# McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MCD · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, McDonald's Corporation (MCD), nexqual.com/MCD" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 252.63 (+2.59% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 252.63 · day 246.47–252.79 · 52w 229.2–341.75 · market cap null · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $27.7B, net income $8.79B (31.7% margin), free cash flow $7.76B (SEC filings).
- 7 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MCD (13F, Q2 2026 (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early)): 0 new, 1 added, 3 reduced, 3 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $3.3M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 4 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -15.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +19.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 3.38, revenue estimate $7.29B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.2B | $23.2B | $25.5B | $25.9B | $26.9B | $27.7B |
| Operating income | $10.4B | $9.37B | $11.6B | $11.7B | $12.4B | $12.8B |
| Net income | $7.55B | $6.18B | $8.47B | $8.22B | $8.56B | $8.79B |
| EPS (diluted) | $10.04 | $8.33 | $11.56 | $11.39 | $11.95 | — |
| Free cash flow | $7.10B | $5.49B | $7.25B | $6.67B | $7.19B | $7.76B |
| Operating margin | 44.6% | 40.4% | 45.7% | 45.2% | 46.1% | 46.2% |
| Net margin | 32.5% | 26.6% | 33.2% | 31.7% | 31.9% | 31.7% |
| Revenue growth | +20.9% | -0.2% | +10.0% | +1.7% | +3.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $4.71B | $2.58B | $4.58B | $1.08B | $774M | — |
| Total debt | $35.6B | $35.9B | $39.3B | $38.4B | $40.7B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)

P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 25.6x, Dec 2024 25.4x, Dec 2023 25.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
7 of 80 tracked investors hold MCD (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early). Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 2.18% | $765M | Reduced -21.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Jensen Investment Management |  | 1.48% | $61.0M | Reduced -18.4% | Q2 2026 |
| David Katz | Matrix Asset Advisors | 1.20% | $14.6M | Added +410.8% | Q3 2026 |
| Bill Gates | Gates Foundation Trust | 0.26% | $90.5M | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.03% | $3.8M | Reduced -1.7% | Q2 2026 |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | <0.01% | $1.7M | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |
| Thomas Russo | Gardner Russo & Quinn | <0.01% | $256K | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
5 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | President, McDonald's USA | 5,252 | $1.5M | 40.4% | Yes | Routine (sold in Feb & Jun & Jul & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-28 | Ralls-Morrison Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | 2,763 | $769K | 30.6% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-26 | Erlinger Joseph M. | President, McDonald's USA | 333 | $93K | 4.1% | Yes | Routine (sold in Feb & Jun & Jul & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | President, McDonald's USA | 333 | $101K | 4% | Yes | Routine (sold in Feb & Jun & Jul & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | President, McDonald's USA | 2,626 | $806K | 23.8% | Yes | Routine (sold in Feb & Jun & Jul & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $305 → $295 |
| 2026-10-08 | Bernstein | Target lowered | Market Perform | $295 → $250 |
| 2026-10-06 | Keybanc | Target lowered | Overweight | $305 → $280 |
| 2026-10-05 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $300 → $270 |
| 2026-10-05 | Guggenheim | Target lowered | Neutral | $290 → $250 |
| 2026-09-29 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $260 → $250 |
| 2026-09-28 | Melius Research | Target lowered | Sell | $250 → $230 |
| 2026-09-28 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $308 → $297 |
| 2026-09-24 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $335 → $310 |
| 2026-09-24 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $280 → $260 |
| 2026-09-24 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $320 → $300 |
| 2026-09-24 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $290 → $285 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -15.6% | +19.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -15.6% | +3.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| Max drawdown | -31.0% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -30.7% (Feb 2026→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
SBUX (Starbucks Corporation) USD 101.91 +2.86% · YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) USD 154.45 +2.12% · CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.) USD 28.14 +0.07% · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) USD 76.41 +3.05% · DRI (Darden Restaurants, Inc.) USD 217.56 +1.42% · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) USD 44.76 +0.67%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MCD · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name MCD in their own reports (relationship from MCD's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| supplier | Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) | 10-K 2026-07-24 | "Our largest customer, McDonald's Corporation, accounted for approximately 15%, 15%, and 14% of our consolidated net sales in fiscal 2026, 2025, and 2024, respectively." |
| customer | Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) | 20-F 2026-04-30 | "The Company's joint ventures in Argentina, Chile and Mexico operate as a joint venture under the traditional definition used within the McDonald's system for such business arrangements." |
| partner | House of Doge Inc. (HODO) | 10-K 2026-03-31 | "Loyalty Cup," a Brag House tournament, in 2021 in collaboration with McDonald's and Coca-Cola, where college students from" |
| partner | Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) | 10-K 2026-03-06 | "During fiscal 2025, we recorded $39.4 million non-cash long-lived asset impairment charges and $37.0 million non-cash lease impairment and termination costs in response to management's updated forecas…" |
| supplier | GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) | 10-K 2026-03-02 | "Quick-service restaurant customers include Chick-fil-A, McDonald's, Wendy's, Panda Express, Dairy Queen, Chipotle, Panera and KFC." |
| competitor | Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) | 10-K 2026-02-27 | "KFC's competitors in China are primarily western QSR brands such as McDonald's, Dicos and Burger King, and to a lesser extent, domestic QSR brands in China." |
| supplier | PILGRIMS PRIDE CORP (PPC) | 10-K 2026-02-12 | "Our sales efforts are largely targeted towards the foodservice industry, principally chain restaurants and food processors, such as Chick-fil-A® and retail customers, including grocery store chains an…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | $3.60B | 50.8% | +4.1% | $1.72B | 47.8% |
| U.S. Market | $2.83B | 39.8% | +1.7% | $1.57B | 55.6% |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets and Corporate | $669.0M | 9.4% | +11.5% | $42.0M | 6.3% |
| Total revenue | $7.10B | 100% | — | $3.34B | 47.0% |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the risk factors discussed in Exhibit 99.2 to the Company's Form 8-K filing on August 4, 2026."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.38 | $3.44 | -1.5% | $7.29B | 27 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.29 | $3.34 | -1.8% | $7.24B | 27 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $12.89 | $12.94 | -0.4% | $28.14B | 31 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $13.75 | $14.15 | -2.8% | $28.92B | 32 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±4.6%; earnings reaction alone ±2.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±2.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 23.0% | ±2.9% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 27.6% | ±4.6% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 26.0% | ±5.2% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 24.5% | ±5.7% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 23.8% | ±6.1% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 23.4% | ±6.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 22.9% | ±7.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 22.5% | ±8.8% |