S. | $169.0M | 2.8% | -9.6% |
| Pacific Rim and Asia | $2.0M | 0.0% | -77.8% |
| Total revenue | $6.00B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "Income tax provision (benefit) is excluded from target setting as we are unable to quantify certain amounts that would be required to be included in the GAAP measure without unreasonable efforts, including forecasting net income for 2026."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.29 | $0.50 | -42.7% | $6.29B | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.77 | $0.76 | +2.0% | $6.40B | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.26 | $1.39 | -8.9% | $24.56B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.09 | $2.82 | +9.7% | $26.17B | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-10-30 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±7.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 62.8% | ±7.4% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 52.3% | ±8.5% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 48.1% | ±9.4% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 46.9% | ±10.9% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 43.7% | ±11.1% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 42.1% | ±11.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 42.0% | ±13.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 39.1% | ±15.5% |