# Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MPC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), nexqual.com/MPC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 459.28 (-1.86% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 467.98 · day 448.38–473.06 · 52w 161.93–493.98 · market cap $129B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $154B, net income $8.55B (5.6% margin), free cash flow $12.9B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.1x (avg 10.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MPC (13F, Q2 2026 (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early)): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 7 Form 4 filings, $11.8M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($5.6M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.37 on a 1–5 scale) (19 analysts), mean target USD 458.72 (range 236–560).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +138.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +660.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 25.37, revenue estimate $43.8B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $120B | $177B | $148B | $139B | $133B | $154B |
| Gross profit | $9.97B | $25.8B | $19.8B | $12.6B | $13.3B | — |
| Operating income | $4.30B | $21.5B | $14.5B | $6.80B | $8.29B | $14.1B |
| Net income | $9.74B | $14.5B | $9.68B | $3.44B | $4.05B | $8.55B |
| EPS (diluted) | $15.24 | $28.12 | $23.63 | $10.08 | $13.22 | — |
| Free cash flow | $2.90B | $13.9B | $12.2B | $6.13B | $4.77B | $12.9B |
| Gross margin | 8.3% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 10.0% | — |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.2% |
| Net margin | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.6% |
| Revenue growth | +71.9% | +47.9% | -16.4% | -6.4% | -4.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $10.8B | $11.8B | $10.2B | $3.21B | — | — |
| Total debt | $25.5B | $26.7B | $27.3B | $27.5B | $32.9B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 15.1x · P/S 0.8x · P/FCF 10.0x · P/B 6.8x · FCF yield 10.00% · Earnings yield 6.63% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.90% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.83%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 12.3x, Dec 2024 13.8x, Dec 2023 6.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold MPC (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early). Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Nygren | Oakmark Funds | 0.08% | $58.6M | Reduced -91.8% | Q2 2026 |
| David Katz | Matrix Asset Advisors | 0.03% | $338K | Unchanged | Q3 2026 |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | <0.01% | $355K | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 7 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28…2026-08-31 | Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | 1,425 | $532K | 9.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-27 | Brzezinski Erin M | VP and Controller | 570 | $207K | 26.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Benson Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | 17,196 | $6.2M | 36.1% | Yes (adopted May 15, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-13 | Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | 2,500 | $875K | 13.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-12 | Henschen Michael A Ii | Ex VP, Refining | 6,011 | $2.1M | 35.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-04 | Henschen Michael A Ii | Ex VP, Refining | 6,336 | $1.7M | 27.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-13 | Hessling Ricky D. | Chief Commercial Officer | 1,000 | $250K | 13.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.37 on a 1–5 scale), 19 analysts; mean target USD 458.72 (low 236, high 560).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $450 → $478 |
| 2026-10-14 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $400 → $560 |
| 2026-10-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $318 → $518 |
| 2026-10-12 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $321 → $488 |
| 2026-10-12 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $330 → $420 |
| 2026-10-08 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $304 → $457 |
| 2026-10-02 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Neutral | $410 → $426 |
| 2026-09-22 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $413 |
| 2026-09-21 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Buy | $376 → $472 |
| 2026-09-14 | Raymond James | Target raised | Outperform | $350 → $445 |
| 2026-09-14 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $265 → $453 |
| 2026-09-08 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $321 → $450 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +138.3% | +660.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +139.0% | +49.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 35.5% | 34.7% |
| Max drawdown | -18.3% (Nov 2025→Dec 2025) | -43.6% (Apr 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing)
VLO (Valero Energy Corporation) USD 426.28 -2.40% · PSX (Phillips 66) USD 284.63 -1.88% · DINO (HF Sinclair Corporation) USD 122.32 -2.59% · PBF (PBF Energy Inc.) USD 79.25 -2.81% · UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne) USD 7.8 -2.13% · CVI (CVR Energy Inc.) USD 58.63 -3.46%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MPC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in MPC's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Green Bison Soy Processing | "We formed the Green Bison Soy Processing, LLC ("Green Bison Soy Processing") joint venture with Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ("ADM") with ADM owning 75 percent of the joint venture and MPC owning 25 percent." |
| Partner | ENBRIDGE INC (ENB) | "(b) 2025 includes gains from the BANGL Acquisition, the Ethanol Joint Venture Sale and the Rockies divestiture. 2024 includes the gain resulting from MPLX and its joint venture partner contributing their respective membe…" |
| Partner | Martinez Renewables | "(b Includes Dickinson facility production and purchased product from our Martinez Renewables joint venture." |

Other companies that name MPC in their own reports (relationship from MPC's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Comstock Inc. (LODE) | 10-K 2026-03-24 | "As of February 28, 2025, the Company recognized the Marathon SAFE Note liability of $12.0 million on the condensed consolidated balance sheets in connection with the agreement with Virent and elected …" |
| supplier | SEMPRA (SRE) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "Our customer contracts for our refined products storage business are structured as long-term, U.S. dollar-denominated, firm capacity storage agreements with counterparties including Marathon Petroleum…" |
| partner | MPLX LP (MPLX) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "References to our sponsor and customer, "MPC," refer collectively to Marathon Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiaries, other than the Partnership." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refining & Marketing | $49.30B | 94.8% | +54.9% |
| Midstream | $1.46B | 2.8% | +8.6% |
| Renewable Diesel | $1.24B | 2.4% | +96.5% |
| Total revenue | $51.99B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refined Products | $46.43B | 89.3% | +55.1% |
| Crude Oil | $2.27B | 4.4% | +59.8% |
| Services & Other | $598.0M | 1.2% | +28.9% |
| Total revenue | $51.99B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 94.8% of total revenue.

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $25.37 | $16.08 | +57.8% | $43.81B | 18 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $21.04 | $8.58 | +145.3% | $42.34B | 18 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $65.07 | $40.22 | +61.8% | $172.36B | 17 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $58.44 | $29.19 | +100.2% | $154.45B | 19 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±12.3%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 54.7% | ±12.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 52.4% | ±16.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 50.8% | ±19.5% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 52.3% | ±26.3% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 51.7% | ±28.3% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 51.6% | ±32.7% |
| 2027-09-17 | 329 | 50.9% | ±37.8% |