# Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/NP · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP), nexqual.com/NP" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 28.81 (-2.27% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 29.48 · day 28.77–30.3 · 52w 14.78–35.15 · market cap $3.98B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $197M, net income $44.7M (22.7% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 89.0x (avg 81.5x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 9 Form 4 filings, $424M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($420M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.15 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 34.27 (range 31–39).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +11.3% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y -5.2% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Latest earnings report: 2026-10-20 (next date not yet announced).
- Dividend: NP paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 8.25% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 4.1 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $84.9M | $119M | $160M | $197M |
| Operating income | $45.4M | $68.4M | $71.0M | $81.3M |
| Net income | $17.9M | $34.6M | $37.4M | $44.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.10 | $0.16 | -$0.26 | — |
| Operating margin | 53.5% | 57.4% | 44.5% | 41.3% |
| Net margin | 21.1% | 29.0% | 23.4% | 22.7% |
| Revenue growth | — | +40.6% | +33.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $24.3M | $7.1M | $8.0M | — |
| Total debt | — | $134M | $0K | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 89.0x · P/S 20.2x · Earnings yield 1.12%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 81.5x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 9 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Duffy Matthew Paul | President & Chief Risk Officer | 84,441 | $2.4M | 4.3% | Yes (adopted June 12, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-06 | Duffy Matthew Paul | President & Chief Risk Officer | 41,392 | $1.1M | 2.1% | Yes (adopted June 12, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Duffy Matthew Paul | President & Chief Risk Officer | 39,737 | $1.1M | 1.9% | Yes (adopted June 12, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-14 | Carlon Jonathan Winant | Director | 50,000 | $1.6M | 0.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-12…2026-08-13 | Steiner James | Chief Financial Officer | 100,000 | $3.1M | 2.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-29 | Bsiv Hold 101, Lp |  | 1,632,160 | $54.2M | 11.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-29 | Ftv Vii, L.P. |  | 1,867,840 | $62.0M | 11.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-15…2026-05-19 | Bsiv Hold 101, Lp |  | 5,277,754 | $139M | 27% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-15…2026-05-19 | Ftv Vii, L.P. |  | 6,039,850 | $159M | 27% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.15 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 34.27 (low 31, high 39).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $36 → $35 |
| 2026-10-21 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $32 → $33 |
| 2026-10-21 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $31 → $33 |
| 2026-10-12 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $37 → $34 |
| 2026-10-07 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $32 → $31 |
| 2026-08-19 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight → Overweight | $31 → $36 |
| 2026-07-30 | BMO Capital | Downgrade | Outperform → Market Perform | $32 |
| 2026-07-24 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Market Perform | $34 → $33 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $35 → $37 |
| 2026-07-22 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $35 → $36 |
| 2026-07-15 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $30 → $39 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $26 → $30 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2025-09-29) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +11.3% | -5.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +11.4% | -4.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 60.4% | 50.2% |
| Max drawdown | -43.8% (Dec 2025→Feb 2026) | -37.9% (Sep 2025→Feb 2026) |

## Dividends
NP paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
2,321,761 shares sold short, 8.25% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 1,807,146 shares (+28.5%). Days to cover: 4.1 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Insurance Brokers)
CRVL (CorVel Corp.) USD 82.19 +0.75% · ARX (Accelerant Holdings) USD 19.82 +0.05% · BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group, In) USD 31.83 -0.38% · LIFE (Ethos Technologies Inc.) USD 43.62 +1.84% · GSHD (Goosehead Insurance, Inc.) USD 47.57 +2.74% · RYAN (Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.) USD 43.28 +1.55%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/NP · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commission income | $45.9M | 77.1% | +35.4% |
| Fee income | $13.7M | 22.9% | +30.7% |
| Total revenue | $59.6M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-20)

- "Effectiveness of Information The targets included in our earnings presentation and the statements made during the earnings conference call, each of which is available on the Company's investor relations website at investors.neptuneflood.com (collectively, the "Earnings Materials"), represent the Company's expectations and beliefs as of October 20, 2026."
- "Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any of these forward-looking statements."
- "(2) Assumes the conversion of all 41,850,000 shares of Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock into an equivalent number of shares of common stock."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.15 | $0.15 | +0.5% | $52.8M | 12 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.12 | $0.12 | -1.2% | $46.6M | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.56 | $0.55 | +2.1% | $206.0M | 11 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.67 | $0.67 | +1.1% | $242.9M | 13 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-19 | 113 | 50.9% | ±22.6% |
| 2027-05-21 | 204 | 51.4% | ±30.5% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 | $0.17 | $0.16 | Beat +6.3% | -3.1% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.09 | $0.10 | Miss −10.0% | -2.4% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.10 | $0.10 | In line | +5.4% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -3.0% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Sep 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000162828026066930/0001628280-26-066930-index.htm |
| 2026-10-20 | 8-K | Quarterly results; Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “Resignation of Chief Financial Officer On October 19, 2026, Jim Steiner, the Company's Chief Financial Officer, principal financial officer and principal accounting officer, notified the Company of his intent to resign from his position, effective following the filing of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026 (the "Transition Date"). Mr. Steiner has informed the Company that his decision to resign is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000162828026066494/0001628280-26-066494-index.htm |
| 2026-10-02 | 8-K/A | Current report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000162828026064575/0001628280-26-064575-index.htm |
| 2026-10-01 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure — “On September 30, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (the "Company"), acting by unanimous written consent, increased the size of the Board from six (6) to seven (7) directors and elected David Noble to fill the resulting vacancy, effective immediately. Mr. Noble will serve as a Class I director, with a term expiring at the Company's 2029 annual meeting of stockholders and until his successor is duly elected and qualified, or until his earlier death, resignation,…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000162828026064028/0001628280-26-064028-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | FTV VII, L.P., FTV-NE Aggregator, LLC: 17.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000189416326000002/0001894163-26-000002-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.: 6.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000189761226000623/0001897612-26-000623-index.htm |
| 2026-08-13 | Schedule 13G/A | BSIV Hold 101, LP, BSIV Hold 101 GP, LLC: 15.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000119312526349969/0001193125-26-349969-index.htm |
| 2026-07-27 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000162828026049809/0001628280-26-049809-index.htm |
| 2026-07-21 | 8-K | Current report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2067129/000162828026048999/0001628280-26-048999-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.