# Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MNR · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR), nexqual.com/MNR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 10.62 (+0.00% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 10.62 · day 10.54–10.72 · 52w 10.15–15.02 · market cap $1.77B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.35B, net income $101M (7.4% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 17.6x (avg 14.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.0x, net debt $1.13B.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $2.4M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.22 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 16.86 (range 14–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +0.9% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y -14.0% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.31, revenue estimate $347M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-05
- Dividend: USD 1.8 a year (yield 16.95%), paid quarterly; latest ex-dividend date 2026-08-17.
- Short interest: 2.69% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 0.6 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $392M | $937M | $762M | $970M | $1.18B | $1.35B |
| Operating income | $155M | $522M | $359M | $291M | $245M | $195M |
| Net income | $138M | $517M | $68.5M | $185M | $143M | $101M |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | $0.72 | $1.90 | $1.09 | — |
| Operating margin | 39.6% | 55.7% | 47.1% | 30.0% | 20.8% | 14.4% |
| Net margin | 35.3% | 55.1% | 9.0% | 19.1% | 12.2% | 7.4% |
| Revenue growth | — | +138.8% | -18.7% | +27.2% | +21.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $59.3M | $29.4M | $153M | $106M | $42.6M | — |
| Total debt | — | $84.9M | $807M | $751M | $1.14B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 17.6x · P/S 1.3x · EV/EBITDA 6.0x · EV/Sales 2.1x · Earnings yield 5.67% · Net debt $1.13B · EV $2.90B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.2x, Dec 2024 9.1x, Dec 2023 22.8x.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 purchases, $2.4M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | McMullen William Wallace | Director | 34,514 | $389K | 11.27 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-14 | Ward Tom L. | See Remarks | 172,413 | $2.0M | 11.6 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.22 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 16.86 (low 14, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Strong Buy | $19 → $16 |
| 2026-07-14 | Raymond James | Target raised | Strong Buy | $18 → $19 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2023-10-23) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +0.9% | -14.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +0.9% | -4.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 29.3% | 29.8% |
| Max drawdown | -26.2% (May 2026→Sep 2026) | -34.3% (Aug 2024→Jan 2026) |

## Dividends
Annual dividend rate USD 1.80 per share, yield 16.95% at the current price. Paid over the last 12 months: USD 1.80 in 4 payments (quarterly).
Most recent ex-dividend date: Aug 17, 2026; payment date: Aug 31, 2026. To receive a dividend, shares must be owned before the ex-dividend date.
Latest change: cut 43.8% to USD 0.36 per payment from USD 0.64, starting with the Aug 17, 2026 ex-dividend date.
Payout ratio 303% of earnings (above 100%: dividends exceeded net income; for REITs and partnerships, cash-flow measures are more relevant).
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | USD 0.36 |
| 2026-05-21 | USD 0.64 |
| 2026-02-26 | USD 0.53 |
| 2025-11-20 | USD 0.27 |
| 2025-08-21 | USD 0.38 |
| 2025-05-22 | USD 0.79 |
| 2025-02-27 | USD 0.50 |
| 2024-11-26 | USD 0.60 |
Total by calendar year: 2024 USD 3.20 · 2025 USD 1.94.

## Short interest
751,046 shares sold short, 2.69% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 579,786 shares (+29.5%). Days to cover: 0.6 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Oil & Gas E&P)
BSM (Black Stone Minerals, L.P.) USD 14.8 -0.40% · BTE (Baytex Energy Corp) USD 5.37 -1.65% · CRK (Comstock Resources, Inc.) USD 14.59 -1.88% · CRC (California Resources Corporatio) USD 54.67 -0.09% · CRGY (Crescent Energy Company) USD 13.75 +0.00% · CNX (CNX Resources Corporation) USD 36.79 -3.31%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MNR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales | $368.2M | 90.7% | +67.2% |
| — Oil (part of Gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales) | $197.0M | 48.5% | +77.4% |
| — Natural gas (part of Gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales) | $109.7M | 27.0% | +58.4% |
| — NGL (part of Gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales) | $61.6M | 15.2% | +54.1% |
| Net oil, natural gas, and NGL sales | $366.9M | 90.4% | +67.2% |
| Gain (loss) on oil and natural gas derivatives | $23.5M | 5.8% | -57.7% |
| Midstream revenue | $9.4M | 2.3% | +50.0% |
| Product sales | $6.2M | 1.5% | -14.2% |
| Total revenue | $406.0M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 190.7% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 21.8%, 14.4%, 12.8% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The Company also announced its quarterly cash distribution and updated its full-year 2026 outlook."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.31 | $0.29 | +6.0% | $347.2M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.42 | $0.38 | +11.5% | $373.8M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.31 | $1.23 | +6.8% | $1.44B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.34 | $1.41 | -4.9% | $1.42B | 6 |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.58 | $0.38 | Beat +52.6% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.21 | $0.47 | Miss −$0.68 | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.50 | $0.27 | Beat +85.2% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.28 | $0.32 | Miss −$0.60 | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Schedule 13G/A | IKAV General Partner S.a r.l., VEPU Inc.: 14.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980088/000110465926095973/0001104659-26-095973-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results; Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980088/000121390026086148/0001213900-26-086148-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980088/000162828026054263/0001628280-26-054263-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.