# MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/MTSI · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI), nexqual.com/MTSI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 229.73 (-15.87% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 273.05 · day 227.27–259.4 · 52w 136–418.9 · market cap $17.5B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 3, 2026): revenue $1.16B, net income $241M (20.7% margin), free cash flow $204M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 72.8x (avg 85.1x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 65.5x, net cash $323M.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $75.4M vs operating income $211M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈98.9x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 15.8% effective rate).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold MTSI (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 11 Form 4 filings, $31.4M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($17.3M); 3 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 6 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 390.33 (range 300–475).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +64.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +245.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 2, revenue estimate $420M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $607M | $675M | $648M | $730M | $967M | $1.16B |
| Gross profit | $342M | $406M | $386M | $394M | $529M | — |
| Operating income | $81.0M | $133M | $107M | $73.7M | $130M | $211M |
| Net income | $38.0M | $440M | $91.6M | $76.9M | -$54.2M | $241M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.54 | $6.18 | $1.28 | $1.04 | -$0.73 | — |
| Free cash flow | $130M | $150M | $142M | $140M | $193M | $204M |
| Gross margin | 56.3% | 60.2% | 59.5% | 54.0% | 54.7% | — |
| Operating margin | 13.3% | 19.7% | 16.6% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 18.1% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 65.2% | 14.1% | 10.5% | -5.6% | 20.7% |
| Revenue growth | +14.5% | +11.2% | -4.0% | +12.5% | +32.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $345M | $587M | $515M | $582M | $786M | — |
| Total debt | $492M | $566M | $447M | $448M | $501M | — |
Fiscal years end Oct. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 3, 2026)
P/E 72.8x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈98.9x · P/S 15.1x · EV/EBITDA 65.5x · EV/Sales 14.8x · P/FCF 86.0x · P/B 11.4x · FCF yield 1.16% · Earnings yield 1.37% · Net cash $323M · EV $17.2B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Sep 2024 106.5x, Sep 2023 63.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold MTSI. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $779K | Added +92.7% |
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | 0.01% | $682K | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
8 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Roth Ambra R. | SVP, GC and Secretary | 653 | $196K | 6.6% | Yes (adopted May 21, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-28 | Dennehy Robert | Senior VP and COO | 252 | $69K | 1.9% | Yes (adopted May 29, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-17 | Kober John | Senior VP and CFO | 7,389 | $2.4M | 18% | Yes (adopted August 14, 2025) | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-25 | Hwang Donghyun Thomas | SVP, Global Sales | 2,620 | $1.0M | 8.1% | Yes (adopted August 11, 2025) | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-29 | Daly Stephen G | President and CEO | 15,828 | $5.8M | 29.2% | Yes (adopted February 27, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-18 | Kober John | Senior VP and CFO | 7,644 | $2.7M | 15.7% | Yes (adopted August 14, 2025) | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-18 | Hwang Donghyun Thomas | SVP, Global Sales | 2,595 | $936K | 7.4% | Yes (adopted August 11, 2025) | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-14 | Chung Peter Y | Director | 43,268 | $16.4M | 86.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-13 | Bland Charles R | Director | 800 | $304K | 5.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-11 | Ribar Geoffrey G | Director | 1,623 | $587K | 11.4% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-30 | Hwang Donghyun Thomas | SVP, Global Sales | 3,718 | $1.0M | 9.6% | Yes (adopted August 11, 2025) | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 390.33 (low 300, high 475).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | BMO Capital | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $335 |
| 2026-08-21 | BMO Capital | Initiated | Market Perform | $335 |
| 2026-08-07 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $427 → $475 |
| 2026-08-06 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $400 → $410 |
| 2026-07-21 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Neutral | $350 → $300 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +64.9% | +245.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +65.2% | +28.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 65.6% | 45.7% |
| Max drawdown | -44.2% (May 2026→Jul 2026) | -43.5% (Dec 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Semiconductors)
SWKS (Skyworks Solutions, Inc.) USD 82.39 +0.21% · TSEM (Tower Semiconductor Ltd.) USD 167.71 -11.52% · SITM (SiTime Corporation) USD 462.72 -9.13% · LSCC (Lattice Semiconductor Corporati) USD 96.4 -10.57% · GFS (GlobalFoundries Inc.) USD 43.37 -9.08% · CBRS (Cerebras Systems Inc.) USD 108.94 -7.66%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/MTSI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in MTSI's own 10-K filed 2025-11-14 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359425000054/mtsi-20251003.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Related party | Linearizer Technology | "On March 3, 2023, in conjunction with the Linearizer Acquisition, we entered into a seven-year lease agreement with an entity that is majority-owned by certain former Linearizer employees, which was deemed to be a relate…" |
| Competitor | Analog Devices (ADI) | "We primarily compete with Analog Devices, Inc. ("ADI"), Broadcom Inc. ("Broadcom"), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. ("Credo"), Marvell Technology Inc. ("Marvell"), MaxLinear Inc. ("MaxLinear"), Microchip Technology I…" |
| Competitor | Broadcom (AVGO) | "We primarily compete with Analog Devices, Inc. ("ADI"), Broadcom Inc. ("Broadcom"), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. ("Credo"), Marvell Technology Inc. ("Marvell"), MaxLinear Inc. ("MaxLinear"), Microchip Technology I…" |
| Competitor | Credo Technology (CRDO) | "We primarily compete with Analog Devices, Inc. ("ADI"), Broadcom Inc. ("Broadcom"), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. ("Credo"), Marvell Technology Inc. ("Marvell"), MaxLinear Inc. ("MaxLinear"), Microchip Technology I…" |
| Competitor | Marvell Technology (MRVL) | "We primarily compete with Analog Devices, Inc. ("ADI"), Broadcom Inc. ("Broadcom"), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. ("Credo"), Marvell Technology Inc. ("Marvell"), MaxLinear Inc. ("MaxLinear"), Microchip Technology I…" |
| Competitor | Microchip Technology (MCHP) | "We primarily compete with Analog Devices, Inc. ("ADI"), Broadcom Inc. ("Broadcom"), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. ("Credo"), Marvell Technology Inc. ("Marvell"), MaxLinear Inc. ("MaxLinear"), Microchip Technology I…" |
| Competitor | NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) | "We primarily compete with Analog Devices, Inc. ("ADI"), Broadcom Inc. ("Broadcom"), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. ("Credo"), Marvell Technology Inc. ("Marvell"), MaxLinear Inc. ("MaxLinear"), Microchip Technology I…" |
| Competitor | Qorvo (QRVO) | "We primarily compete with Analog Devices, Inc. ("ADI"), Broadcom Inc. ("Broadcom"), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. ("Credo"), Marvell Technology Inc. ("Marvell"), MaxLinear Inc. ("MaxLinear"), Microchip Technology I…" |
| Competitor | Skyworks (SWKS) | "We primarily compete with Analog Devices, Inc. ("ADI"), Broadcom Inc. ("Broadcom"), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. ("Credo"), Marvell Technology Inc. ("Marvell"), MaxLinear Inc. ("MaxLinear"), Microchip Technology I…" |

