# MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MARA · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA), nexqual.com/MARA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 7.02 (-3.17% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 7.25 · day 7.01–7.53 · 52w 6.66–20.47 · market cap $2.71B · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $804M, net income -$3.46B (-430.2% margin) (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 21 Form 4 filings, $4.6M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.47 on a 1–5 scale) (15 analysts), mean target USD 18.46 (range 10–30).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -64.1% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y -86.6% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD -0.1, revenue estimate $176M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $159M | $118M | $388M | $656M | $907M | $804M |
| Gross profit | $117M | -$33.7M | -$15.3M | -$159M | — | — |
| Operating income | -$3.0M | -$674M | $221M | $306M | -$1.22B | -$2.95B |
| Net income | -$29.8M | -$694M | $261M | $541M | -$1.31B | -$3.46B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.30 | -$6.12 | $1.06 | $1.72 | -$3.69 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$293M | -$218M | -$343M | -$928M | -$1.21B | -$1.24B |
| Gross margin | 73.4% | -28.6% | -4.0% | -24.3% | — | — |
| Operating margin | -1.9% | -572.0% | 57.0% | 46.6% | -135.0% | -366.3% |
| Net margin | -18.7% | -589.4% | 67.4% | 82.5% | -144.6% | -430.2% |
| Revenue growth | +3553.0% | -26.0% | +229.1% | +69.4% | +38.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $492M | — | — | $392M | $547M | — |
| Total debt | $728M | $782M | $326M | $2.45B | $3.60B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 3.4x · P/B 1.6x · FCF yield -45.68% · Earnings yield -127.59% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.98%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 9.7x, Dec 2023 17.3x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
21 of 21 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Khan Salman Hassan | Chief Financial Officer | 16,000 | $126K | 0.8% | Yes (adopted September 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-10-01 | Thiel Frederick G | Chief Executive Officer | 27,505 | $309K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-18 | Nowaid Zabi | General Counsel | 8,376 | $101K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted September 12, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-17 | Thiel Frederick G | Chief Executive Officer | 27,505 | $315K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted May 28, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | Chief Financial Officer | 16,000 | $183K | 0.8% | Yes (adopted September 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-21 | Nowaid Zabi | General Counsel | 8,376 | $101K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted September 12, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-17 | Thiel Frederick G | Chief Executive Officer | 27,505 | $253K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted May 28, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | Chief Financial Officer | 16,000 | $147K | 0.8% | Yes (adopted September 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-20 | Nowaid Zabi | General Counsel | 8,376 | $101K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted September 12, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-17 | Thiel Frederick G | Chief Executive Officer | 27,505 | $300K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted May 28, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | Chief Financial Officer | 16,000 | $174K | 0.8% | Yes (adopted September 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-22 | Mellinger Douglas K | Director | 7,000 | $112K | 2.8% | Yes (adopted March 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | Chief Financial Officer | 16,000 | $228K | 0.7% | Yes (adopted September 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-17 | Nowaid Zabi | General Counsel | 7,000 | $100K | 0.7% | Yes (adopted September 12, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-17 | Thiel Frederick G | Chief Executive Officer | 27,505 | $392K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted May 28, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-18 | Thiel Frederick G | Chief Executive Officer | 27,505 | $330K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted May 28, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-18 | Khan Salman Hassan | Chief Financial Officer | 16,000 | $192K | 0.7% | Yes (adopted September 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-18 | Nowaid Zabi | General Counsel | 8,250 | $99K | 0.8% | Yes (adopted September 12, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-04-17 | Thiel Frederick G | Chief Executive Officer | 27,505 | $321K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted May 28, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-17 | Nowaid Zabi | General Counsel | 42,090 | $505K | 4% | Yes (adopted September 12, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.47 on a 1–5 scale), 15 analysts; mean target USD 18.46 (low 10, high 30).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $13 → $11 |
| 2026-10-12 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Underweight | $11 → $10 |
| 2026-09-18 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Underweight | $6 → $11 |
| 2026-09-14 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Overweight → Underweight | $13 → $11 |
| 2026-08-13 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Underweight | $5.5 → $6 |
| 2026-08-07 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target lowered | Overweight | $14 → $12 |
| 2026-08-07 | Rosenblatt | Maintained | Buy | $15 |
| 2026-07-17 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $16 → $13 |
| 2026-07-08 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Underweight | $7 → $5.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -64.1% | -86.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | -64.2% | -33.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 84.4% | 104.3% |
| Max drawdown | -65.6% (Oct 2025→Feb 2026) | -95.5% (Nov 2021→Dec 2022) |

## Peers (Capital Markets)
MIAX (Miami International Holdings, I) USD 33.98 -2.89% · LAZ (Lazard, Inc.) USD 37.21 -0.24% · MC (Moelis & Company) USD 54.53 -0.96% · PIPR (Piper Sandler Companies) USD 64.63 -1.39% · RIOT (Riot Platforms, Inc.) USD 12.53 -2.79% · VIRT (Virtu Financial, Inc.) USD 55.93 -0.57%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MARA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Participant | $12.8M | 7.3% | +15.8% |
| Operator Transaction Fees | $1.0M | 0.6% | -65.7% |
| Total revenue | $174.9M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 7.9% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Together, these actions are expected to expand our power portfolio up to 4.8 GW, establishing one of the largest powered land portfolios in the industry."
- "SHAREHOLDER LETTER Q2 2026 5 The four largest hyperscalers alone are expected to invest approximately $725 billion in AI infrastructure during 2026, with annual capital expenditures projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2027."
- "At the same time, U.S. data center electricity demand is expected to increase from approximately 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 41 gigawatts in 2026 before reaching 66 gigawatts in 2027, while new power generation and transmission continue to lag demand."
- "With more than 70% of its power output contracted under long-term agreements, we expect Long Ridge will enhance our earnings profile while significantly expanding our AI infrastructure opportunity."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.10 | $0.20 | -151.3% | $175.7M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.37 | $-0.20 | -768.3% | $183.9M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-3.54 | $-3.75 | -5.5% | $707.1M | 1 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.34 | $-1.27 | -73.3% | $805.3M | 2 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±15.6%; earnings reaction alone ±6.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±6.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 95.8% | ±10.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 99.7% | ±15.6% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 98.7% | ±18.9% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 97.0% | ±21.4% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 98.0% | ±24.1% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 93.2% | ±25.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 93.1% | ±29.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 92.2% | ±34.9% |