# Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/IPI · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI), nexqual.com/IPI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 30.77 (-1.38% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 31.2 · day 30.65–31.72 · 52w 22.55–50.34 · market cap $414M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 15.7x (avg 32.7x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold IPI (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $217K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($217K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.33 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 36.5 (range 29–44).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +9.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -36.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.26, revenue estimate $51.0M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | $279M | $255M | $298M | — |
| Gross profit | $55.8M | $141M | $36.8M | $29.1M | $54.8M | — |
| Operating income | $32.3M | $95.4M | -$44.0M | -$19.9M | $10.7M | $9.7M |
| Net income | $250M | $72.2M | -$35.7M | -$213M | $11.2M | $26.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $18.66 | $5.37 | -$2.80 | -$16.53 | $0.85 | — |
| Free cash flow | $59.3M | $20.1M | -$21.8M | $33.8M | $25.5M | $29.7M |
| Gross margin | — | — | 13.2% | 11.4% | 18.4% | — |
| Operating margin | — | — | -15.8% | -7.8% | 3.6% | — |
| Net margin | — | — | -12.8% | -83.6% | 3.7% | — |
| Revenue growth | — | — | — | -8.7% | +17.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $36.5M | $18.5M | $4.1M | $41.3M | $83.5M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 15.7x · P/FCF 13.9x · P/B 0.8x · FCF yield 7.17% · Earnings yield 6.35%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 32.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold IPI. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.02% | $10.6M | Added +113.9% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Lancaster Lori A | Director | 4,800 | $217K | 31.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.33 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 36.5 (low 29, high 44).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | UBS | Target raised | Sell | $26 → $29 |
| 2026-07-25 | Freedom Broker | Initiated | Buy | $45 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +9.6% | -36.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +9.7% | -8.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 53.8% | 57.8% |
| Max drawdown | -37.0% (Mar 2026→Oct 2026) | -83.7% (Apr 2022→Nov 2023) |

## Peers (Agricultural Inputs)
FMC (FMC Corporation) USD 5.02 -0.20% · UAN (CVR Partners, LP) USD 125.23 -1.46% · SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) USD 59.15 +5.76% · MOS (Mosaic Company (The)) USD 17.27 -2.32% · ICL (ICL Group Ltd.) USD 4.71 -1.26% · CTVA (Corteva, Inc.) USD 12.86 +1.10%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/IPI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trio | $35.7M | 53.6% | +7.6% |
| Potash | $30.6M | 45.9% | -10.0% |
| Corporate Segment and Other Operating | $360,000 | 0.5% | +9.1% |
| Total revenue | $66.7M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Potash | $25.2M | 37.8% | -9.3% |
| Brine Water | $2.2M | 3.3% | +56.3% |
| Salt | $2.2M | 3.2% | -31.8% |
| Magnesium Chloride | $1.0M | 1.5% | -36.7% |
| Total revenue | $66.7M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 45.9% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "For 2026, we are increasing our Trio ® full-year production guidance to a range of 295 thousand to 305 thousand tons."
- "Pecos Water Rights Matter • We recorded a $5.0 million loss contingency during the second quarter of 2026 related to anticipated water repayment and associated obligations."
- "We now expect 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $40 million."
- "The lowered guidance is a result of the removal of AMAX spend and reduction in costs for Primary Pond 8 at Wendover."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.26 | $0.00 | +7931.9% | $51.0M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.65 | $0.26 | +154.2% | $77.7M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.08 | $1.25 | +66.3% | $269.5M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.38 | $0.54 | +153.8% | $257.3M | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±12.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 55.7% | ±12.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 53.5% | ±16.9% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 51.7% | ±26.3% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 51.6% | ±33.3% |