# Medline Inc. (MDLN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MDLN · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Medline Inc. (MDLN), nexqual.com/MDLN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 32.37 (-0.03% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 32.38 · day 32.06–32.72 · 52w 31.49–50.88 · market cap $43.6B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $28.6B, net income $1.03B (3.6% margin), free cash flow $1.59B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 42.4x, EV/EBITDA 17.6x, net debt $9.90B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$807M vs operating income $2.03B over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈25.5x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 15.5% effective rate).
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MDLN (13F, Q2 2026 (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early)): 0 new, 1 added, 3 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 9 Form 4 filings, $4.76B; 8 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.75B); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $171K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale) (27 analysts), mean target USD 44.31 (range 34–55).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -21.1% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y -22.3% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.35, revenue estimate $7.72B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.2B | $25.5B | — | $28.4B | $28.6B |
| Gross profit | $5.88B | $6.98B | — | $7.52B | — |
| Operating income | $1.25B | $2.15B | — | $2.21B | $2.03B |
| Net income | $234M | $1.16B | $1.15B | $1.16B | $1.03B |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | -$0.01 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.41B | $1.42B | — | $1.30B | $1.59B |
| Gross margin | 25.3% | 27.3% | — | 26.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 5.4% | 8.4% | — | 7.8% | 7.1% |
| Net margin | 1.0% | 4.6% | — | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Revenue growth | — | +9.8% | — | +11.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.58B | $199M | — | $1.94B | — |
| Total debt | — | $16.5B | — | $12.6B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026)
P/E 42.4x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈25.5x · P/S 1.5x · EV/EBITDA 17.6x · EV/Sales 1.9x · P/FCF 27.4x · P/B 3.8x · FCF yield 3.65% · Earnings yield 2.36% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.03% · Net debt $9.90B · EV $53.5B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold MDLN (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early). Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Mandel | Lone Pine Capital | 5.06% | $827M | Added +77.9% | Q2 2026 |
| John Armitage | Egerton Capital | 4.69% | $461M | Reduced -19.4% | Q3 2026 |
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 1.01% | $104M | Reduced -63.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 0.54% | $191M | Reduced -57.7% | Q2 2026 |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 9 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Gic Private Ltd |  | 7,816,987 | $275M | 8.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-10-02…2026-10-06 | Gic Private Ltd |  | 20,678,630 | $722M | 18.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-13…2026-08-14 | Gic Private Ltd |  | 1,600,000 | $57.3M | 1.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-07 | Gic Private Ltd |  | 590,284 | $21.0M | 0.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-05…2026-08-06 | Gic Private Ltd |  | 2,248,612 | $80.0M | 1.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-16 | Golwas Douglas P | Chief Commercial Officer | 100,000 | $3.7M | 21.5% | Yes (adopted March 11, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (parallel), L.P. |  | 31,868,237 | $1.16B | 31% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-28 | Bcp 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. |  | 33,317,824 | $1.22B | 94.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-28 | Bx Mozart Ml-2 Holdco L.P. |  | 33,317,824 | $1.22B | 94.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $171K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Corcoran Jessi L | Principal Accounting Officer | 5,000 | $171K | 34.15 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale), 27 analysts; mean target USD 44.31 (low 34, high 55).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $48 → $45 |
| 2026-10-09 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $45 → $43 |
| 2026-09-25 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $45 → $43 |
| 2026-08-27 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $55 |
| 2026-08-12 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $53 → $46 |
| 2026-08-11 | Tigress Financial | Target lowered | Buy | $62 → $55 |
| 2026-08-11 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $45 → $34 |
| 2026-08-10 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $53 → $45 |
| 2026-08-06 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $53 → $46 |
| 2026-08-06 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $56 → $47 |
| 2026-08-06 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $48 → $39 |
| 2026-08-06 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $50 → $45 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-12-17) | 5Y (from 2025-12-15) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -21.1% | -22.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | — | — |
| Volatility (annualized) | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| Max drawdown | -36.7% (Feb 2026→Sep 2026) | -36.5% (Feb 2026→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Medical Instruments & Supplies)
