# Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MGY · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY), nexqual.com/MGY" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 25.27 (-0.63% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 25.43 · day 24.88–25.79 · 52w 21.07–32.76 · market cap $6.94B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.48B, net income $426M (28.8% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 16.3x (avg 11.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.9x, net debt $97.7M.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $327K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.10 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 33.12 (range 27–39).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +9.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +34.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.59, revenue estimate $477M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.08B | $1.69B | $1.23B | $1.32B | $1.31B | $1.48B |
| Operating income | $603M | $1.07B | $534M | $512M | $439M | $563M |
| Net income | $417M | $894M | $388M | $366M | $325M | $426M |
| Operating margin | 55.9% | 63.4% | 43.6% | 38.9% | 33.5% | 38.0% |
| Net margin | 38.7% | 52.7% | 31.6% | 27.8% | 24.8% | 28.8% |
| Revenue growth | +99.2% | +57.1% | -27.6% | +7.2% | -0.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $367M | $675M | $401M | $260M | $267M | — |
| Total debt | $388M | $390M | $393M | $393M | $393M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 16.3x · P/S 4.7x · EV/EBITDA 6.9x · EV/Sales 4.8x · P/B 3.2x · Earnings yield 6.13% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.69% · Net debt $97.7M · EV $7.04B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 12.5x, Dec 2024 11.9x, Dec 2023 10.3x.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
4 purchases, $327K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Khani David M. | Director | 54 | $1K | 26.78 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-07 | Ropp Ralph Lewis | Director | 5,000 | $123K | 24.63 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-07 | Khani David M. | Director | 8,000 | $200K | 25 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Szabo Shandell | Director | 86 | $2K | 27.44 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.10 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 33.12 (low 27, high 39).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Scotiabank | Initiated | Sector Outperform | $31 |
| 2026-10-14 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $36 → $30 |
| 2026-10-02 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $34 → $35 |
| 2026-09-21 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $33 → $34 |
| 2026-09-08 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral → Overweight | $32 → $33 |
| 2026-09-03 | Seaport Global | Initiated | Neutral |  |
| 2026-08-17 | Johnson Rice | Upgrade | Hold → Accumulate | $33 → $32 |
| 2026-08-13 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $31 → $36 |
| 2026-08-11 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $29 → $27 |
| 2026-08-11 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $36 → $37 |
| 2026-07-28 | Truist Securities | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | $32 → $33 |
| 2026-07-24 | Roth Capital | Target lowered | Buy | $30 → $29 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +9.7% | +34.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +9.7% | +6.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 33.5% | 38.7% |
| Max drawdown | -27.3% (Mar 2026→Jul 2026) | -33.8% (Jun 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas E&P)
MTDR (Matador Resources Company) USD 56.79 -1.66% · VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.) USD 70.61 -1.16% · MUR (Murphy Oil Corporation) USD 42.37 -1.37% · CHRD (Chord Energy Corporation) USD 150.48 -0.25% · CNX (CNX Resources Corporation) USD 35.73 +1.62% · SM (SM Energy Company) USD 38.42 -0.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MGY · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil revenues | $373.8M | 78.1% | +65.1% |
| Natural gas liquids revenues | $65.4M | 13.7% | +31.3% |
| Natural gas revenues | $39.7M | 8.3% | -7.4% |
| Total revenue | $478.8M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 41%, 20% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-12).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-01)

- "Estimated production for the third quarter 2026 is expected to be 116 to 118 Mboe/d (~42% oil) after factoring in the closing of WildFire and the impact of divested non-core properties."
- "D&C capital spending is expected to be in the range of $155 to $165 million during the third quarter reflecting the same considerations."
- "Production for the fourth quarter of 2026 (the first full quarter pro forma for the acquisition) is expected to be 159 to 161 Mboe/d (49% to 50% oil), reflecting the divested volumes."
- "Additional Financial and Operational Considerations Magnolia has provided updated guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026 (the first full quarter pro forma for the acquisition) for several financial and operating metrics in the table below."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.59 | $0.58 | +2.3% | $477.0M | 17 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.85 | $0.92 | -6.8% | $745.0M | 17 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.00 | $3.00 | +0.1% | $2.06B | 17 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.15 | $3.56 | -11.5% | $2.77B | 18 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±9.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±2.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 42.2% | ±9.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 38.5% | ±12.1% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 35.9% | ±18.0% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 36.1% | ±22.8% |