# The Mosaic Company (MOS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MOS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Mosaic Company (MOS), nexqual.com/MOS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 17.27 (-2.32% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 17.68 · day 16.99–17.54 · 52w 16.99–32.25 · market cap $5.49B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $12.2B, net income -$639M (-5.2% margin), free cash flow -$947M (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MOS (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 2 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $509K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($509K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.65 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 26.27 (range 17–35).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -39.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -53.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD -0.02, revenue estimate $3.07B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | $19.1B | $13.7B | $11.1B | $12.1B | $12.2B |
| Gross profit | $3.20B | $5.76B | $2.21B | $1.51B | $1.90B | — |
| Operating income | $2.47B | $4.79B | $1.34B | $622M | $822M | -$170M |
| Net income | $1.63B | $3.58B | $1.16B | $175M | $541M | -$639M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.27 | $10.06 | $3.50 | $0.55 | $1.70 | — |
| Free cash flow | $898M | $2.69B | $1.00B | $47.4M | -$535M | -$947M |
| Gross margin | 25.9% | 30.1% | 16.1% | 13.6% | 15.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 20.0% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | -1.4% |
| Net margin | 13.2% | 18.7% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 4.5% | -5.2% |
| Revenue growth | +42.3% | +54.8% | -28.4% | -18.8% | +8.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $770M | $735M | $349M | $273M | $277M | — |
| Total debt | $3.98B | $3.40B | $3.63B | $4.18B | $5.01B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 10.1x · EV/Sales 0.8x · P/B 0.5x · FCF yield -17.25% · Earnings yield -11.63% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 5.10% · Net debt $4.47B · EV $9.96B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 14.2x, Dec 2024 45.1x, Dec 2023 10.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold MOS. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 0.03% | $2.6M | Reduced -16.7% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | <0.01% | $339K | Reduced -20.0% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Precourt Walter F. Iii | SVP - Chief Admin Officer | 23,000 | $509K | 16.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.65 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 26.27 (low 17, high 35).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $26 → $22 |
| 2026-10-13 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $25 → $22 |
| 2026-10-05 | RBC Capital | Downgrade | Outperform → Sector Perform | $27 → $25 |
| 2026-09-11 | Keybanc | Initiated | Sector Weight |  |
| 2026-08-13 | Freedom Broker | Downgrade | Buy → Sell | $32 → $17 |
| 2026-06-30 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $28 → $26 |
| 2026-06-26 | Rothschild & Co | Initiated | Buy | $30 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -39.6% | -53.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -39.7% | -14.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 44.6% | 41.9% |
| Max drawdown | -43.9% (Mar 2026→Oct 2026) | -74.4% (Apr 2022→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Agricultural Inputs)
CTVA (Corteva, Inc.) USD 12.86 +1.10% · SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) USD 59.15 +5.76% · CF (CF Industries Holdings, Inc.) USD 118.56 +1.94% · NTR (Nutrien Ltd.) USD 69.09 +1.42% · FMC (FMC Corporation) USD 5.02 -0.20% · IPI (Intrepid Potash, Inc) USD 30.77 -1.38%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MOS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosaic Fertilizantes | $1.03B | 36.6% | -12.0% | -$40.8M | -3.9% |
| Phosphate | $968.7M | 34.3% | -1.6% | -$103.8M | -10.7% |
| Potash | $639.7M | 22.7% | -10.1% | $195.5M | 30.6% |
| Corporate, Eliminations and Other | $181.9M | 6.4% | +35.2% | -$86.4M | -47.5% |
| Total revenue | $2.82B | 100% | — | -$35.5M | -1.3% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate Crop Nutrients | $929.9M | 32.9% | +14.7% |
| Potash Crop Nutrients | $615.3M | 21.8% | -18.0% |
| Performance Products | $591.1M | 20.9% | -15.0% |
| Other Product Types | $373.6M | 13.2% | -0.4% |
| Crop Nutrient Blends | $284.0M | 10.1% | +5.9% |
| Phosphate Rock | $30.2M | 1.1% | -71.4% |
| Total revenue | $2.82B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Foreign | $1.99B | 70.6% | +6.0% |
| — Brazil (part of Total Foreign) | $992.2M | 35.1% | -13.9% |
| — Other Foreign (part of Total Foreign) | $569.2M | 20.2% | +73.2% |
| — Canada (part of Total Foreign) | $431.5M | 15.3% | +8.1% |
| United States | $831.2M | 29.4% | -26.1% |
| Canpotex | $305.0M | 10.8% | -4.2% |
| Total revenue | $2.82B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 110.8% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "Mosaic continues to expect total potash production of approximately 9 million tonnes in 2026, with volumes weighted toward the second half of the year, particularly with the contribution of additional volumes from the Hydrofloat project."
- "T hird quarter 2026 sales volumes are expected to be in the range of 2.0 to 2.2 million tonnes, with realized mine gate MOP prices in the range of $270 to $290 per tonne."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.02 | $0.28 | -105.5% | $3.07B | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.18 | $0.30 | -41.4% | $3.10B | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.34 | $0.78 | -56.2% | $12.14B | 16 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.53 | $1.82 | -16.3% | $12.80B | 16 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±9.9%; earnings reaction alone ±6.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 49.3% | ±5.9% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 60.7% | ±9.9% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 55.5% | ±10.9% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 53.3% | ±12.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 50.9% | ±12.8% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 51.3% | ±14.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 51.7% | ±16.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 49.5% | ±19.1% |