# Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/NFLX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), nexqual.com/NFLX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 67.05 (+3.09% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 65.04 · day 65.02–67.49 · 52w 64.1–116.73 · market cap $279B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $49.7B, net income $14.8B (29.7% margin), free cash flow $11.4B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 18.9x (avg 40.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 17.9x, net debt $6.91B.
- 11 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold NFLX (13F, Q2 2026): 4 new, 2 added, 2 reduced, 3 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.25 on a 1–5 scale) (51 analysts), mean target USD 84.83 (range 57–126).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -39.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +0.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2027-01-19, EPS estimate USD 0.68, revenue estimate $13.4B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.7B | $31.6B | $33.7B | $39.0B | $45.2B | $49.7B |
| Gross profit | $12.4B | $12.4B | $14.0B | $18.0B | $21.9B | — |
| Operating income | $6.19B | $5.63B | $6.95B | $10.4B | $13.3B | $15.6B |
| Net income | $5.12B | $4.49B | $5.41B | $8.71B | $11.0B | $14.8B |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.12 | $0.99 | $1.20 | $1.98 | $2.53 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$132M | $1.62B | $6.93B | $6.92B | $9.46B | $11.4B |
| Gross margin | 41.6% | 39.4% | 41.5% | 46.1% | 48.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 20.9% | 17.8% | 20.6% | 26.7% | 29.5% | 31.3% |
| Net margin | 17.2% | 14.2% | 16.0% | 22.3% | 24.3% | 29.7% |
| Revenue growth | +18.8% | +6.5% | +6.7% | +15.6% | +15.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $6.06B | $6.08B | $7.14B | $9.58B | $9.06B | — |
| Total debt | $15.4B | $14.4B | $14.5B | $15.6B | $14.5B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 18.9x · P/S 5.6x · EV/EBITDA 17.9x · EV/Sales 5.8x · P/FCF 24.5x · P/B 9.5x · FCF yield 4.07% · Earnings yield 5.29% · Buyback yield (TTM) 4.61% · Net debt $6.91B · EV $286B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 37.1x, Dec 2024 44.9x, Dec 2023 40.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
11 of 80 tracked investors hold NFLX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Tarasoff | Greenlea Lane Capital | 5.41% | $19.7M | Reduced -1.3% |
| Bill Ackman | Pershing Square | 4.80% | $934M | New position |
| Thomas Russo | Gardner Russo & Quinn | 4.57% | $408M | Added +1.8% |
| Terry Smith | Fundsmith | 3.66% | $499M | New position |
| Bill Nygren | Oakmark Funds | 1.05% | $786M | Added +11.7% |
| Wallace Weitz | Weitz Investment Management | 0.73% | $10.5M | New position |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.04% | $4.9M | Reduced -18.2% |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.02% | $2.9M | New position |
| Christopher Bloomstran | Semper Augustus | 0.02% | $213K | Unchanged |
| Ruane Cunniff | Ruane Cunniff LP | 0.01% | $578K | Unchanged |
| First Pacific Advisors |  | 0.01% | $1.2M | Unchanged |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.25 on a 1–5 scale), 51 analysts; mean target USD 84.83 (low 57, high 126).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Wolfe Research | Downgrade | Outperform → Peer Perform |  |
| 2026-10-22 | Argus Research | Target lowered | Buy | $120 → $95 |
| 2026-10-22 | Pivotal Research | Target lowered | Hold | $70 → $65 |
| 2026-10-21 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $115 → $100 |
| 2026-10-21 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $100 → $85 |
| 2026-10-21 | Oppenheimer | Target lowered | Outperform | $85 → $80 |
| 2026-10-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $80 → $77 |
| 2026-10-21 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $85 → $81 |
| 2026-10-21 | TD Cowen | Reiterated | Buy | $100 |
| 2026-10-21 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $85 → $78 |
| 2026-10-21 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $110 → $90 |
| 2026-10-21 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $70 → $65 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -39.8% | +0.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -39.9% | +0.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 35.8% | 44.5% |
| Max drawdown | -43.8% (Nov 2025→Oct 2026) | -74.6% (Oct 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Entertainment)
DIS (Walt Disney Company (The)) USD 113.13 +1.16% · LYV (Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.) USD 174.5 +0.09% · SKYD (Skydance Corporation) USD 7.79 -1.02% · TKO (TKO Group Holdings, Inc.) USD 177.72 -0.12% · FOXA (Fox Corporation) USD 68.27 +3.69% · ROKU (Roku, Inc.) USD 160.06 +1.45%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/NFLX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in NFLX's own 10-K filed 2026-01-23 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000034/nflx-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "While the retail side of Amazon competes with us, we do not believe that Amazon will use the AWS operation in a manner to gain competitive advantage against our service, although if it were to do so it could harm our bus…" |

Other companies that name NFLX in their own reports (relationship from NFLX's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| competitor | Fox Corp (FOX) | 10-K 2026-08-06 | "On a national level, the primary competitors to FS1, FS2, and the Big Ten Network are national cable networks ESPN, ESPN2, TNT, TBS, USA Network, CBS Sports Network and The CW Network; league-owned ne…" |
