# Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MDGL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL), nexqual.com/MDGL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 453.34 (-1.01% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 453.34 · day 452.08–462.5 · 52w 393.61–615 · market cap null · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.28B, net income -$325M (-25.3% margin), free cash flow -$206M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $11.8M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($2.1M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale) (19 analysts), mean target USD 685.22 (range 533–962).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +7.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +478.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD -1.09, revenue estimate $405M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0K | $0K | $0K | $180M | $958M | $1.28B |
| Gross profit | — | $0K | $0K | $174M | — | — |
| Operating income | -$242M | -$294M | -$380M | -$498M | -$300M | -$323M |
| Net income | -$242M | -$295M | -$374M | -$466M | -$288M | -$325M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$14.63 | -$17.23 | -$19.99 | -$21.90 | -$12.85 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$184M | -$225M | -$326M | -$457M | -$190M | -$206M |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | 96.5% | — | — |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | -276.4% | -31.3% | -25.1% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | -258.6% | -30.1% | -25.3% |
| Revenue growth | — | — | — | — | +432.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $270M | $359M | $634M | $931M | $984M | — |
| Total debt | $0K | $69.7M | $115M | $118M | $340M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)


## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09…2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | President and CEO | 11,583 | $6.2M | 5.5% | Yes (adopted June 5, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-17 | Kelley Shannon T | General Counsel | 664 | $342K | 5.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | President and CEO | 2,500 | $1.4M | 1.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-01 | Soergel David | Chief Medical Officer | 1,042 | $517K | 9.4% | Yes (adopted March 2, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | Director | 5,682 | $2.9M | 20.5% | Yes (adopted February 20, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-18 | Soergel David | Chief Medical Officer | 844 | $435K | 7.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale), 19 analysts; mean target USD 685.22 (low 533, high 962).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Citigroup | Initiated | Buy | $725 |
| 2026-08-04 | Wolfe Research | Upgrade | Peer Perform → Outperform | $605 |
| 2026-08-03 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $964 → $962 |
| 2026-07-29 | Canaccord Genuity | Target raised | Buy | $578 → $587 |
| 2026-07-27 | Wells Fargo | Initiated | Overweight | $685 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +7.0% | +478.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +7.0% | +42.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 43.4% | 87.5% |
| Max drawdown | -29.4% (Dec 2025→Mar 2026) | -61.4% (Apr 2023→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
BMRN (BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.) USD 56.63 +2.57% · PCVX (Vaxcyte, Inc.) USD 62.85 -0.60% · TECH (Bio-Techne Corp) USD 72.62 -0.03% · KRYS (Krystal Biotech, Inc.) USD 320.13 -0.63% · CORT (Corcept Therapeutics Incorporat) USD 107.5 -7.55% · KYMR (Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 110.85 -1.58%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MDGL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in MDGL's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157601/000162828026009514/mdgl-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Corden Pharma | "We have also entered into a supply agreement (the "Corden Supply Agreement") with Corden Pharma GmbH ("Corden"), a German-based manufacturer, for the primary commercial supply of Rezdiffra tablets in Europe and to serve …" |
| Supplier | Evonik | "In December 2024, we entered into a Resmetirom Commercial Supply Agreement (the "Evonik Agreement") with Evonik Corporation ("Evonik")." |
| Supplier | UPM Pharmaceuticals | "In addition, in August 2023, we entered into a Commercial Supply Agreement (the "UPM Agreement") with UPM Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ("UPM") for the primary commercial supply of Rezdiffra tablets in the United States." |
| Partner | CSPC Pharmaceutical Group | "•In July 2025, we entered into an exclusive global license agreement (the "CSPC License Agreement") with CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited ("CSPC") for MGL-2086 (formerly SYH2086), an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist." |
| Partner | Pfizer (PFE) | "In December 2025, we entered into an exclusive global license agreement with Pfizer (the "Pfizer License Agreement") to develop, manufacture and commercialize ervogastat, a Phase 2 oral DGAT-2 inhibitor, and two addition…" |
| Partner | Suzhou Ribo Life Science | "•In February 2026, we announced an exclusive global license agreement (the "Ribocure License Agreement") with Suzhou Ribo Life Science Co. Ltd. and Ribocure Pharmaceuticals AB (together, "Ribocure") for six novel siRNA p…" |
| Partner | Blue Owl | "On July 17, 2025, we entered into a Financing Agreement with certain funds managed by Blue Owl Corporation as the lenders (the "Lenders") and LSI Financing LLC as the administrative agent (as amended, the "Financing Agre…" |
| Partner | LSI Financing | "On July 17, 2025, we entered into a Financing Agreement with certain funds managed by Blue Owl Corporation as the lenders (the "Lenders") and LSI Financing LLC as the administrative agent (as amended, the "Financing Agre…" |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 28%, 20%, 16%, 14%, 12% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-07-30).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "This patent is expected to provide protection into 2045. ▪ U.S."
- "This patent is expected to provide protection into 2042. ◦ F4c: The USPTO also issued a new patent, U.S."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-1.09 | $-1.03 | +5.2% | $405.1M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.42 | $-0.19 | +122.4% | $446.3M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-6.49 | $-6.52 | -0.5% | $1.53B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $9.63 | $12.38 | -22.3% | $2.12B | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±14.1%; last 8 reports averaged ±11.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 62.8% | ±14.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 56.2% | ±17.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 52.4% | ±20.1% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 57.7% | ±29.1% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 57.2% | ±31.5% |