# Natera, Inc. (NTRA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/NTRA · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Natera, Inc. (NTRA), nexqual.com/NTRA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 401.37 (-2.91% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 413.38 · day 383.76–416 · 52w 181–437.41 · market cap $57.9B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.71B, net income -$192M (-7.1% margin), free cash flow $84.2M (SEC filings).
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold NTRA (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 3 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +105.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +249.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.28, revenue estimate $707M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $625M | $820M | $1.08B | $1.70B | $2.31B | $2.71B |
| Operating income | -$468M | -$541M | -$446M | -$222M | -$310M | -$290M |
| Net income | -$472M | -$548M | -$435M | -$190M | -$208M | -$192M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$5.21 | -$5.57 | -$3.78 | -$1.53 | -$1.52 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$376M | -$479M | -$286M | $69.2M | $109M | $84.2M |
| Operating margin | -74.8% | -66.0% | -41.2% | -13.1% | -13.4% | -10.7% |
| Net margin | -75.4% | -66.8% | -40.2% | -11.2% | -9.0% | -7.1% |
| Revenue growth | +60.0% | +31.1% | +32.0% | +56.7% | +35.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $914M | $898M | $879M | $968M | — | — |
| Total debt | $330M | $362M | $363M | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 21.4x · P/FCF 687.1x · P/B 31.8x · FCF yield 0.15% · Earnings yield -0.33%

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold NTRA. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | 3.32% | $368M | Added +15.8% |
| Torray Funds |  | 0.36% | $2.6M | Added +1.7% |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 0.30% | $106M | New position |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | <0.01% | $442K | Added +28.2% |

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Canaccord Genuity | Target raised | Buy | $375 → $500 |
| 2026-10-14 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $360 → $460 |
| 2026-10-13 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $355 → $435 |
| 2026-10-13 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $340 → $480 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $340 → $475 |
| 2026-10-06 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $365 → $480 |
| 2026-10-01 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Buy | $360 → $475 |
| 2026-09-25 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $350 → $460 |
| 2026-09-09 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $290 → $435 |
| 2026-09-08 | Rothschild & Co | Initiated | Buy | $385 |
| 2026-08-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $315 → $365 |
| 2026-08-12 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $249 → $363.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +105.8% | +249.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +106.3% | +28.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 47.7% | 52.2% |
| Max drawdown | -28.2% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -71.1% (Nov 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Diagnostics & Research)
A (Agilent Technologies, Inc.) USD 173.89 -2.17% · IQV (IQVIA Holdings, Inc.) USD 278.32 +0.61% · WAT (Waters Corporation) USD 455.59 -0.41% · IDXX (IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.) USD 566.76 +2.40% · ILMN (Illumina, Inc.) USD 269.4 -4.76% · MTD (Mettler-Toledo International, I) USD 1,684.64 +0.40%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/NTRA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in NTRA's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1604821/000110465926020881/ntra-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Laboratory | "Laboratory tests, as with most other health care services, are classified for reimbursement purposes under a coding system known as Current Procedure Terminology, or CPT, which we and our customers must use to bill and r…" |
| Partner | BGI Genomics | "For example, we have entered into an agreement with BGI Genomics pursuant to which, among others, BGI Genomics commercializes our MRD test in China on its sequencing platform." |
| Partner | DNAnexus | "We host the majority of these algorithms on a cloud‑based software platform pursuant to an agreement with DNAnexus, Inc., or DNAnexus, and both we and our Constellation licensees access our algorithms through the DNAnexu…" |
| Related party | MyOme | "None of the related party investments in MyOme by our executives and directors noted above were at the behest of the Company nor funded by the Company." |

Other companies that name NTRA in their own reports (relationship from NTRA's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Allogene Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLO) | 10-K 2026-03-12 | "Additionally, in February 2025, we entered into an Amended and Restated Strategic Collaboration Agreement with Foresight Diagnostics (which was acquired by Natera in December 2025 and continues to ope…" |
| supplier | Personalis, Inc. (PSNL) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "We previously derived a significant portion of our revenue from Natera under our partnership to provide advanced tumor analysis for use in Natera's MRD testing." |
| partner | EXELIXIS, INC. (EXEL) | 10-K 2026-02-10 | "Beyond STELLAR-001, STELLAR-002, STELLAR-303, STELLAR-304 and STELLAR-311, we intend to initiate additional early-stage and pivotal trials evaluating zanzalintinib across a broad array of potential fu…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product revenues | $747.9M | 99.4% | +37.4% |
| Licensing and other revenues | $4.8M | 0.6% | +121.9% |
| Total revenue | $752.8M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $739.5M | 98.2% | +37.5% |
| Europe, Middle East, India, Africa | $9.0M | 1.2% | +66.7% |
| Americas, excluding U.S. | $2.2M | 0.3% | +41.3% |
| Asia Pacific and Other | $2.0M | 0.3% | +12.4% |
| Total revenue | $752.8M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 16.5% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-07).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Natera anticipates 2026 total revenue of $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion; 2026 gross margin 1 to be approximately 64% to 66%; selling, general and administrative costs to be approximately $1.125 billion to $1.225 billion; research and development costs to be $800 million to $900 million; and cash flow to be positive."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.28 | $-0.38 | -25.9% | $707.5M | 14 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.12 | $-0.20 | -37.7% | $749.6M | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.46 | $-1.71 | -14.4% | $2.91B | 17 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.18 | $-0.20 | -13.1% | $3.52B | 16 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±14.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±6.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 64.1% | ±14.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 55.7% | ±17.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 54.4% | ±20.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 55.3% | ±27.9% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 54.1% | ±29.7% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 54.9% | ±34.9% |
| 2027-08-20 | 301 | 54.3% | ±38.7% |