# Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MTH · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH), nexqual.com/MTH" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 63.63 (+7.27% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 59.32 · day 59.51–63.71 · 52w 56.66–85.38 · market cap $4.15B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 12.6x (avg 8.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MTH (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $79K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($79K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 1 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.44 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 74 (range 59–90).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -8.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +31.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 1.14, revenue estimate $1.29B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $737M | $992M | $739M | $786M | $453M | $329M |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.64 | $13.37 | $9.96 | $10.72 | $6.35 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$178M | $378M | $317M | -$256M | $92.6M | $415M |
| Cash + short-term investments | $618M | $862M | $921M | $652M | $775M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 12.6x · P/FCF 10.0x · P/B 0.8x · FCF yield 10.00% · Earnings yield 7.94% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.96% · Buyback yield (TTM) 10.49%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.4x, Dec 2024 7.2x, Dec 2023 8.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold MTH. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenhaven Associates |  | 1.26% | $109M | Reduced -10.8% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Sasser Alison | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | 1,273 | $79K | 14.3% | No | Routine (sold in Feb each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.44 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 74 (low 59, high 90).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Buy | $93 → $82 |
| 2026-10-06 | Melius Research | Initiated | Sell | $59 |
| 2026-09-25 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | In-Line | $73 → $65 |
| 2026-09-16 | Truist Securities | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $80 → $72 |
| 2026-07-31 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $86 → $88 |
| 2026-07-10 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Buy | $82 → $93 |
| 2026-07-07 | Zelman & Assoc | Downgrade | Outperform → Neutral |  |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -8.7% | +31.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -8.7% | +5.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 38.8% | 38.9% |
| Max drawdown | -31.6% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -46.1% (Dec 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Residential Construction)
CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) USD 547.44 +6.04% · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) USD 79.72 +5.27% · IBP (Installed Building Products, In) USD 198.13 +5.46% · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) USD 123.3 +8.12% · KBH (KB Home) USD 46.19 +7.39% · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.) USD 64.94 +7.02%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MTH · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in MTH's own 10-K filed 2026-02-13 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833079/000083307926000010/mth-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Homes | "Our marketing strategy is aimed at differentiating Meritage Homes by focusing on real estate agents as our primary customer, supported by our Agents Rock Rewards program, which provides opportunities for real estate agen…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | $1.40B | — | -13.8% |
| Home Building | $1.39B | — | -14.1% |
| Land | $12.7M | — | +53.7% |
| Financial Service | $7.8M | — | -17.4% |
| Total revenue | — | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "And while we moderated land spend to $357 million from $509 million in the second quarter of 2025, we are reiterating our prior community count growth expectation of 5-10% year-over-year for full year 2026," concluded Mr."
- "Such statements include expectations about the housing market in general and our future results including our full year 2026 projected home closing volume, home closing revenue and community count growth."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.14 | $1.40 | -18.8% | $1.29B | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.40 | $1.51 | -7.1% | $1.50B | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.80 | $5.01 | -4.0% | $5.33B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $5.50 | $6.48 | -15.2% | $5.65B | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±9.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±2.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 43.6% | ±9.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 41.1% | ±13.0% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 39.6% | ±19.8% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 39.9% | ±24.9% |