# Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/LOPE · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE), nexqual.com/LOPE" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 165.46 (+3.57% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 159.76 · day 160.32–165.83 · 52w 134.27–223.04 · market cap $4.31B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.14B, net income $224M (19.6% margin), free cash flow $243M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 19.2x (avg 20.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 194 (range 182–200).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -25.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +80.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 1.76, revenue estimate $270M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $897M | $911M | $961M | $1.03B | $1.11B | $1.14B |
| Operating income | $282M | $238M | $249M | $275M | $266M | $280M |
| Net income | $260M | $185M | $205M | $226M | $216M | $224M |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.92 | $5.73 | $6.80 | $7.73 | $7.71 | — |
| Free cash flow | $284M | $186M | $199M | $253M | $239M | $243M |
| Operating margin | 31.5% | 26.1% | 25.9% | 26.7% | 24.0% | 24.5% |
| Net margin | 29.0% | 20.3% | 21.3% | 21.9% | 19.5% | 19.6% |
| Revenue growth | +6.2% | +1.6% | +5.4% | +7.5% | +7.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $601M | $182M | $245M | $325M | $300M | — |
| Total debt | $53.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 19.2x · P/S 3.8x · P/FCF 17.8x · P/B 6.4x · FCF yield 5.62% · Earnings yield 5.20% · Buyback yield (TTM) 7.95%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 21.6x, Dec 2024 21.2x, Dec 2023 19.4x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 194 (low 182, high 200).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $185 → $182 |
| 2026-07-06 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $198 → $185 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -25.0% | +80.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -25.1% | +12.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 32.0% | 31.5% |
| Max drawdown | -38.0% (Oct 2025→Jul 2026) | -35.9% (Oct 2025→Jul 2026) |

## Peers (Education & Training Services)
CVSA (Covista Inc.) USD 131.62 +3.70% · XXI (Twenty One Capital, Inc.) USD 5.61 -4.75% · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) USD 38.79 +1.25% · LRN (Stride, Inc.) USD 80.68 +5.62% · TAL (TAL Education Group) USD 10.46 -0.85% · MH (McGraw Hill, Inc.) USD 14.8 +1.93%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/LOPE · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in LOPE's own 10-K filed 2026-02-18 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1434588/000110465926017047/lope-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | PEARSON PLC (PSO) | "The largest companies in this sector have historically been Pearson Online Learning Services, Academic Partnerships and 2U, Inc." |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 89.4% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-07-30).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "Full Year Outlook 2026 ​ 2026 Outlook Q3 2026: ● Service revenue of between $268.5 million and $270.5 million; ● Operating margin of between 19.5% and 20.0%; ● Effective tax rate of 20.8%; ● Diluted EPS of between $1.68 and $1.72; and ● 25.8 million diluted shares."
- "The diluted EPS guidance includes non-cash amortization of intangible assets net of taxes of $1.7 million, which equates to a $0.06 impact on diluted EPS."
- "The diluted EPS guidance includes non-cash amortization of intangible assets net of taxes of $1.6 million, which equates to a $0.06 impact on diluted EPS."
- "The diluted EPS guidance includes non-cash amortization of intangible assets net of taxes of $6.5 million, which equates to a $0.25 impact on diluted EPS."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.76 | $1.82 | -3.3% | $270.1M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.78 | $3.72 | +1.8% | $325.2M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $10.21 | $10.07 | +1.4% | $1.17B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $11.31 | $11.16 | +1.3% | $1.24B | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±9.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 39.9% | ±9.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 34.4% | ±10.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 34.0% | ±17.3% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 34.5% | ±22.2% |