# Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/NGVC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC), nexqual.com/NGVC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 32.37 (+7.65% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 30.07 · day 30.45–32.44 · 52w 23.47–41.07 · market cap $746M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.34B, net income $47.6M (3.5% margin), free cash flow $22.7M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.7x (avg 17.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 7.6x, net cash $16.0M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $87K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($87K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 42.25 (range 35–54).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -18.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +212.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-19, EPS estimate USD 0.56, revenue estimate $353M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B | $1.09B | $1.14B | $1.24B | $1.33B | $1.34B |
| Gross profit | $292M | $305M | $327M | $365M | $398M | — |
| Operating income | $28.3M | $30.2M | $31.7M | $47.0M | $62.0M | $63.3M |
| Net income | $20.6M | $21.4M | $23.2M | $33.9M | $46.4M | $47.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.91 | $0.94 | $1.02 | $1.47 | $2.00 | — |
| Free cash flow | $27.5M | $11.7M | $28.0M | $36.2M | $24.1M | $22.7M |
| Gross margin | 27.7% | 28.0% | 28.7% | 29.4% | 29.9% | — |
| Operating margin | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| Net margin | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Revenue growth | +1.8% | +3.2% | +4.7% | +8.9% | +7.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $23.7M | $12.0M | $18.3M | $8.9M | $17.1M | — |
| Total debt | $23.7M | $15.7M | $7.7M | $0K | $0K | — |
Fiscal years end Sep. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 15.7x · P/S 0.6x · EV/EBITDA 7.6x · EV/Sales 0.5x · P/FCF 32.8x · P/B 3.1x · FCF yield 3.04% · Earnings yield 6.39% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.76% · Net cash $16.0M · EV $730M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Sep 2025 20.0x, Sep 2024 20.2x, Sep 2023 12.7x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Isely Charity |  | 3,000 | $87K | 21.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 42.25 (low 35, high 54).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | B of A Securities | Initiated | Buy | $35 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -18.8% | +212.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -18.9% | +25.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.0% | 46.2% |
| Max drawdown | -41.5% (Oct 2025→Jan 2026) | -58.2% (May 2025→Dec 2025) |

## Peers (Grocery Stores)
YSWY (Yesway, Inc.) USD 24.51 +5.35% · VLGEA (Village Super Market, Inc.) USD 45.62 +5.12% · DNUT (Krispy Kreme, Inc.) USD 2.95 +2.43% · DDL (Dingdong (Cayman) Limited) USD 1.99 -2.45% · GO (Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.) USD 13.9 +5.70% · IMKTA (Ingles Markets, Incorporated) USD 88.75 +4.24%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/NGVC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in NGVC's own 10-K filed 2025-12-11 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1547459/000143774925037556/ngvc20250930_10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Meta Platforms (META) | "During fiscal year 2025, the measures we took that were aimed at enhancing our brand awareness included: (i) featuring promotions through our {N}power® customer rewards program ({N}power), with a focus on local store mar…" |
| Customer | ByteDance | "During fiscal year 2025, the measures we took that were aimed at enhancing our brand awareness included: (i) featuring promotions through our {N}power® customer rewards program ({N}power), with a focus on local store mar…" |
| Competitor | Kroger (KR) | "Our competition varies by market and includes supermarkets such as Kroger and Safeway; mass or discount retailers such as Wal-Mart and Target; natural and gourmet markets such as Whole Foods and The Fresh Market; foreign…" |
| Competitor | Costco (COST) | "Our competition varies by market and includes supermarkets such as Kroger and Safeway; mass or discount retailers such as Wal-Mart and Target; natural and gourmet markets such as Whole Foods and The Fresh Market; foreign…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grocery | $244.0M | 72.9% | +3.7% |
| Dietary Supplements | $59.9M | 17.9% | -3.4% |
| Manufactured Product Other | $30.9M | 9.2% | -1.7% |
| Total revenue | $334.7M | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.56 | $0.54 | +5.3% | $352.6M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.55 | $0.00 | — | $349.9M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-09-30) | $2.11 | $2.12 | -0.6% | $1.36B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-09-30) | $2.32 | $2.31 | +0.6% | $1.44B | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-18 (includes earnings 2026-11-19): ±19.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 62.4% | ±19.5% |