# Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/IVR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR), nexqual.com/IVR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 5.52 (+1.85% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 5.42 · day 5.41–5.59 · 52w 5.22–9.5 · market cap $602M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 5.0x (avg 6.4x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $14K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.17 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 8.17 (range 7.25–9.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -10.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -57.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.46, revenue estimate $59.2M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | -$90.0M | -$403M | -$15.9M | $59.9M | $101M | $120M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$4.82 | -$12.21 | -$0.85 | $0.65 | $1.32 | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $357M | $176M | $77.0M | $73.4M | $56.0M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 5.0x · P/B 0.6x · Earnings yield 19.95%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 5.6x, Dec 2024 7.2x.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $14K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Gregson Mark William | Chief Financial Officer | 1,750 | $14K | 8.03 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.17 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 8.17 (low 7.25, high 9.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $8.25 → $7.75 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -10.2% | -57.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -10.2% | -15.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 23.6% | 37.6% |
| Max drawdown | -36.0% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -72.4% (Nov 2021→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
ABR (Arbor Realty Trust) USD 2.96 +2.07% · MFA (MFA Financial, Inc.) USD 6.62 +2.32% · ADAM (Adamas Trust, Inc.) USD 7.73 +3.90% · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.) USD 6.25 +3.82% · CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) USD 8.45 +2.55% · TRTX (TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.) USD 6.22 +6.32%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/IVR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in IVR's own 10-K filed 2026-02-23 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437071/000143707126000015/ivr-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | IAS Operating Partnership | "We conduct our business through IAS Operating Partnership L.P. (the "Operating Partnership") and have one operating segment." |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.46 | $0.52 | -11.9% | $59.2M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.44 | $0.51 | -13.0% | $58.0M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.93 | $2.06 | -6.2% | $225.7M | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.66 | $2.02 | -17.6% | $243.9M | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±11.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±2.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 28.7% | ±11.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 34.8% | ±15.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 55.4% | ±24.9% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 58.4% | ±35.8% |