| supplier | Cineverse Corp. (CNVS) | 10-K 2026-06-26 | "More than 15 years of experience as a primary distributor of content to scale third-party OTT platforms such as Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, Tubi, Apple iTunes and more, and nearly seven years of hist…" |
| partner | Nexus Advanced Technologies Inc. (NXAT) | 20-F 2026-05-15 | "The KWM production entities operate in an environment characterized by expanding multi-platform demand: beyond Netflix, HBO Max launched a multi-year content partnership with CJ ENM's TVING service ac…" |
| competitor | GRUPO TELEVISA, S.A.B. (TV) | 20-F 2026-04-30 | "Our pay-TV companies face competition from IPTV, AVOD or over-the-top ("OTT") providers such as Netflix, Disney+, Claro Video, Prime Video (Amazon), HBO Max, Apple TV+ and YouTube among others, as wel…" |
| competitor | Anghami Inc (ANGH) | 20-F 2026-04-30 | "Internationally, Netflix remains the primary competitor with respect to premium international content." |
| competitor | SK TELECOM CO LTD (SKM) | 20-F 2026-04-29 | "Furthermore, our IPTV and cable TV services are facing an increasing level of competition from global operators of online video streaming platforms, such as YouTube, Netflix, Disney Plus and Apple TV,…" |
| partner | PLDT Inc. (PHI) | 20-F 2026-04-27 | "Entertainment expanded through IPTV and OTT add-ons, giving access to blockbuster films, award-winning series, premium HD/4K streaming quality, and faster access to titles following theatrical release…" |
| competitor | READING INTERNATIONAL INC (RDIB) | 10-K 2026-03-31 | "The continued dominance of streaming subscription services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney/Hulu, and Apple continues to create competition for the traditional theatrical experience offered…" |
| partner | Kartoon Studios, Inc. (TOON) | 10-K 2026-03-31 | "Studios has developed and produced original programming in partnership with Cartoon Network, Nickelodeon, Nick Jr., Netflix, Sony Pictures" |
| partner | TIM S.A. (TIMB) | 20-F 2026-03-30 | "premium partnership benefits with the major entertainment brands in streaming: Amazon, Paramount, Netflix, Disney, etc." |
| competitor | URBAN ONE, INC. (UONE) | 10-K 2026-03-20 | "Our Digital and Cable Television segments compete for the time and attention of internet users and viewers and, thus, advertisers and advertising revenues with a wide range of internet companies such …" |
| competitor | PLAYSTUDIOS, Inc. (MYPS) | 10-K 2026-03-16 | "In addition, online game developers and distributors that are primarily focused on specific international markets, such as Giant Interactive and Tencent in Asia, and high-profile companies with signif…" |
| competitor | Townsquare Media, Inc. (TSQ) | 10-K 2026-03-16 | "•iPhone/iPad and similar mobile devices, gaming consoles, in-home entertainment and enhanced automotive platforms, voice activated smart speakers, and streaming internet services such as Netflix, Spot…" |
| supplier | Onconetix, Inc. (ONCO) | 10-K 2026-03-13 | "she has worked with companies whose clients and customers include Fortune 500 companies such as Netflix, Disney, Amazon, Apple, Activision," |
| competitor | CuriosityStream Inc. (CURI) | 10-K 2026-03-12 | "We compete for the time and attention of our users across different forms of media, including traditional broadcast, cable, satellite and internet-delivered video, other providers of SVOD services (e.…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-20)

- "EX-99.1 2 ex991_q326.htm EX-99.1 Document Exhibit 99.1 October 20, 2026 Fellow shareholders, • We delivered our Q3 forecast and expect to deliver on our full year 2026 guidance. ◦ Q3 revenue grew 12% year over year (11% on a F/X neutral basis 1 ) to $12.9B, consistent with our forecast."
- "Operating margin was 34.6%, up from 28.2% in Q3'25 and ahead of our forecast primarily due to the timing of expenses. ◦ For 2026, we expect revenue of $51.1B (+13% year over year) and an operating margin of 31.5%. • The core of our service is delivering differentiated, exclusive, professionally produced series, films and live events."
- "Our summary results, and forecast for Q4, are below."
- "Assumes foreign exchange rates remained constant with foreign exchange rates from each of the corresponding months of the prior-year period. 1 Q3 Results and Forecast Revenue in Q3 grew 12% year over year (+11% on a foreign exchange (F/X) neutral basis), and was in-line with our forecast."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.68 | $0.73 | -7.4% | $13.45B | 30 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.92 | $0.94 | -1.2% | $13.62B | 20 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.58 | $3.58 | +0.0% | $51.13B | 35 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.76 | $3.81 | -1.3% | $56.63B | 44 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2027-03-19 (includes earnings 2027-01-19): ±18.5%; earnings reaction alone ±7.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±6.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 32.3% | ±3.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 32.1% | ±5.2% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 31.9% | ±6.4% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 31.3% | ±7.1% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 30.9% | ±7.8% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 26.9% | ±7.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 31.1% | ±9.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 33.1% | ±12.8% |