# NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/NRG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG), nexqual.com/NRG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 94.38 (-5.43% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 99.8 · day 93.61–99.3 · 52w 93.36–189.96 · market cap $19.8B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $33.1B, net income $849M (2.6% margin), free cash flow $348M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 23.4x (avg 26.9x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 12.1x, net debt $24.7B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$967M vs operating income $2.02B over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈12.2x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 19% effective rate).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold NRG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $4.3M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (18 analysts), mean target USD 179 (range 104–270).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -41.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +161.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 3.05, revenue estimate $9.35B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.0B | $31.5B | $28.8B | $28.1B | $30.7B | $33.1B |
| Operating income | $3.34B | $2.02B | $384M | $2.42B | $1.84B | $2.02B |
| Net income | $2.19B | $1.22B | -$202M | $1.13B | $864M | $849M |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.93 | $5.17 | -$1.12 | $4.99 | $4.01 | — |
| Free cash flow | $224M | -$7.0M | -$819M | $1.83B | $766M | $348M |
| Operating margin | 12.4% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| Net margin | 8.1% | 3.9% | -0.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Revenue growth | +196.8% | +16.9% | -8.6% | -2.4% | +9.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $250M | $430M | $541M | $966M | $4.71B | — |
| Total debt | $8.10B | $8.10B | $10.9B | $10.9B | $16.6B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 23.4x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈12.2x · P/S 0.6x · EV/EBITDA 12.1x · EV/Sales 1.4x · P/FCF 57.0x · P/B 4.1x · FCF yield 1.75% · Earnings yield 4.28% · Buyback yield (TTM) 8.26% · Net debt $24.7B · EV $44.6B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 36.7x, Dec 2024 17.0x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold NRG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Tepper | Appaloosa Management | 3.44% | $257M | Added +1.5% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Spencer Gerald Alfred | SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | 1,580 | $191K | 20.3% | Yes (adopted June 5, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-15 | Kinney Virginia | Exec VP, Chief Admin Officer | 11,145 | $1.6M | 24.7% | Yes (adopted August 8, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-15 | Kinney Virginia | Exec VP, Chief Admin Officer | 20,000 | $2.6M | 30.7% | Yes (adopted August 8, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 18 analysts; mean target USD 179 (low 104, high 270).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | HSBC | Initiated | Buy | $179 |
| 2026-10-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $159 → $144 |
| 2026-09-18 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $162 → $159 |
| 2026-08-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $165 → $162 |
| 2026-08-05 | Scotiabank | Target lowered | Sector Outperform | $226 → $211 |
| 2026-08-05 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $215 → $195 |
| 2026-07-28 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $221 → $216 |
| 2026-07-28 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Market Perform | $213 → $212 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $200 → $204 |
| 2026-07-16 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $203 → $209 |
| 2026-07-15 | Scotiabank | Target raised | Sector Outperform | $223 → $226 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -41.7% | +161.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -41.8% | +21.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 50.0% | 41.4% |
| Max drawdown | -48.4% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -47.0% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Utilities - Independent Power Producers)
TLN (Talen Energy Corporation) USD 331.42 -7.81% · VST (Vistra Corp.) USD 140.83 -9.81% · OKLO (Oklo Inc.) USD 27.01 -2.60% · CEG (Constellation Energy Corporatio) USD 255.21 -5.74% · TAC (TransAlta Corporation) USD 12.51 -6.22% · HNRG (Hallador Energy Company) USD 11.22 -2.01%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/NRG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in NRG's own 10-K filed 2026-02-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000101387126000004/nrg-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | GE Vernova (GEV) | "On February 13, 2025, NRG signed a strategic Project Development Agreement with GE Vernova ("GEV") and Kiewit's subsidiary, TIC, to develop and construct up to 5.4 GW of new gas-fired, combined cycle generation projects." |

Other companies that name NRG in their own reports (relationship from NRG's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| related | California Resources Corp (CRC) | 10-K 2026-03-02 | "•We own a 50% interest in a 240 MW cogeneration power plant located in the Midway Sunset field in Kern County and the remaining 50% is held by San Joaquin Energy Company, a subsidiary of NRG Energy, I…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East | $3.39B | 45.3% | +25.3% | $506.0M | 14.9% |
| Texas | $2.75B | 36.8% | -2.9% | $289.0M | 10.5% |
| West/Other | $643.0M | 8.6% | -0.9% | $154.0M | 24.0% |
| Vivint Smart Home | $548.0M | 7.3% | +10.9% | $71.0M | 13.0% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$44.0M | — |
| Total revenue | $7.48B | 100% | — | $976.0M | 13.0% |
The lines above cover 98% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total operating revenue | $2.75B | 36.7% | -3.5% |
| — Products & Services Retail Revenue (part of Total operating revenue) | $2.70B | 36.1% | -2.9% |
| — Products & Services Other (part of Total operating revenue) | $34.0M | 0.5% | -34.6% |
| — Energy Revenue (part of Total operating revenue) | $14.0M | 0.2% | -6.7% |
| Total revenue | $7.48B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 36.7% of total revenue.

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.05 | $3.17 | -3.9% | $9.35B | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.52 | $2.30 | +9.6% | $8.89B | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $8.77 | $9.12 | -3.8% | $35.35B | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $10.81 | $11.74 | -7.9% | $36.10B | 13 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±10.5%; earnings reaction alone ±5.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 56.5% | ±6.7% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 64.6% | ±10.5% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 60.7% | ±11.9% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 58.7% | ±13.2% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 56.3% | ±14.1% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 53.6% | ±14.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 53.9% | ±17.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 52.6% | ±20.2% |