# Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MRNA · data as of 2026-10-29 17:51 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), nexqual.com/MRNA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 217.9 (+1.74% today) · US market open, as of October 29, 2026 at 17:51 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 214.17 · day 215.38–224.96 · 52w 22.28–254.48 · market cap $87.0B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.23B, net income -$3.15B (-141.4% margin), free cash flow -$1.24B (SEC filings).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.96 on a 1–5 scale) (23 analysts), mean target USD 138.37 (range 45–251).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +782.2% vs S&P 500 +12.8%; 5Y -36.9% vs S&P 500 +78.7%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-06, EPS estimate USD -1.28, revenue estimate $891M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.5B | $19.3B | $6.85B | $3.24B | $1.94B | $2.23B |
| Gross profit | $15.9B | $13.8B | $2.15B | $1.77B | $1.08B | — |
| Operating income | $13.3B | $9.42B | -$4.24B | -$3.94B | -$3.07B | -$3.32B |
| Net income | $12.2B | $8.36B | -$4.71B | -$3.56B | -$2.82B | -$3.15B |
| EPS (diluted) | $28.29 | $20.12 | -$12.33 | -$9.28 | -$7.26 | — |
| Free cash flow | $13.3B | $4.58B | -$3.83B | -$4.05B | -$2.06B | -$1.24B |
| Gross margin | 85.8% | 71.9% | 31.5% | 54.8% | 55.3% | — |
| Operating margin | 72.0% | 48.9% | -61.9% | -121.9% | -158.1% | -149.0% |
| Net margin | 66.1% | 43.4% | -68.8% | -110.0% | -145.2% | -141.4% |
| Revenue growth | +2200.2% | +4.3% | -64.4% | -52.7% | -39.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $10.7B | $9.90B | $8.60B | $7.03B | $5.80B | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | $0K | $590M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 38.8x · EV/Sales 36.8x · P/B 12.8x · FCF yield -1.44% · Earnings yield -3.64% · Net cash $4.55B · EV $81.9B

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.96 on a 1–5 scale), 23 analysts; mean target USD 138.37 (low 45, high 251).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | William Blair | Downgrade | Outperform → Market Perform |  |
| 2026-10-26 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $167 → $230 |
| 2026-10-21 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $40 → $90 |
| 2026-10-15 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $120 → $137 |
| 2026-10-07 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $89 → $95 |
| 2026-09-30 | Citigroup | Downgrade | Neutral → Sell | $60 → $80 |
| 2026-09-03 | Rothschild & Co | Downgrade | Neutral → Sell | $40 → $81 |
| 2026-08-28 | Argus Research | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | $180 |
| 2026-08-25 | Wolfe Research | Upgrade | Underperform → Peer Perform |  |
| 2026-08-24 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $48 → $125 |
| 2026-08-21 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Underweight | $40 → $77 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $67 → $120 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +782.2% | -36.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +12.8% | +78.7% |
| Per year | +783.5% | -8.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 130.2% | 77.8% |
| Max drawdown | -34.2% (Jul 2026→Aug 2026) | -93.2% (Oct 2021→Sep 2025) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
REGN (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 813.5 +0.03% · VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 537.64 +1.50% · ARGX (argenx SE) USD 898.22 +0.72% · ONC (BeOne Medicines Ltd.) USD 370.32 -0.82% · RVMD (Revolution Medicines, Inc.) USD 188.6 -0.07% · RPRX (Royalty Pharma plc) USD 65.36 +0.83%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MRNA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in MRNA's own 10-K filed 2026-02-20 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/mrna-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Merck (MRK) | "We are advancing intismeran in collaboration with Merck, with eight Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials underway across multiple tumor types." |
| Partner | Immatics N.V. (IMTX) | "We have also expanded our oncology portfolio with early-stage programs, including mRNA-4106 (a cancer antigen therapy), mRNA-2808 (a T-cell engager), and mRNA-4203 (a cell-therapy enhancer). mRNA-4203 is being developed …" |
| Partner | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | "In July 2016, we entered into a Strategic Collaboration and License Agreement (Vertex Agreement) with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited (together, Vertex)." |
| Partner | ARES CAPITAL CORP (ARCC) | "A failure to comply with the covenants in our credit agreement with lenders led by Ares Capital Corporation, as administrative agent, could result in an event of default, which, if not cured or waived, could have a mater…" |
| Partner | OpenAI | "In early 2023, we began a collaboration with OpenAI to co-innovate with a shared vision of AI's transformative potential in the future of business and healthcare." |
| Competitor | Pfizer (PFE) | "We largely compete against Pfizer and BioNTech for sales of our COVID vaccines, whose vaccine is also based on mRNA technology." |

