# Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MCRI · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI), nexqual.com/MCRI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 112.68 (-0.72% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 113.5 · day 111.8–113.68 · 52w 88.13–135.93 · market cap $2.02B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $562M, net income $115M (20.4% margin), free cash flow $154M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 17.6x (avg 18.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.2M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.2M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (2 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.83 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 126.5 (range 114–144).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +25.2% vs S&P 500 +14.0%; 5Y +75.4% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 1.8, revenue estimate $148M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $395M | $478M | $501M | $522M | $545M | $562M |
| Gross profit | $89.9M | $111M | $110M | $92.5M | $127M | — |
| Net income | $68.5M | $87.5M | $82.4M | $72.8M | $101M | $115M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.53 | $4.47 | $4.20 | $3.84 | $5.43 | — |
| Free cash flow | $81.2M | $100M | $124M | $93.3M | $128M | $154M |
| Gross margin | 22.7% | 23.3% | 22.0% | 17.7% | 23.4% | — |
| Net margin | 17.3% | 18.3% | 16.4% | 13.9% | 18.6% | 20.4% |
| Revenue growth | +114.4% | +20.9% | +4.9% | +4.1% | +4.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $33.5M | $38.8M | $43.4M | $58.8M | $96.5M | — |
| Total debt | $68.2M | — | $5.5M | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 17.6x · P/S 3.6x · P/FCF 13.1x · P/B 3.5x · FCF yield 7.64% · Earnings yield 5.68% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.07% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.48%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 17.6x, Dec 2024 20.6x, Dec 2023 16.5x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Farahi John | CEO | 5,000 | $620K | 0.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-28 | Farahi John | CEO | 5,000 | $604K | 0.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.83 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 126.5 (low 114, high 144).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Macquarie | Target lowered | Neutral | $128 → $125 |
| 2026-08-17 | Macquarie | Target raised | Neutral | $125 → $128 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $116 → $114 |
| 2026-07-21 | Stifel | Target raised | Hold | $102 → $128 |
| 2026-07-20 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $125 → $144 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $99 → $116 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +25.2% | +75.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.0% | +76.9% |
| Per year | +25.4% | +11.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 25.0% | 30.2% |
| Max drawdown | -15.3% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -37.6% (Mar 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Resorts & Casinos)
PENN (PENN Entertainment, Inc.) USD 14.5 -6.21% · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) USD 35.89 -3.21% · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) USD 3.73 -5.81% · VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co) USD 109.31 -3.21% · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.) USD 49.61 -1.63% · BYD (Boyd Gaming Corporation) USD 71.69 -0.80%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MCRI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in MCRI's own 10-K filed 2026-02-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/907242/000110465926018717/mcri-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Monarch Black Hawk | "In connection with the expansion of the Monarch Black Hawk and the related disputes described above, our general contractor PCL and certain subcontractors have provided Monarch with notice of purported liens against the …" |
| Supplier | PCL Construction Services | "In connection with the expansion of the Monarch Black Hawk and the related disputes described above, our general contractor PCL and certain subcontractors have provided Monarch with notice of purported liens against the …" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casino | $81.5M | 57.2% | +2.5% |
| Food & Beverage | $33.2M | 23.3% | +3.1% |
| Occupancy | $21.6M | 15.1% | +13.0% |
| Hotel Other | $6.3M | 4.4% | +4.5% |
| Total revenue | $142.6M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-21)

- "Capital expenditures of $5 million in the second quarter of 2026 were funded from operating cash flow and included costs related to ongoing maintenance capital projects at both properties."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.79 | $1.70 | +5.6% | $148.1M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.70 | $1.64 | +3.7% | $143.0M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.64 | $6.67 | -0.4% | $570.2M | 1 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $6.89 | $6.89 | +0.0% | $581.4M | 2 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-27): ±9.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 41.7% | ±9.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 30.8% | ±9.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 28.4% | ±14.5% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 28.6% | ±18.4% |