# MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MFA · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA), nexqual.com/MFA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 6.62 (+2.32% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 6.47 · day 6.44–6.73 · 52w 6.38–10.43 · market cap $669M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 4.5x (avg 9.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.43 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 13.25 (range 8–31).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -14.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -27.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.3, revenue estimate $57.2M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $329M | -$232M | $80.2M | $119M | $177M | $148M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.63 | -$2.57 | $0.46 | $0.82 | $1.30 | — |
| Free cash flow | $126M | $355M | — | — | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $305M | $334M | $318M | $339M | $213M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 4.5x · P/B 0.4x · Earnings yield 22.15% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 22.63% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.63%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 5.5x, Dec 2024 9.0x, Dec 2023 14.6x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.43 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 13.25 (low 8, high 31).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $11 → $8 |
| 2026-10-07 | BTIG | Target lowered | Buy | $10.5 → $9.5 |
| 2026-08-20 | RBC Capital | Reiterated | Sector Perform | $10 |
| 2026-08-04 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $11.5 → $11 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -14.6% | -27.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -14.6% | -6.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 23.2% | 32.3% |
| Max drawdown | -32.8% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -54.7% (Jan 2022→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
ADAM (Adamas Trust, Inc.) USD 7.73 +3.90% · CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) USD 8.45 +2.55% · IVR (INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC) USD 5.52 +1.85% · ABR (Arbor Realty Trust) USD 2.96 +2.07% · ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate F) USD 6.3 -0.63% · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.) USD 6.25 +3.82%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MFA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Table 7 - Shock Table The information presented in the following "Shock Table" projects the potential impact of sudden parallel changes in interest rates on our portfolio, including the impact of Swaps and securitized debt and other fixed rate debt, based on the assets in our investment portfolio as of June 30, 2026."
- "All changes in value are measured as the percentage change from the projected portfolio value under the base interest rate scenario as of June 30, 2026."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.30 | $0.33 | -9.8% | $57.2M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.32 | $0.35 | -8.6% | $57.6M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.05 | $1.27 | -17.5% | $232.4M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.38 | $1.48 | -6.2% | $234.9M | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±11.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±2.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 43.3% | ±11.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 41.9% | ±19.3% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 31.1% | ±18.1% |