Other companies that name MRNA in their own reports (relationship from MRNA's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| competitor | GeoVax Labs, Inc. (GOVX) | 10-K 2026-04-15 | "We face general market competition from several subsectors of the vaccine development field, including large, multinational pharmaceutical companies including Sanofi, GSK, Merck, Mitsubishi Tanabe, Ta…" |
| partner | Autolus Therapeutics plc (AUTL) | 10-K 2026-03-27 | "We have collaboration and license agreements with, for example, BioNTech SE, Cabaletta Bio Inc., Moderna Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, and others." |
| competitor | BioCardia, Inc. (BCDA) | 10-K 2026-03-24 | "The industry continues to expand and evolve as an increasing number of competitors and potential competitors enter the market, including AstraZeneca, Bayer, Blue Rock Therapeutics, Bristol-Myers Squib…" |
| partner | Silexion Therapeutics Corp (SLXN) | 10-K 2026-03-17 | "Other companies with selective KRAS inhibitors include AstraZeneca (in collaboration with Usynova), BioNTech, Roche, Merck/Moderna, Boehringer and Gilead." |
| partner | CytomX Therapeutics, Inc. (CTMX) | 10-K 2026-03-16 | "We currently have several strategic alliances with major multinational drug companies, including Amgen, Inc. ("Amgen"), Bristol Myers Squibb, Astellas Pharma Inc. ("Astellas"), Regeneron Pharmaceutica…" |
| competitor | Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) | 10-K 2026-03-16 | "Competitor companies developing Biologic approaches to enhancing Tregs, leveraging IL-2 formulations, include: Amgen (AMGN) (IL-2 mutein for GVHD and autoimmune diseases), Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) (…" |
| competitor | ORAGENICS INC (OGEN) | 10-K 2026-03-16 | "AstraZeneca, and Moderna, among others, compete in the same or similar markets." |
| competitor | BioNTech SE (BNTX) | 20-F 2026-03-10 | "developed by Moderna, Inc. and Novavax, Inc. Our competitors pursuing vaccine candidates may have greater" |
| partner | Immatics N.V. (IMTX) | 20-F 2026-03-05 | "In parallel to our proprietary development, we are collaborating with Moderna to evaluate the combination of anzu-cel (IMA203) with Moderna's PRAME cell therapy enhancer, mRNA-4203, in an ongoing Phas…" |
| partner | Metagenomi Therapeutics, Inc. (MGX) | 10-K 2026-03-05 | "On April 26, 2024 (the "Termination Date"), we and ModernaTx, Inc. ("Moderna") mutually terminated the Strategic Collaboration and License Agreement, dated October 29, 2021 (the "Moderna Agreement"), …" |
| competitor | Invivyd, Inc. (IVVD) | 10-K 2026-03-05 | "Alternative COVID-19 prevention competition exists from mRNA vaccine manufacturers Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, as well as protein subunit vaccine from Novavax (authorized for people 12 years and olde…" |
| partner | Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) | 10-K 2026-03-04 | "Companies such as Pfizer Inc./BioNTech SE, Moderna, Inc., CureVac N.V in partnership with GSK plc, Vivaldi Biosciences Inc., and Novavax, Inc. are also in the process of developing a combination vacci…" |
| competitor | Prime Medicine, Inc. (PRME) | 10-K 2026-03-03 | "Other companies have announced intentions to enter the gene editing field, such as Moderna, Inc. and Pfizer Inc. Most recently, new epigenetic editing companies have emerged, such as Moonwalk Bioscien…" |
| partner | Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) | 10-K 2026-03-03 | "Our molecular profiling solutions and the data generated by our multi-omic technology platform provide value to our biopharma partners, such as Moderna, AbbVie, Xencor, Merck KGaA and Genentech, throu…" |
| competitor | Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) | 10-K 2026-03-03 | "We are aware of product candidates of the following companies that we consider as competitors or future competitors to ARCT-032: Moderna/Vertex, Recode Therapeutics, Eloxx Pharmaceuticals, 4DMT, Spiro…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net product sales | $94.0M | 64.8% | -17.5% |
| — COVID (part of Net product sales) | $91.0M | 62.8% | -20.2% |
| — RSV (part of Net product sales) | $3.0M | 2.1% | — |
| Other revenue | $51.0M | 35.2% | +82.1% |
| — Stand-ready manufacturing revenue (part of Other revenue) | $31.0M | 21.4% | +82.4% |
| — Collaboration Arrangement, Including Arrangements With Affiliate (part of Other revenue) | $15.0M | 10.3% | +275.0% |
| — Licensing and royalty revenue (part of Other revenue) | $3.0M | 2.1% | +50.0% |
| — Grant revenue (part of Other revenue) | $2.0M | 1.4% | -60.0% |
| Total revenue | $145.0M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.20B | 61.7% | -32.8% |
| Rest Of World | $692.0M | 35.6% | -18.9% |
| Europe | $53.0M | 2.7% | -91.1% |
| Total revenue | $1.94B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 15%, 13%, 11% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-20).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-31)

- "The Company subsequently paid $950 million in July 2026 related to the litigation settlement announced in the first quarter of 2026. 2026 Financial Framework Revenue: The Company is targeting up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue and expects 2026 revenue split to be approximately 50% U.S. and approximately 50% international."
