# MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MGPI · data as of 2026-10-23 16:05 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI), nexqual.com/MGPI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 15.82 (-2.65% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 16:05 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 16.25 · day 15.8–16.27 · 52w 12.42–26.77 · market cap $339M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $500M, net income -$242M (-48.4% margin), free cash flow $888K (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MGPI (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $2.1M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($2.1M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -33.6% vs S&P 500 +14.7%; 5Y -74.0% vs S&P 500 +77.5%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 0.32, revenue estimate $119M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $627M | $782M | $837M | $704M | $536M | $500M |
| Gross profit | $199M | $253M | $305M | $286M | $199M | — |
| Operating income | $126M | $149M | $149M | $74.4M | -$94.6M | -$270M |
| Net income | $91.3M | $109M | $107M | $34.7M | -$108M | -$242M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.37 | $4.92 | $4.80 | $1.56 | -$4.99 | — |
| Free cash flow | $40.9M | $43.6M | $28.5M | $31.1M | $76.0M | $888K |
| Gross margin | 31.7% | 32.4% | 36.4% | 40.7% | 37.2% | — |
| Operating margin | 20.2% | 19.0% | 17.8% | 10.6% | -17.6% | -53.9% |
| Net margin | 14.6% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 4.9% | -20.1% | -48.4% |
| Revenue growth | +58.5% | +24.8% | +6.9% | -15.9% | -23.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $21.6M | $47.9M | $18.4M | $25.3M | $18.5M | — |
| Total debt | $240M | $236M | $294M | $329M | $260M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.7x · EV/Sales 1.4x · P/FCF 381.5x · P/B 0.6x · FCF yield 0.26% · Earnings yield -71.44% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 3.06% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.26% · Net debt $352M · EV $691M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 25.0x, Dec 2023 20.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold MGPI. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 0.11% | $10.7M | Reduced -2.9% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Lux Leslie |  | 27,731 | $399K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-20 | Lux Paul S. |  | 33,000 | $586K | 5.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-26…2026-05-27 | Kaplan Caroline Lux |  | 60,000 | $1.1M | 11.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Roth Capital | Target lowered | Buy | $32 → $30 |
| 2026-10-05 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $22 → $17 |
| 2026-07-30 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $18 → $20 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $21 → $22 |
| 2026-07-08 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $24 → $21 |
| 2026-06-26 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Hold | $20 → $18 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -33.6% | -74.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.7% | +77.5% |
| Per year | -33.6% | -23.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 45.9% | 40.3% |
| Max drawdown | -50.8% (Feb 2026→Sep 2026) | -89.3% (Nov 2022→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries)
SNDL (SNDL Inc.) USD 1.3 +0.39% · AGCC (Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd) USD 14.81 -0.32% · BF-A (Brown Forman Inc) USD 30.36 -1.78% · DEO (Diageo plc) USD 95.7 -1.03%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MGPI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Spirits | $59.6M | 48.0% | -1.5% | $15.2M | 25.5% |
| Ingredient Solutions | $35.5M | 28.6% | +1.5% | $2.7M | 7.6% |
| Distilling Solutions | $29.2M | 23.5% | -41.6% | $10.6M | 36.2% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$10.8M | — |
| Total revenue | $124.4M | 100% | — | $17.7M | 14.2% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premium Plus | $32.6M | 26.3% | +5.0% |
| Specialty Wheat Starches | $18.9M | 15.2% | +2.2% |
| Mid Spirits | $16.2M | 13.0% | +4.7% |
| Brown Goods | $14.3M | 11.5% | -59.3% |
| Specialty Wheat Proteins | $12.7M | 10.3% | +1.1% |
| Warehouse Services | $8.6M | 6.9% | +7.8% |
| Value Spirits | $8.3M | 6.7% | -6.8% |
| White Goods & Co Products | $6.3M | 5.1% | -8.7% |
| Commodity Wheat Starch | $2.7M | 2.1% | -12.8% |
| Other Branded Spirits | $2.4M | 2.0% | -51.2% |
| Biofuel & Other | $1.1M | 0.9% | — |
| Commodity Wheat Protein | $76,000 | 0.1% | -90.8% |
| Total revenue | $124.4M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 16% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-25).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "Due to a recent revision to 2025 Kansas tax law, which resulted in the revaluation of deferred tax liabilities, the company now anticipates its full year 2026 effective tax rate will be approximately 23%."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.32 | $0.48 | -33.6% | $118.8M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.47 | $0.51 | -7.4% | $133.7M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.65 | $1.62 | +1.6% | $484.0M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.94 | $2.10 | -7.5% | $503.1M | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±15.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 67.9% | ±15.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 60.0% | ±18.9% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 51.0% | ±25.2% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 50.8% | ±31.1% |