# MP Materials Corp. (MP)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MP · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, MP Materials Corp. (MP), nexqual.com/MP" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 38.56 (-2.38% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 39.5 · day 37.57–38.96 · 52w 37.57–76.8 · market cap $6.87B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $305M, net income -$60.6M (-19.9% margin), free cash flow -$505M (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MP (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $79.9M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($58.7M); 4 by opportunistic insiders (3 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.5M; 2 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.79 on a 1–5 scale) (19 analysts), mean target USD 70.76 (range 53–100).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -43.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +5.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.01, revenue estimate $119M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $332M | $528M | $253M | $204M | $224M | $305M |
| Operating income | $165M | $327M | -$17.7M | -$169M | -$149M | -$127M |
| Net income | $135M | $289M | $24.3M | -$65.4M | -$85.9M | -$60.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.73 | $1.52 | $0.14 | -$0.57 | -$0.50 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$21.9M | $16.9M | -$199M | -$173M | -$328M | -$505M |
| Operating margin | 49.8% | 62.1% | -7.0% | -83.1% | -66.6% | -41.5% |
| Net margin | 40.7% | 54.8% | 9.6% | -32.1% | -38.3% | -19.9% |
| Revenue growth | +147.2% | +58.9% | -52.0% | -19.6% | +10.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.18B | $1.18B | $998M | $851M | $1.83B | — |
| Total debt | $675M | $678M | $682M | $909M | $999M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 22.5x · EV/Sales 20.8x · P/B 3.5x · FCF yield -7.35% · Earnings yield -0.88% · Net cash $518M · EV $6.35B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2023 145.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold MP. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Cooperman | Omega Family Office | 4.74% | $168M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Litinsky James H. | Chairman and CEO | 185,167 | $12.8M | 1.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-27…2026-05-29 | Litinsky James H. | Chairman and CEO | 400,000 | $26.2M | 3.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-12…2026-05-13 | Litinsky James H. | Chairman and CEO | 300,000 | $19.6M | 2.4% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-08 | Hoops Elliot Dean | General Counsel and Secretary | 6,958 | $522K | 11.2% | Yes (adopted November 20, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-08 | Corbett Ryan | Chief Financial Officer | 20,000 | $1.5M | 15.5% | Yes (adopted December 16, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-17…2026-04-20 | Litinsky James H. | Chairman and CEO | 300,000 | $19.2M | 2.3% | Yes (adopted September 16, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 purchases, $1.5M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | Chief Operating Officer | 10,000 | $543K | 54.3 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-20 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | Chief Operating Officer | 17,000 | $963K | 56.62 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.79 on a 1–5 scale), 19 analysts; mean target USD 70.76 (low 53, high 100).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $73 → $66 |
| 2026-10-01 | Baird | Target lowered | Outperform | $80 → $65 |
| 2026-09-16 | Freedom Broker | Initiated | Hold | $57 |
| 2026-08-24 | DA Davidson | Maintained | Buy | $82 |
| 2026-07-29 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $75 → $60 |
| 2026-07-22 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $81 → $73 |
| 2026-07-16 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $69 → $65 |
| 2026-07-09 | Deutsche Bank | Target lowered | Buy | $70 → $61 |
| 2026-07-08 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $70 → $71.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -43.7% | +5.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -43.8% | +1.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 69.9% | 63.8% |
| Max drawdown | -47.6% (May 2026→Jul 2026) | -80.3% (Mar 2022→Aug 2024) |

## Peers (Other Industrial Metals & Mining)
MTRN (Materion Corporation) USD 219.12 -12.43% · RML (RESOLUTION MINERALS LTD) USD 4.35 -3.97% · SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) USD 28.74 -9.25% · USAR (USA Rare Earth, Inc.) USD 9.63 -5.87% · ALM (Almonty Industries Inc.) USD 8.75 -6.32% · SSMR (Sunshine Silver Mining & Refini) USD 13.17 -0.83%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MP · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Materials | $95.6M | 88.1% | +154.8% |
| Magnetics | $16.5M | 15.2% | — |
| Total revenue | $108.5M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 103.4% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nd Pr Oxide & Metal | $94.4M | 87.0% | +277.1% |
| Revenue Under Bill-and-Hold Arrangement | $51.3M | 47.3% | +157.8% |
| Magnetic Precursor Products | $16.5M | 15.2% | -16.8% |
| Other Revenue | $1.2M | 1.1% | +95.9% |
| Total revenue | $108.5M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 150.7% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 40%, 32%, 15% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-07).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.01 | $0.03 | -120.6% | $119.1M | 14 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.02 | $0.07 | -68.9% | $140.8M | 14 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.00 | $0.18 | -101.8% | $451.4M | 16 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.78 | $0.96 | -18.9% | $791.0M | 15 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±11.7%; earnings reaction alone ±6.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 59.7% | ±7.1% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 71.9% | ±11.7% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 68.4% | ±13.4% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 65.3% | ±14.8% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 61.2% | ±15.2% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 60.0% | ±16.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 59.6% | ±19.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 59.1% | ±22.7% |