# Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/NVAX · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Novavax, Inc. (NVAX), nexqual.com/NVAX" · informational, not investment advice.

## NVAX major shareholder filing: Schedule 13D/A, Oct 16, 2026
Shah Capital Management, Shah Capital Fund LLC, Himanshu H. Shah filed a Schedule 13D/A on Oct 16, 2026, reporting up to 6.46% of the class (more than 5% owner that may seek to influence the company). Item 4, Purpose of Transaction, quoted:

> Effective as of October 16, 2026, Shah Capital filed a Form ADV-W to voluntarily withdraw its registration as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Consequently, Shah Capital no longer operates as a registered investment adviser, and the Reporting Persons have updated their regulatory status accordingly. As a result, the Reporting Persons no longer hold the shares with a purpose of influencing control and intend to report on Schedule 13G going forward. The Reporting Persons completed a restructuring of their investment management activities in connection with the formation of a family office. Himanshu Shah Family Office LLC has been established to manage the investments and financial affairs of Himanshu Shah's family which was previously managed by Shah Capital Management. As part of this restructuring, Shah Capital Management voluntarily withdrew its registration as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on October 16, 2026. In connection with the foregoing, Shah Capital Fund LLC has been formed and has became part of this family office structure. The securities reported herein may be held directly or indirectly through Shah Capital Fund LLC. …

Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000694/000139834426018323/0001398344-26-018323-index.htm

**Price:** USD 10.32 (+2.99% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 10.02 · day 9.74–10.34 · 52w 6.2–13.39 · market cap $1.70B · NMS

## Key facts
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 14.22 (range 7–25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +23.1% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y -93.1% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.34, revenue estimate $54.2M.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 4.1x · EV/Sales 3.1x · FCF yield -2.48% · Earnings yield -14.55% · Net cash $428M · EV $1.27B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 2.6x.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 14.22 (low 7, high 25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Citigroup | Target raised | Sell | $7 → $8 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +23.1% | -93.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +23.2% | -41.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 69.3% | 89.5% |
| Max drawdown | -34.6% (Feb 2026→Jul 2026) | -98.2% (Nov 2021→Jan 2024) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 91.97 -0.23% · ORKA (Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 95.97 +0.17% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.81 +1.58% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 44.9 +2.14% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 143.51 +0.92% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 285.48 +6.69%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/NVAX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in NVAX's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000694/000100069426000007/nvax-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Sanofi Pasteur | "•Our existing collaboration, funding and supply agreements, including the Sanofi CLA and our APAs, do not assure success of our vaccine candidates or vaccines or that we will be able to fully fund our vaccine candidates …" |
| Partner | Pfizer (PFE) | "In January 2026, we entered into a non-exclusive license agreement with Pfizer for use of Matrix-M adjuvant in up to two infectious disease areas." |
| Partner | Pharmaceutical Company | "Beginning in 2025 and continuing during the term of the Sanofi CLA, we and Sanofi will commercialize the COVID-19 Vaccine worldwide in accordance with a commercialization plan agreed by the parties, under which we will c…" |
| Competitor | Moderna (MRNA) | "Several competitors are working on developing seasonal influenza vaccines using different technologies than those in existing marketed vaccines, the most notable being mRNA from companies including Moderna and Pfizer." |
| Competitor | Merck (MRK) | "Large and established companies, such as Merck & Co., Inc., GlaxoSmithKline plc, CSL Ltd., Sanofi Pasteur, SA, Pfizer Inc., AstraZeneca, and Moderna, among others, compete in the vaccine market." |

Other companies that name NVAX in their own reports (relationship from NVAX's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) | 10-K 2026-03-04 | "Companies such as Pfizer Inc./BioNTech SE, Moderna, Inc., CureVac N.V in partnership with GSK plc, Vivaldi Biosciences Inc., and Novavax, Inc. are also in the process of developing a combination vacci…" |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.34 | $-0.02 | −$0.31 | $54.2M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.01 | $-0.08 | +$0.07 | $115.3M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.59 | $-0.47 | −$0.12 | $378.8M | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.03 | $-0.25 | +$0.22 | $299.6M | 8 |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.32 | −$0.38 | Beat +15.8% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.06 | −$0.24 | Beat +75.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.11 | −$0.49 | Beat +$0.60 | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$1.25 | −$1.17 | Miss −6.8% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Schedule 13G | Shah Capital Management, Shah Capital Fund LLC: 6.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000694/000139834426018328/0001398344-26-018328-index.htm |
| 2026-10-16 | Schedule 13D/A | Shah Capital Management, Shah Capital Fund LLC: 6.5% of shares, 5%+ holder that may seek to influence the company (amended) — “Effective as of October 16, 2026, Shah Capital filed a Form ADV-W to voluntarily withdraw its registration as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Consequently, Shah Capital no longer operates as a registered investment adviser, and the…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000694/000139834426018323/0001398344-26-018323-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | Schedule 13G | STATE STREET CORPORATION: 7.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000694/000009375126000510/0000093751-26-000510-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000694/000100069426000019/0001000694-26-000019-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000694/000100069426000018/0001000694-26-000018-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.