# Mattel, Inc. (MAT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MAT · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Mattel, Inc. (MAT), nexqual.com/MAT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 16.94 (-0.06% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 16.95 · day 16.78–17.08 · 52w 12.4–22.48 · market cap $4.84B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $5.49B, net income $427M (7.8% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 11.3x (avg 19.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 11.0x, net debt $1.81B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $142M vs operating income $429M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈15.8x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 14.9% effective rate).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MAT (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.47 on a 1–5 scale) (15 analysts), mean target USD 18.46 (range 11–28).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -11.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -17.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.94, revenue estimate $1.83B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.46B | $5.43B | $5.44B | $5.38B | $5.35B | $5.49B |
| Gross profit | $2.63B | $2.48B | $2.58B | $2.73B | $2.61B | — |
| Operating income | $730M | $676M | $562M | $694M | $546M | $429M |
| Net income | $903M | $394M | $214M | $542M | $398M | $427M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.53 | $1.10 | $0.60 | $1.58 | $1.24 | — |
| Gross margin | 48.1% | 45.7% | 47.5% | 50.8% | 48.7% | — |
| Operating margin | 13.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | 16.5% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% |
| Revenue growth | +18.9% | -0.4% | +0.1% | -1.1% | -0.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $731M | $761M | $1.26B | $1.39B | $1.24B | — |
| Total debt | $2.57B | $2.33B | $2.33B | $2.33B | $2.33B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 11.3x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈15.8x · P/S 0.9x · EV/EBITDA 11.0x · EV/Sales 1.2x · P/B 2.4x · Earnings yield 8.83% · Buyback yield (TTM) 14.26% · Net debt $1.81B · EV $6.65B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 16.1x, Dec 2024 11.2x, Dec 2023 31.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold MAT. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Hawkins | Southeastern Asset Management | 8.92% | $171M | Reduced -3.8% |
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 2.13% | $214M | Added +13.6% |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.47 on a 1–5 scale), 15 analysts; mean target USD 18.46 (low 11, high 28).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $15 → $17 |
| 2026-10-12 | Seaport Global | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $20 |
| 2026-08-25 | Argus Research | Reiterated | Buy | $22 |
| 2026-07-14 | Roth Capital | Target lowered | Neutral | $16 → $15 |
| 2026-07-10 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $16 → $15 |
| 2026-07-09 | Goldman Sachs | Downgrade | Neutral → Sell | $15 → $12 |
| 2026-06-26 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Neutral | $18 → $15 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -11.7% | -17.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -11.7% | -3.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 44.8% | 35.8% |
| Max drawdown | -42.9% (Jan 2026→Sep 2026) | -49.7% (May 2022→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Leisure)
GOLF (Acushnet Holdings Corp.) USD 81.97 +2.50% · PLNT (Planet Fitness, Inc.) USD 53.27 +3.06% · YETI (YETI Holdings, Inc.) USD 44.03 +2.95% · CALY (Callaway Golf Company) USD 14.36 +2.21% · LTH (Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.) USD 41.99 +3.02% · OSW (OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited) USD 24.29 +1.50%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MAT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in MAT's own 10-K filed 2026-02-23 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Walmart (WMT) | "During 2025, Mattel's three largest customers (Walmart at $1.08 billion, Target at $0.63 billion, and Amazon at $0.52 billion) accounted for approximately 42% of worldwide consolidated net sales." |
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "During 2025, Mattel's three largest customers (Walmart at $1.08 billion, Target at $0.63 billion, and Amazon at $0.52 billion) accounted for approximately 42% of worldwide consolidated net sales." |
| Partner | Walt Disney (DIS) | "Mattel continues to build upon its strong licensed doll partnerships with Disney for the Disney Princess and Disney Frozen product lines and expects to launch its KPop Demon Hunters dolls line for Netflix in Spring of 20…" |
| Partner | Netflix (NFLX) | "Mattel continues to build upon its strong licensed doll partnerships with Disney for the Disney Princess and Disney Frozen product lines and expects to launch its KPop Demon Hunters dolls line for Netflix in Spring of 20…" |
| Partner | Nintendo | "Little People will look to continue leveraging its distinctive form factor and style to unlock multi-category growth, including the launch of a new partnership with Nintendo." |
| Partner | Microsoft (MSFT) | "Mattel Action Figures will continue to collaborate with key licensor partners, such as Disney Pixar, Microsoft, NBCUniversal, Warner Bros., and WWE to bring innovative products to the global marketplace." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $574.3M | 51.0% | +12.4% | $92.0M | 16.0% |
| International | $551.0M | 49.0% | +8.5% | $81.9M | 14.9% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | $163.0M | — |
| Total revenue | $1.13B | 100% | — | $10.9M | 1.0% |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $574.3M | 51.0% | +12.4% |
| Non-North America | $551.0M | 49.0% | +8.5% |
| — EMEA (part of Non-North America) | $301.5M | 26.8% | +8.7% |
| — Latin America (part of Non-North America) | $139.9M | 12.4% | +8.8% |
| — Asia Pacific (part of Non-North America) | $109.6M | 9.7% | +7.8% |
| Total revenue | $1.13B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "Guidance does not include any potential impact of tariff refunds."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.94 | $1.01 | -7.3% | $1.83B | 12 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.56 | $0.49 | +13.4% | $1.85B | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.30 | $1.33 | -2.4% | $5.67B | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.58 | $1.61 | -1.7% | $5.97B | 14 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±11.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 52.2% | ±11.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 61.2% | ±19.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 41.3% | ±16.0% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 52.4% | ±24.0% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 41.0% | ±24.0% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 31.7% | ±22.2% |