# CarMax, Inc. (KMX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/KMX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, CarMax, Inc. (KMX), nexqual.com/KMX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 52.96 (+2.85% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 51.49 · day 50.76–52.98 · 52w 30.26–65.28 · market cap $7.52B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Aug 31, 2026): revenue $27.6B, net income $292M (1.1% margin), free cash flow $1.15B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 25.7x (avg 26.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $16.6B.
- 5 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold KMX (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 3 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $1.3M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.90 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 63.77 (range 43–96).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +22.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -63.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-12-17, EPS estimate USD 0.43, revenue estimate $6.70B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.9B | $29.7B | $26.5B | $26.4B | $25.9B | $27.6B |
| Gross profit | $3.29B | $2.80B | $2.71B | $2.90B | $2.81B | — |
| Net income | $1.15B | $485M | $479M | $501M | $247M | $292M |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.97 | $3.03 | $3.02 | $3.21 | $1.68 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$2.86B | $861M | -$6.7M | $157M | $1.24B | $1.15B |
| Gross margin | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.8% | — |
| Net margin | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Revenue growth | +68.3% | -6.9% | -10.6% | -0.7% | -1.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $0K | $230M | $484M | $127M | $8.1M | — |
| Total debt | $18.2B | $17.9B | $18.3B | $18.2B | $17.5B | — |
Fiscal years end Feb. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Aug 31, 2026)
P/E 25.7x · P/S 0.3x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/FCF 6.6x · P/B 1.2x · FCF yield 15.25% · Earnings yield 3.89% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.47% · Net debt $16.6B · EV $24.2B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Feb 2026 25.8x, Feb 2025 25.9x, Feb 2024 26.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
5 of 80 tracked investors hold KMX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillman Capital | Hillman Capital Management | 3.50% | $4.8M | Reduced -16.3% |
| First Pacific Advisors |  | 2.00% | $159M | Added +0.9% |
| Vulcan Value Partners |  | 1.47% | $48.3M | Reduced -58.6% |
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 0.18% | $18.3M | Reduced -38.3% |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.05% | $7.2M | Unchanged |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
5 purchases, $1.3M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Chawla Sona | Director | 2,000 | $107K | 53.39 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-25 | Shinder Marcella | Director | 574 | $30K | 52.01 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-24 | Oneil Mark F | Director | 9,600 | $503K | 52.36 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-22 | Bensen Peter J | Director | 2,500 | $131K | 52.2 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-22 | Barr Keith | President and CEO | 9,400 | $498K | 53.01 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.90 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 63.77 (low 43, high 96).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | B of A Securities | Upgrade | Underperform → Buy | $50 → $65 |
| 2026-09-30 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $61 → $67 |
| 2026-09-30 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $57 → $62 |
| 2026-09-30 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $47 → $53 |
| 2026-09-30 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $50 → $60 |
| 2026-09-30 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $45 → $56 |
| 2026-09-30 | Baird | Target raised | Outperform | $64 → $70 |
| 2026-09-30 | BNP Paribas | Target raised | Underperform | $33 → $48 |
| 2026-09-30 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Underperform | $45 → $50 |
| 2026-09-25 | Stephens & Co. | Target raised | Overweight | $66 → $74 |
| 2026-09-23 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $44 → $47 |
| 2026-09-18 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $60 → $70 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +22.8% | -63.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +22.9% | -18.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 54.4% | 42.9% |
| Max drawdown | -31.5% (Oct 2025→Nov 2025) | -79.1% (Nov 2021→Nov 2025) |

## Peers (Auto & Truck Dealerships)
RUSHB (Rush Enterprises, Inc.) USD 57.89 -1.14% · LAD (Lithia Motors, Inc.) USD 291.07 +8.15% · AN (AutoNation, Inc.) USD 161.84 +5.77% · OPLN (OPENLANE, Inc.) USD 38.05 +1.63% · VVV (Valvoline Inc.) USD 32.44 +4.24% · PAG (Penske Automotive Group, Inc.) USD 212.11 +0.03%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/KMX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-08-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Used vehicle sales | $6.31B | 80.1% | +19.7% |
| Wholesale vehicle sales | $1.36B | 17.2% | +18.2% |
| Total other sales and revenues | $208.4M | 2.6% | +19.5% |
| Extended protection plan revenues | $141.6M | 1.8% | +23.0% |
| Advertising & subscription revenues | $36.3M | 0.5% | -4.2% |
| Service revenues | $26.8M | 0.3% | +39.6% |
| Other | $5.5M | 0.1% | +83.3% |
| Total revenue | $7.88B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 102.7% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-09-29)

- "For more details on factors that could affect expectations, see our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended February 28, 2026, and our quarterly or current reports as filed with or furnished to the U.S."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-11-30) | $0.43 | $0.44 | -3.5% | $6.70B | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-02-28) | $0.37 | $0.30 | +26.4% | $6.49B | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-02-28) | $3.23 | $2.71 | +19.3% | $29.03B | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-02-29) | $3.53 | $3.11 | +13.5% | $29.39B | 15 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-18 (includes earnings 2026-12-17): ±16.7%; earnings reaction alone ±8.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±11.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 46.9% | ±10.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 53.4% | ±16.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 49.8% | ±19.0% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 49.3% | ±27.0% |