# Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/KGS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS), nexqual.com/KGS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 44.07 (-10.10% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 49.02 · day 43.86–48.41 · 52w 32.55–77.68 · market cap $4.46B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.39B, net income $80.4M (5.8% margin), free cash flow $5.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 55.4x (avg 59.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 10.5x, net debt $2.59B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$270M vs operating income $382M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈16.3x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 28.3% effective rate).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold KGS (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 13 Form 4 filings, $2.4M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale) (15 analysts), mean target USD 80.14 (range 65–93).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +29.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +216.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.66, revenue estimate $388M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $606M | $708M | $850M | $1.16B | $1.31B | $1.39B |
| Gross profit | $236M | $266M | $317M | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $189M | $222M | $244M | $249M | $340M | $382M |
| Net income | $181M | $106M | $20.1M | $49.9M | $80.5M | $80.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.07 | $1.80 | $0.29 | $0.56 | $0.89 | — |
| Free cash flow | $48.0M | -$39.5M | $46.5M | -$9.0M | $284M | $5.0M |
| Gross margin | 38.9% | 37.6% | 37.2% | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 31.2% | 31.4% | 28.7% | 21.5% | 26.0% | 27.4% |
| Net margin | 29.8% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| Revenue growth | — | +16.7% | +20.1% | +36.3% | +12.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $28.8M | $20.4M | $5.6M | $4.8M | $3.2M | — |
| Total debt | — | $2.72B | $1.79B | $2.59B | $2.56B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 55.4x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈16.3x · P/S 3.2x · EV/EBITDA 10.5x · EV/Sales 5.1x · P/FCF 889.9x · P/B 2.1x · FCF yield 0.11% · Earnings yield 1.80% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 3.94% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.89% · Net debt $2.59B · EV $7.04B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 41.1x, Dec 2024 69.7x, Dec 2023 68.4x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold KGS. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Mandel | Lone Pine Capital | 0.39% | $63.5M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
13 of 13 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Lenamon William Chad | Executive Vice President & COO | 1,000 | $53K | 1.2% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-10-05 | McKee Robert Michael | President & CEO | 2,666 | $144K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted May 19, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-09-16 | Buhigas Pedro R. | Chief Information Officer | 3,663 | $213K | 10.2% | Yes (adopted November 21, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-14 | Hamilton Ewan William | EVP & Chief Accounting Officer | 2,729 | $169K | 9.3% | Yes (adopted March 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-09-11 | Lenamon William Chad | Executive Vice President & COO | 1,000 | $63K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-09-01 | McKee Robert Michael | President & CEO | 5,999 | $356K | 1.9% | Yes (adopted May 19, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-19 | McKee Robert Michael | President & CEO | 6,008 | $375K | 1.9% | Yes (adopted May 19, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-11 | Lenamon William Chad | Executive Vice President & COO | 1,000 | $62K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-13 | Lenamon William Chad | Executive Vice President & COO | 1,000 | $68K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-08 | Roclawski Cory Anne | EVP & CHRO | 4,169 | $285K | 14.5% | Yes (adopted September 13, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-17 | Buhigas Pedro R. | Chief Information Officer | 4,625 | $313K | 10.7% | Yes (adopted November 21, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-16 | Hamilton Ewan William | EVP & Chief Accounting Officer | 2,729 | $187K | 7.9% | Yes (adopted March 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-06-11 | Lenamon William Chad | Executive Vice President & COO | 1,000 | $68K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale), 15 analysts; mean target USD 80.14 (low 65, high 93).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $88 → $82 |
| 2026-10-09 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $86 → $82 |
| 2026-10-08 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $79 → $78 |
| 2026-10-08 | Jefferies | Target lowered | Buy | $69 → $65 |
| 2026-10-05 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $72 → $67 |
| 2026-08-13 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $84 → $88 |
| 2026-08-11 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $90 → $92 |
| 2026-08-10 | Jefferies | Target lowered | Buy | $79 → $69 |
| 2026-07-28 | Piper Sandler | Initiated | Overweight | $78 |
| 2026-07-14 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $84 → $90 |
| 2026-07-08 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $76 → $72 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2023-06-26) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +29.8% | +216.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +29.9% | +41.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 42.2% | 38.2% |
| Max drawdown | -41.8% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -41.8% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas Equipment & Services)
AROC (Archrock, Inc.) USD 28.39 -4.64% · WHD (Cactus, Inc. Class A Common Sto) USD 60.38 -5.91% · TDW (Tidewater Inc.) USD 79.61 -2.10% · WFRD (Weatherford International plc) USD 81.18 -5.04% · OII (Oceaneering International, Inc.) USD 36.62 -16.94% · WBI (WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC) USD 28.33 -5.50%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/KGS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in KGS's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1767042/000176704226000012/kgs-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Distributed Power Solutions | "Kodiak recently announced our intent to acquire Distributed Power Solutions, LLC, a leading provider of turnkey, scalable and highly-reliable distributed power solutions serving a diverse set of customers and end markets…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compression Infrastructure | $315.1M | 80.6% | +7.4% |
| Other Services | $43.1M | 11.0% | +47.1% |
| Power Infrastructure | $32.9M | 8.4% | — |
| Total revenue | $391.1M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compression Infrastructure | $315.1M | 80.6% | +7.4% |
| Service, Other | $43.1M | 11.0% | +47.1% |
| Power Infrastructure | $32.9M | 8.4% | — |
| Total revenue | $391.1M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 14% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-26).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The Company also increased full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and discretionary cash flow guidance."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.66 | $0.65 | +1.8% | $387.8M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.67 | $0.65 | +2.1% | $394.9M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.54 | $2.60 | -2.3% | $1.52B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.17 | $2.98 | +6.3% | $1.74B | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±13.1%; last 8 reports averaged ±6.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 56.8% | ±13.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 53.1% | ±17.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 54.7% | ±21.3% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 46.6% | ±25.9% |