# Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MLYS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS), nexqual.com/MLYS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 21.47 (+1.75% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 21.1 · day 20.7–21.6 · 52w 20.12–47.65 · market cap $1.90B · NMS

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 22 Form 4 filings, $13.6M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($3.0M); 16 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.18 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 46.33 (range 29–56).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -47.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +16.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-10, EPS estimate USD -0.54, revenue estimate $0K.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -$31.5M | -$84.7M | -$192M | -$171M | -$371M |
| Net income | -$29.8M | -$71.9M | -$178M | -$155M | -$350M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$5.77 | -$1.99 | -$3.66 | -$2.29 | — |
| Free cash flow | — | -$81.2M | -$166M | -$142M | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $87.7M | $237M | $198M | $657M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/B 3.5x · Earnings yield -18.42% · Net cash $661M · EV $1.24B

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
21 of 22 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Congleton Jon | Chief Executive Officer | 75,000 | $1.9M | 12.4% | Yes (adopted December 23, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-09-22 | Slingsby Brian Taylor | Director | 104,320 | $3.0M | 1.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-09-21 | Warren Eric | Chief Commercial Officer | 7,438 | $209K | 16.2% | Yes (adopted March 27, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-15 | Karydas Daphne | Director | 3,000 | $86K | 32.6% | Yes (adopted December 22, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-21 | Warren Eric | Chief Commercial Officer | 7,437 | $193K | 16.2% | Yes (adopted March 27, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-10 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 2,170 | $59K | 4.1% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-21 | Warren Eric | Chief Commercial Officer | 7,438 | $200K | 16.2% | Yes (adopted March 27, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-17 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 416 | $11K | 0.8% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-13…2026-07-15 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 20,407 | $557K | 28.4% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-13 | Congleton Jon | Chief Executive Officer | 10,700 | $291K | 1.7% | Yes (adopted January 28, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-09 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 2,171 | $66K | 3.6% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-30 | Congleton Jon | Chief Executive Officer | 75,000 | $2.0M | 10.9% | Yes (adopted December 30, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-26 | Warren Eric | Chief Commercial Officer | 104,124 | $2.7M | 73.1% | Yes (adopted March 27, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-15…2026-06-17 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 14,474 | $350K | 20.2% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-17 | Karydas Daphne | Director | 3,000 | $75K | 32.6% | Yes (adopted December 30, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-10…2026-06-12 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 8,519 | $206K | 11.8% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-18 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 417 | $11K | 0.7% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-11…2026-05-13 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 22,575 | $653K | 26.2% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-17 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 416 | $13K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-13…2026-04-15 | Rodman David Malcom | Chief Medical Officer | 20,406 | $549K | 22.6% | Yes (adopted October 6, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.18 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 46.33 (low 29, high 56).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | UBS | Initiated | Neutral | $29 |
| 2026-10-12 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterated | Buy | $56 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2023-02-06) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -47.4% | +16.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -47.5% | +4.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 59.6% | 73.5% |
| Max drawdown | -57.1% (Nov 2025→Oct 2026) | -67.2% (Feb 2023→Nov 2023) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 90.9 +2.57% · LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 307.82 -2.21% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.14 -3.28% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 258.92 +0.96% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 43.91 -0.81% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 90.23 -3.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MLYS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.54 | $-0.56 | -4.3% | $0 | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.59 | $-0.63 | -6.8% | $0 | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-4.43 | $-2.24 | +98.0% | $0 | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-2.46 | $-2.10 | +17.2% | $87.8M | 9 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-10): ±16.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±7.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 72.7% | ±16.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 75.5% | ±24.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 106.8% | ±40.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 87.1% | ±43.9% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 87.6% | ±47.5% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 83.0% | ±51.9% |
| 2027-07-16 | 266 | 76.6% | ±51.2% |
| 2027-10-15 | 357 | 74.6% | ±57.1% |