# MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MBX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX), nexqual.com/MBX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 50.46 (-6.43% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 53.93 · day 50.25–54.99 · 52w 14.61–72.64 · market cap $2.43B · NMS

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $2.7M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($49K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.73 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 95.7 (range 80–150).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +212.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +113.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.84, revenue estimate $0K.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -$35.3M | -$68.2M | -$98.1M | -$118M |
| Net income | -$32.6M | -$61.9M | -$87.0M | -$104M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$31.96 | -$5.82 | -$2.38 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$32.1M | -$55.6M | -$81.9M | -$85.2M |
| Cash + short-term investments | $80.7M | $262M | $374M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/B 5.9x · FCF yield -3.51% · Earnings yield -4.29%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Azoulay Salomon | Chief Medical Officer | 370 | $24K | 2.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-08 | Azoulay Salomon | Chief Medical Officer | 70,003 | $2.7M | 82.6% | Yes (adopted January 27, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-06 | Azoulay Salomon | Chief Medical Officer | 231 | $7K | 1.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-06 | Hawryluk P. Kent | President & CEO | 607 | $18K | 0% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.73 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 95.7 (low 80, high 150).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $70 → $84 |
| 2026-10-02 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Buy | $88 → $150 |
| 2026-08-10 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $70 → $88 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mizuho | Target raised | Outperform | $57 → $91 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2024-09-09) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +212.8% | +113.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +214.1% | +43.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 77.0% | 97.0% |
| Max drawdown | -37.6% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -74.9% (Oct 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 307.82 -2.21% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 90.9 +2.57% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.14 -3.28% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 258.92 +0.96% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 43.91 -0.81% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 90.23 -3.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MBX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The Company expects to present preclinical data from MBX 6180 at a scientific meeting in the fourth quarter of 2026."
- "Anticipated Milestones Canvuparatide • Q3 2026: Initiation of pivotal Phase 3 oPTimize trial MBX 4291 • Q4 2026: Results from the first cohort of the 12-week MAD (Part C) portion of the ongoing Phase 1 trial Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results • Cash and Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities : As of June 30, 2026, MBX had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $418.6 million."
- "Based on its current operating plan, the Company expects the combined cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities balance to fund operations into 2029. • R&D Expenses : Research and development expenses for the three months ended June 30, 2026, were $31.0 million, compared to $17.7 million for the same period in 2025."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.84 | $-0.74 | +14.4% | $0 | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.93 | $-0.84 | +10.7% | $0 | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-3.05 | $-2.75 | +11.1% | $0 | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-3.98 | $-3.93 | +1.2% | $0 | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±22.1%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 98.5% | ±22.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 114.9% | ±35.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 109.9% | ±41.7% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 92.4% | ±50.0% |