# Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/NLY · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY), nexqual.com/NLY" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 18.34 (+1.83% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 18.01 · day 18–18.57 · 52w 17.7–24.52 · market cap $13.8B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 4.7x (avg 8.3x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $1.03B vs operating income null over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈7.2x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 0% effective rate).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $2.7M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 2 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 21.68 (range 19.5–25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +0.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +5.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-20, EPS estimate USD 0.79, revenue estimate $534M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $2.39B | $1.73B | -$1.64B | $1.00B | $2.03B | $2.95B |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.39 | $3.92 | -$3.61 | $1.62 | $2.92 | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.34B | $1.58B | $1.41B | $1.49B | $2.04B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 4.7x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈7.2x · P/B 0.8x · Earnings yield 21.35% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 15.18%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 7.1x, Dec 2024 9.5x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Finkelstein David L | CEO and Co-CIO | 50,000 | $1.1M | 6.2% | Yes (adopted November 12, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-04 | Wolfe Serena | Chief Financial Officer | 16,537 | $372K | 7.6% | Yes (adopted November 4, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-04-27 | Finkelstein David L | CEO and Co-CIO | 50,000 | $1.1M | 6% | Yes (adopted May 16, 2024) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 21.68 (low 19.5, high 25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $25 → $21 |
| 2026-10-22 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $24 → $21 |
| 2026-10-22 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $24 → $22 |
| 2026-10-22 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $19 → $19.5 |
| 2026-10-21 | Jones Trading | Target lowered | Buy | $25 → $21 |
| 2026-10-09 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $25 → $21.5 |
| 2026-10-07 | BTIG | Target lowered | Buy | $24 → $21 |
| 2026-07-24 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $26 → $24 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $25 → $24 |
| 2026-07-17 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $24 → $26 |
| 2026-07-02 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $24.5 → $25 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +0.5% | +5.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +0.5% | +1.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 20.4% | 28.3% |
| Max drawdown | -22.5% (Aug 2026→Oct 2026) | -46.2% (Nov 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
AGNC (AGNC Investment Corp.) USD 8.89 +1.25% · RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) USD 8.68 +1.52% · STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S) USD 12.58 +3.71% · DX (Dynex Capital, Inc.) USD 11.05 -0.00% · ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.) USD 12.69 -0.94% · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) USD 10.58 +3.73%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/NLY · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-20)

- "(6) MSR amortization utilizes purchase date cash flow assumptions and actual unpaid principal balances and is calculated as the difference between projected MSR yield income and net servicing income for the period."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.79 | $0.77 | +3.4% | $533.9M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.78 | $0.75 | +4.3% | $561.2M | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.14 | $3.06 | +2.7% | $2.02B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.11 | $3.03 | +2.5% | $2.34B | 13 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 29.7% | ±3.6% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 28.2% | ±4.6% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 25.2% | ±5.0% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 26.5% | ±6.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 28.7% | ±7.3% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 25.4% | ±7.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 26.2% | ±8.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 24.7% | ±10.9% |