BDX (Becton, Dickinson and Company) USD 195.16 +0.07% · RMD (ResMed Inc.) USD 250.17 -0.25% · ALC (Alcon Inc.) USD 69.83 +0.59% · WST (West Pharmaceutical Services, I) USD 403.64 +1.34% · SOLV (Solventum Corporation) USD 81.85 -1.36% · BAX (Baxter International Inc.) USD 25.46 +2.17%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MDLN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in MDLN's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000204638626000009/mdln-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | McKesson (MCK) | "Additionally, other distributors of med-surg products similarly connect the fragmented supplier and provider bases and aggregate inventory from suppliers to deliver products to customers, such as McKesson, Cardinal Healt…" |
| Supplier | Cardinal Health (CAH) | "Additionally, other distributors of med-surg products similarly connect the fragmented supplier and provider bases and aggregate inventory from suppliers to deliver products to customers, such as McKesson, Cardinal Healt…" |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "Additionally, when we sell products through large online commerce solutions, such as Amazon, we forfeit our ability to establish pricing or differentiate in placement among competitor products and are required to pay a p…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply Chain Solutions | $4.14B | 53.9% | +16.3% |
| Medline Brand | $3.54B | 46.1% | +6.6% |
| Total revenue | $7.68B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Line Care | $1.65B | 21.5% | +3.8% |
| Surgical Solutions | $1.64B | 21.3% | +8.7% |
| Laboratory and Diagnostics | $248.0M | 3.2% | +12.2% |
| Total revenue | $7.68B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 46.1% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $7.15B | 93.1% | +11.8% |
| International | $533.0M | 6.9% | +9.4% |
| Total revenue | $7.68B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "The Company is updating its full year 2026 outlook for Organic Sales 2 growth to 9.0% to 10.0%, compared to its previous outlook of 8.5% to 9.5%, reflecting strong existing and new customer demand."
- "The Company updated its Adjusted EBITDA 2 outlook to $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion, compared to its previous outlook of $3.5 to $3.6 billion, primarily reflecting higher than expected inflationary pressure from the Middle East conflict, increased operational investments to support customer demand, quality remediation efforts, and retail channel softness."
- "The Organic Sales 2 reflects IEEPA tariff customer repayments and the Adjusted EBITDA 2 outlook does not reflect the benefit of IEEPA tariff refunds."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.35 | $0.39 | -10.6% | $7.72B | 23 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.40 | $0.48 | -16.6% | $8.47B | 22 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.54 | $1.51 | +1.5% | $31.23B | 19 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.57 | $1.67 | -5.7% | $33.68B | 25 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±10.8%; last 3 reports averaged ±9.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 53.8% | ±10.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 46.2% | ±13.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 42.2% | ±15.7% |
| 2027-02-19 | 113 | 46.6% | ±20.8% |
| 2027-05-21 | 204 | 48.6% | ±28.8% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.50 | $0.32 | Beat +56.3% | -17.9% |
| May 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.33 | $0.29 | Beat +13.8% | -7.6% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.31 | $0.24 | Beat +29.2% | -2.2% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000110465926117844/0001104659-26-117844-index.htm |
| 2026-10-15 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “On October 13, 2026, Joseph P. Baratta notified the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Medline Inc. (the "Company") of his decision to resign from the Board, effective as of December 31, 2026. Mr. Baratta's decision coincides with his previously announced departure from Blackstone Inc. and is not the result of any disagreement with the Company related to the Company's operations, policies, or practices. The Board is grateful for Mr. Baratta's service and contributions to the Company.” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000110465926116255/0001104659-26-116255-index.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | Schedule 13G/A | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P., HFCP X (Parallel - A), L.P.: 16.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000119312526345223/0001193125-26-345223-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | Schedule 13G/A | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P., BX Mozart ML-1 Holdco L.P.: 16.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000119312526340351/0001193125-26-340351-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | Schedule 13G | FMR LLC, Abigail P. Johnson: 5.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000031506626002081/0000315066-26-002081-index.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 27, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000204638626000051/0002046386-26-000051-index.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000204638626000049/0002046386-26-000049-index.htm |
| 2026-07-09 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “On July 7, 2026, Stephen L. Miller, Chief Operating Officer of Medline Inc. (the " Company "), notified the Company that he would retire from his role, effective August 30, 2026, for health-related reasons. The Company is launching a search for his successor.” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046386/000110465926082249/0001104659-26-082249-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.