# Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/LPX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX), nexqual.com/LPX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 74.85 (+3.21% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 72.52 · day 71.92–74.96 · 52w 62.18–100.34 · market cap $5.23B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.47B, net income $54.0M (2.2% margin), free cash flow -$21.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 96.9x (avg 28.3x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 23.7x, net debt $120M.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold LPX (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $89K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($89K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.07 on a 1–5 scale) (14 analysts), mean target USD 87.79 (range 64–107).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -16.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +24.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.21, revenue estimate $671M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.92B | $3.85B | $2.58B | $2.94B | $2.71B | $2.47B |
| Gross profit | $1.96B | $1.50B | $593M | $832M | $589M | — |
| Operating income | $1.73B | $1.25B | $287M | $530M | $209M | $74.0M |
| Net income | $1.38B | $1.09B | $178M | $420M | $146M | $54.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.09 | $13.87 | $2.46 | $5.89 | $2.08 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.23B | $730M | $16.0M | $422M | $91.0M | -$21.0M |
| Gross margin | 50.1% | 38.9% | 23.0% | 28.3% | 21.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 44.3% | 32.4% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 7.7% | 3.0% |
| Net margin | 35.2% | 28.2% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Revenue growth | +63.2% | -1.6% | -33.0% | +13.9% | -7.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $358M | $369M | $222M | $340M | $292M | — |
| Total debt | $346M | $346M | $347M | $348M | $348M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 96.9x · P/S 2.1x · EV/EBITDA 23.7x · EV/Sales 2.2x · P/B 3.0x · FCF yield -0.40% · Earnings yield 1.03% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.55% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.00% · Net debt $120M · EV $5.35B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 38.7x, Dec 2024 17.5x, Dec 2023 28.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold LPX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Chou | Chou Associates | 0.21% | $463K | Unchanged |
| Warren Buffett | Berkshire Hathaway | 0.15% | $446M | Unchanged |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.04% | $23.0M | Added +25.8% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Bruce Lizanne M | Director | 1,141 | $89K | 6.1% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.07 on a 1–5 scale), 14 analysts; mean target USD 87.79 (low 64, high 107).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $92 → $84 |
| 2026-10-14 | B of A Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $100 → $85 |
| 2026-10-12 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Sell | $74 → $64 |
| 2026-10-06 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $92 → $88 |
| 2026-09-02 | DA Davidson | Maintained | Buy | $99 |
| 2026-08-06 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $91 → $89 |
| 2026-08-06 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $93 → $92 |
| 2026-08-06 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Sell | $66 → $74 |
| 2026-08-05 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Buy | $103 → $99 |
| 2026-07-15 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $93 → $91 |
| 2026-07-14 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $85 → $101 |
| 2026-07-14 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $89 → $93 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -16.2% | +24.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -16.3% | +4.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.5% | 39.4% |
| Max drawdown | -33.7% (Feb 2026→Sep 2026) | -44.5% (Dec 2024→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Building Products & Equipment)
FBIN (Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc) USD 43.79 +6.94% · TREX (Trex Company, Inc.) USD 51.07 +4.59% · AAON (AAON, Inc.) USD 69.62 -7.46% · GFF (Griffon Corporation) USD 97 +2.50% · BLDR (Builders FirstSource, Inc.) USD 57.54 +7.53% · AWI (Armstrong World Industries Inc) USD 171.39 +1.57%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/LPX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siding | $441.0M | 66.4% | -4.1% |
| OSB | $182.0M | 27.4% | -27.2% |
| Other | $41.0M | 6.2% | -8.9% |
| Total revenue | $664.0M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siding Solutions | $1.68B | 62.0% | +8.4% |
| OS Bvalueadd | $472.0M | 17.4% | -27.4% |
| OS Bcommodity | $347.0M | 12.8% | -32.5% |
| Otherproducts | $10.0M | 0.4% | +11.1% |
| Total revenue | $2.71B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 92.6% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $2.43B | 89.7% | -6.9% |
| Canada | $669.0M | 24.7% | -0.9% |
| South America | $202.0M | 7.5% | -5.6% |
| Total revenue | $2.71B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 121.9% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Full-Year Guidance, Anticipates Return to Siding Growth in the Third Quarter of 2026 NASHVILLE, Tenn."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.21 | $0.49 | -56.7% | $671.3M | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.09 | $0.32 | -71.2% | $586.3M | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.08 | $1.77 | -38.9% | $2.49B | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.86 | $3.57 | -19.9% | $2.75B | 14 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±10.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±6.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 48.0% | ±10.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 43.7% | ±13.7% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 41.4% | ±18.8% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 41.3% | ±24.5% |