Other companies that name MTSI in their own reports (relationship from MTSI's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | WOLFSPEED, INC. (WOLF) | 10-K 2026-08-20 | "In connection with the divestiture of the RF Business (the "RF Business Divestiture"), MACOM assumed operational control of the Company's 100mm GaN wafer fabrication facility in Research Triangle Park…" |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-07-03)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | $133.8M | 39.1% | +88.5% |
| United States | $121.2M | 35.4% | +15.1% |
| Other Countries | $47.1M | 13.8% | +1.7% |
| Asia Pacific, excluding China | $40.2M | 11.8% | +36.2% |
| Total revenue | $342.2M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-07-03: 23%, 13% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "For the fiscal fourth quarter ending October 2, 2026, MACOM expects revenue to be in the range of $415 million to $425 million."
- "Adjusted gross margin is expected to be between 60.0% and 61.0%, and adjusted earnings per diluted share is expected to be between $1.97 and $2.03 utilizing an anticipated non-GAAP income tax rate of 3% and 78.9 million fully diluted shares outstanding."
- "Eastern Time to discuss its fiscal third quarter 2026 financial results and business outlook."

Analysts expect $420.4M for the current quarter, +0.1% vs the guidance midpoint $420.0M. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359426000036/ex99_1earningsreleaseq3fy26.htm

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $2.00 | $1.57 | +27.6% | $420.4M | 16 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.03 | $1.64 | +23.8% | $430.6M | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-09-30) | $5.51 | $5.03 | +9.6% | $1.32B | 16 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-09-30) | $8.50 | $6.93 | +22.6% | $1.80B | 16 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±18.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±11.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 82.0% | ±18.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 73.7% | ±23.5% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 68.9% | ±31.7% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 66.6% | ±40.3% |