# Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/NOG · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG), nexqual.com/NOG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 27.81 (-1.00% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 28.09 · day 27.66–28.46 · 52w 17.18–31.17 · market cap $2.96B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.92B, net income -$486M (-25.4% margin) (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold NOG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $500K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.60 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 30.56 (range 26–35).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +42.5% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y +53.9% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 1.06, revenue estimate $606M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-05
- Dividend: USD 1.8 a year (yield 6.41%), paid quarterly; latest ex-dividend date 2026-09-29; annual dividends grew 26.9% a year 2022–2025.
- Short interest: 22.73% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 9.6 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $975M | $1.99B | $2.17B | $2.23B | $2.48B | $1.92B |
| Gross profit | $804M | $1.73B | $1.82B | $1.80B | $2.00B | — |
| Operating income | $78.0M | $853M | $1.12B | $838M | $246M | -$462M |
| Net income | $6.4M | $773M | $923M | $520M | $38.8M | -$486M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.13 | $8.92 | $10.03 | $5.14 | $0.39 | — |
| Gross margin | 82.5% | 86.9% | 84.0% | 80.7% | 80.9% | — |
| Operating margin | 8.0% | 43.0% | 51.8% | 37.6% | 9.9% | -24.1% |
| Net margin | 0.7% | 38.9% | 42.6% | 23.4% | 1.6% | -25.4% |
| Revenue growth | +76.6% | +103.7% | +9.1% | +2.7% | +11.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $9.5M | $2.5M | $8.2M | $8.9M | $14.3M | — |
| Total debt | $803M | $1.53B | $1.84B | $2.37B | $2.40B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 1.6x · EV/Sales 2.9x · P/B 1.5x · Earnings yield -16.40% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 6.05% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.93% · Net debt $2.68B · EV $5.64B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 55.0x, Dec 2024 7.2x, Dec 2023 3.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold NOG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Den Berg Management I |  | 0.16% | $776K | Added +1.0% |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $500K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Akradi Bahram | Director | 25,760 | $500K | 19.4 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.60 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 30.56 (low 26, high 35).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Scotiabank | Initiated | Sector Perform | $27 |
| 2026-10-15 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $28 → $32 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Underweight | $25 → $26 |
| 2026-10-14 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $29 → $30 |
| 2026-09-10 | Raymond James | Target raised | Outperform | $28 → $31 |
| 2026-07-20 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $36 → $28 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $31 → $29 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +42.5% | +53.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +42.8% | +9.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 44.7% | 48.1% |
| Max drawdown | -41.4% (Mar 2026→Jul 2026) | -53.6% (Nov 2024→Jun 2026) |

## Dividends
Annual dividend rate USD 1.80 per share, yield 6.41% at the current price. Paid over the last 12 months: USD 1.80 in 4 payments (quarterly).
Most recent ex-dividend date: Sep 29, 2026; payment date: Oct 30, 2026. To receive a dividend, shares must be owned before the ex-dividend date.
Latest change: raised 7.1% to USD 0.45 per payment from USD 0.42, starting with the Mar 28, 2025 ex-dividend date.
Payout ratio 462% of earnings (above 100%: dividends exceeded net income; for REITs and partnerships, cash-flow measures are more relevant) · 5-year average yield 2.26% · annual dividends grew 26.9% a year from 2022 to 2025.
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | USD 0.45 |
| 2026-06-29 | USD 0.45 |
| 2026-03-30 | USD 0.45 |
| 2025-12-30 | USD 0.45 |
| 2025-09-29 | USD 0.45 |
| 2025-06-27 | USD 0.45 |
| 2025-03-28 | USD 0.45 |
| 2024-12-30 | USD 0.42 |
Total by calendar year: 2022 USD 0.88 · 2023 USD 1.49 · 2024 USD 1.64 · 2025 USD 1.80.

## Short interest
20,373,793 shares sold short, 22.73% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 21,883,131 shares (-6.9%). Days to cover: 9.6 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Oil & Gas E&P)
BSM (Black Stone Minerals, L.P.) USD 14.8 -0.40% · BTE (Baytex Energy Corp) USD 5.37 -1.65% · CRK (Comstock Resources, Inc.) USD 14.59 -1.88% · CRC (California Resources Corporatio) USD 54.67 -0.09% · CRGY (Crescent Energy Company) USD 13.75 +0.00% · CNX (CNX Resources Corporation) USD 36.79 -3.31%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/NOG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil and Gas Sales | $670.8M | 90.0% | +16.8% |
| Oil and Gas Sales | $670.8M | 90.0% | +16.8% |
| Crude Oil, Condensate, and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) | $559.3M | 75.0% | +38.9% |
| Natural Gas and NGL Sales | $111.5M | 15.0% | -35.0% |
| Other Revenues | $4.3M | 0.6% | +17.6% |
| Total revenue | $745.2M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 270.6% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-13)

- "The Company reiterates its 2026 capital expenditures guidance."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.06 | $0.97 | +9.1% | $605.9M | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.18 | $0.97 | +21.5% | $629.3M | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.23 | $3.90 | +8.4% | $2.18B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $5.20 | $4.27 | +21.9% | $2.52B | 8 |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $1.13 | $1.12 | Beat +0.9% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.74 | $0.68 | Beat +8.8% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.83 | $0.77 | Beat +7.8% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $1.03 | $0.87 | Beat +18.4% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000043/0001104485-26-000043-index.htm |
| 2026-08-26 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; New debt or off-balance-sheet obligation — “2034 Notes Indenture On August 26, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), and Wilmington Trust, National Association, as trustee, entered into an indenture (the "Indenture"), pursuant to which the Company issued $500,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of the Company's 7.500% Senior Notes due 2034 (the "2034 Notes"). Interest and Maturity The 2034 Notes will mature on September 1, 2034, and interest on the 2034 Notes is payable semi-annually in arrears on each March 1 and…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000119312526368292/0001193125-26-368292-index.htm |
| 2026-08-19 | 8-K | Other material event — “On August 19, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), issued a press release announcing that the Company has priced a private offering of $500 million in aggregate principal amount of 7.500% senior notes due 2034 (the "Notes"). A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference. Neither this Current Report on Form 8-K nor the press release constitutes an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, the Notes.” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000119312526357053/0001193125-26-357053-index.htm |
| 2026-08-19 | 8-K | Other material event — “On August 19, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), issued a press release announcing that, subject to market and other conditions, the Company intends to offer for sale $500 million in aggregate principal amount of new senior notes due 2034 (the "Notes") in a private offering to eligible purchasers that is exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000119312526356160/0001193125-26-356160-index.htm |
| 2026-08-13 | Schedule 13G/A | Invesco Ltd.: 6.3% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000091420826000301/0000914208-26-000301-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000032/0001104485-26-000032-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | Schedule 13G | STATE STREET CORPORATION: 6.8% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000009375126000508/0000093751-26-000508-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000030/0001104485-26-000030-index.htm |
| 2026-07-13 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000025/0001104485-26-000025-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.