# El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/LOCO · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO), nexqual.com/LOCO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 15.01 (+2.67% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 14.62 · day 14.62–15.15 · 52w 8.99–17.4 · market cap $457M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 1, 2026): revenue $501M, net income $34.9M (7.0% margin), free cash flow $41.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 13.1x (avg 12.3x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.8x, net debt $16.7M.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold LOCO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 9 Form 4 filings, $10.0M; 9 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($10.0M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.29 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 20.58 (range 17–22.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +53.7% vs S&P 500 +13.2%; 5Y +17.9% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.24, revenue estimate $127M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $454M | $470M | $469M | $473M | $490M | $501M |
| Operating income | $41.3M | $30.1M | $39.8M | $41.2M | $42.0M | $52.7M |
| Net income | $29.1M | $20.8M | $25.6M | $25.7M | $26.5M | $34.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.80 | $0.57 | $0.74 | $0.86 | $0.90 | — |
| Free cash flow | $35.1M | $18.6M | $19.4M | $27.7M | $25.4M | $41.0M |
| Operating margin | 9.1% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.5% |
| Net margin | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% |
| Revenue growth | +6.6% | +3.4% | -0.3% | +0.9% | +3.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $30.0M | $20.5M | $7.3M | $2.5M | $6.2M | — |
| Total debt | $40.0M | $66.0M | $84.0M | $71.0M | $51.0M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 1, 2026)
P/E 13.1x · P/S 0.9x · EV/EBITDA 6.8x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/FCF 11.1x · P/B 1.4x · FCF yield 8.98% · Earnings yield 7.63% · Net debt $16.7M · EV $474M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 11.6x, Dec 2024 13.5x, Dec 2023 11.9x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold LOCO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $16.9M | Added +73.1% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $787K | Added +253.5% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 9 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 25,556 | $422K | 0.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-07 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 1,100 | $19K | 0% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-03…2026-08-05 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 100,000 | $1.7M | 2.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-07-29…2026-07-30 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 7,157 | $120K | 0.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-07-17 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 11,000 | $184K | 0.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-07-14…2026-07-16 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 10,493 | $175K | 0.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-07-13 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 75,000 | $1.3M | 1.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-07-01…2026-07-02 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 141,946 | $2.4M | 3.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-06-26…2026-06-30 | Biglari, Sardar |  | 222,600 | $3.7M | 5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.29 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 20.58 (low 17, high 22.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Neutral | $15 → $17 |
| 2026-08-07 | Benchmark | Target raised | Buy | $18 → $21 |
| 2026-07-01 | Freedom Capital Markets | Initiated | Buy | $22 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +53.7% | +17.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.2% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +54.1% | +3.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.7% | 33.3% |
| Max drawdown | -18.1% (Jul 2026→Sep 2026) | -44.2% (Nov 2021→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
FWRG (First Watch Restaurant Group, I) USD 11.55 +4.15% · CNNE (Cannae Holdings, Inc.) USD 16.85 +1.94% · BLMN (Bloomin' Brands, Inc.) USD 9.99 +10.02% · WEN (Wendy's Company (The)) USD 7.07 +15.15% · BJRI (BJ's Restaurants, Inc.) USD 60.51 +5.31% · SG (Sweetgreen, Inc.) USD 11.24 +9.02%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/LOCO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in LOCO's own 10-K filed 2026-03-13 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000017/loco-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Apple (AAPL) | "Customers access the program on elpolloloco.com and the El Pollo Loco iOS Apple and Android app." |
| Partner | Uber (UBER) | "We currently have partnerships with DoorDash, Postmates, Uber Eats, and Grubhub." |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.24 | $0.24 | -2.1% | $127.0M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.18 | $0.17 | +1.0% | $121.3M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.03 | $0.97 | +5.5% | $504.1M | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.11 | $1.08 | +2.5% | $525.2M | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±9.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 23 | 48.2% | ±9.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 51 | 39.6% | ±11.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 142 | 28.9% | ±17.2% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.30 | $0.28 | Beat +7.1% | -10.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.28 | $0.22 | Beat +27.3% | +4.6% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.25 | $0.20 | Beat +25.0% | +14.3% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.27 | $0.21 | Beat +28.6% | +7.5% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -1.7% |
| May 1, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -2.9% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +0.9% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | — | — | — | — | -4.7% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “On September 21, 2026, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") announced the appointment of Damon Thomas as Chief Operating Officer of the Company, effective September 21, 2026. He will report directly to Chief Executive Officer Elizabeth "Liz" Williams. Mr. Thomas, age 49, previously served as Senior Vice President, Operations at Shake Shack Enterprises, where he worked from August 2023 to September 2026. From June 2022 to August 2023, Mr. Thomas served as Vice President, Operations at Yoshinoya America.…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000051/0001606366-26-000051-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jul 1, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000047/0001606366-26-000047-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000044/0001606366-26-000044-index.htm |
| 2026-07-02 | Schedule 13D/A | BIGLARI, SARDAR, BIGLARI CAPITAL CORP.: 13.5% of shares, 5%+ holder that may seek to influence the company (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000092189526001755/0000921895-26-001755-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.