- "Moderna expects approximately 55% of its second half 2026 revenue to be recognized in the third quarter."
- "Cost of Sales: Cost of sales for 2026 is expected to be approximately $1.7 billion, lowered from approximately $1.8 billion, and including the $0.9 billion non-recurring litigation settlement charge."
- "Research and Development Expenses: Research and development expenses for 2026 are now anticipated to be approximately $2.9 billion, lowered from approximately $3.0 billion."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-1.28 | $-1.22 | −$0.06 | $891.3M | 15 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.86 | $-2.06 | +$0.20 | $675.4M | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-8.50 | $-8.67 | +$0.17 | $2.10B | 21 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-4.90 | $-4.75 | −$0.14 | $2.44B | 19 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-06): ±11.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±7.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 1 | 93.7% | ±4.1% |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 | 96.7% | ±11.5% |
| 2026-11-13 | 15 | 94.8% | ±15.4% |
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 87.6% | ±17.2% |
| 2026-11-27 | 29 | 84.0% | ±19.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 36 | 82.9% | ±20.8% |
| 2026-12-11 | 43 | 81.4% | ±22.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 81.6% | ±24.1% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$1.97 | −$2.06 | Beat +4.4% | -4.8% |
| May 1, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$3.40 | −$3.88 | Beat +12.4% | +3.0% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$2.11 | −$2.60 | Beat +18.8% | +9.5% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$2.11 | −$2.60 | Beat +18.8% | +15.5% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.51 | −$2.18 | Beat +76.6% | +4.2% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -6.5% |
| May 1, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -3.3% |
| Feb 14, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +12.0% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure — “(b) and (c) On September 30, 2026, Moderna, Inc. ("Moderna" or the "Company") announced the appointment of Juan Andres as its Chief Operating Officer ("COO") effective October 5, 2026. In this newly created role, Mr. Andres will support the increasing scale and diversification of the Company and will report to Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel and serve on the Company's Executive Committee. Mr. Andres, 62, previously spent nearly six years at Moderna, including serving as its Chief Technical Operations and…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000119312526408289/0001193125-26-408289-index.htm |
| 2026-09-01 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; New debt or off-balance-sheet obligation; Unregistered sale of shares; Other material event — “Indenture and Notes On September 1, 2026, Moderna, Inc. (the "Company") completed its previously announced private offering (the "Offering") of $3,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 (the "Notes"), including the exercise in full of the initial purchasers' option to purchase up to an additional $400,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Notes. The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated September 1, 2026 (the "Indenture"), between the Company and U.S. Bank…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000119312526378505/0001193125-26-378505-index.htm |
| 2026-08-12 | Schedule 13G | Capital World Investors: 5.6% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000142284926000128/0001422849-26-000128-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | Schedule 13G/A | FMR LLC, Abigail P. Johnson: 13.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000031506626002071/0000315066-26-002071-index.htm |
| 2026-07-31 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000150/0001682852-26-000150-index.htm |
| 2026-07-31 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000147/0001682852-26-000147-index.htm |
| 2026-07-24 | Schedule 13G/A | BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO: 4.6% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000108887526000046/0001088875-26-000046-index.htm |
| 2026-07-08 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure — “(d) On July 6, 2026 , the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Moderna, Inc. (the "Company"), upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board (the "Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee"), appointed Michael McDonnell to the Board, effective July 8, 2026. Mr. McDonnell has more than 35 years of financial leadership and public company experience, most recently serving as Chief Financial Officer of Biogen Inc. from August 2020 through February 2025. He previously…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000134/0001682852-26-000134-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.