# Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/OCUL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL), nexqual.com/OCUL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 6.61 (+2.01% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 6.48 · day 6.4–6.67 · 52w 6–16.44 · market cap $1.45B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $52.1M, net income -$301M (-579.1% margin), free cash flow -$255M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 13 Form 4 filings, $928K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($11K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 1 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 26 (range 14–34).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -42.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -4.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD -0.35, revenue estimate $14.3M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $43.5M | $51.5M | $58.4M | $63.7M | $52.0M | $52.1M |
| Gross profit | $39.1M | $47.0M | $53.2M | $58.1M | $45.4M | — |
| Operating income | -$78.0M | -$78.7M | -$82.4M | -$172M | -$270M | -$314M |
| Net income | -$6.6M | -$71.0M | -$80.7M | -$194M | -$266M | -$301M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.98 | -$0.97 | -$1.02 | -$1.22 | -$1.42 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$66.7M | -$63.3M | -$76.3M | -$136M | -$217M | -$255M |
| Gross margin | 89.9% | 91.2% | 91.0% | 91.2% | 87.3% | — |
| Operating margin | -179.3% | -152.7% | -141.0% | -269.6% | -519.8% | -603.0% |
| Net margin | -15.1% | -138.0% | -138.1% | -303.7% | -511.9% | -579.1% |
| Revenue growth | +150.1% | +18.3% | +13.5% | +9.0% | -18.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $164M | $102M | $196M | $392M | $737M | — |
| Total debt | $26.4M | $28.7M | $9.1M | $68.5M | $71.3M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 27.9x · EV/Sales 17.8x · P/B 2.8x · FCF yield -17.57% · Earnings yield -20.77% · Net cash $526M · EV $926M

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
12 of 13 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Anderman Todd | Chief Legal Officer | 11,984 | $87K | 7.9% | Yes (adopted October 7, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-10-02 | Kaiser Peter | Chief Development Officer | 9,990 | $70K | 3.8% | Yes (adopted April 9, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-10-02 | Heier Jeffrey S. | Chief Scientific Officer | 10,869 | $77K | 3.4% | Yes (adopted April 9, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-31 | Notman Donald | Chief Operating Officer | 1,099 | $11K | 0.3% | No | Routine (sold in Feb each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-24 | Kaiser Peter | Chief Development Officer | 3,035 | $33K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted April 9, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-24 | Nayak Sanjay | Chief Strategy Officer | 1,897 | $20K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted February 21, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-24 | Heier Jeffrey S. | Chief Scientific Officer | 3,296 | $36K | 1% | Yes (adopted April 9, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-24 | Dugel Pravin | See Remarks | 21,649 | $233K | 0.7% | Yes (adopted February 21, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-03 | Waheed Nadia | Chief Medical Officer | 14,828 | $123K | 4.7% | Yes (adopted June 1, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-26 | Dugel Pravin | See Remarks | 21,156 | $173K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted February 21, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-26 | Kaiser Peter | Chief Development Officer | 2,967 | $24K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted April 9, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-26 | Heier Jeffrey S. | Chief Scientific Officer | 3,018 | $25K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted April 9, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-26 | Nayak Sanjay | Chief Strategy Officer | 1,858 | $15K | 0.6% | Yes (adopted February 21, 2024) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 26 (low 14, high 34).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $18 |
| 2026-10-12 | UBS | Initiated | Buy | $14 |
| 2026-10-02 | Chardan Capital | Maintained | Buy | $23 |
| 2026-09-29 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $18 |
| 2026-09-16 | Chardan Capital | Maintained | Buy | $23 |
| 2026-09-16 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterated | Buy | $25 |
| 2026-08-04 | Chardan Capital | Maintained | Buy | $23 |
| 2026-06-25 | Chardan Capital | Target raised | Buy | $21 → $23 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -42.2% | -4.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -42.3% | -0.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 74.0% | 76.6% |
| Max drawdown | -61.0% (Dec 2025→Oct 2026) | -71.7% (Jun 2023→Nov 2023) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 307.82 -2.21% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 90.9 +2.57% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.14 -3.28% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 258.92 +0.96% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 43.91 -0.81% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 90.23 -3.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/OCUL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in OCUL's own 10-K filed 2026-02-05 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393434/000110465926010664/ocul-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | AffaMed Therapeutics | "We hold worldwide exclusive commercial rights to the core technology underlying all of our product candidates in development and have not granted commercial rights to any marketing partners other than a license agreement…" |
| Partner | Incept | "In January 2012, we entered into an amended and restated license agreement, which we refer to as either the Prior Agreement or Original License, with Incept under which we hold an exclusive, worldwide, perpetual, irrevoc…" |
| Partner | Barings Finance | "For the year ended December 31, 2023, our interest-bearing debt included the Barings Credit Facility (from August 2, 2023), the Convertible Notes, and our obligations under a credit and security agreement with MidCap Fin…" |
| Competitor | AMD (AMD) | "In wet AMD and diabetic retinal disease, AXPAXLI will compete with anti-VEGF compounds administered in their current formulation and prescribed for the treatment of wet AMD as these agents can in some instances deliver m…" |

Other companies that name OCUL in their own reports (relationship from OCUL's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | EyePoint, Inc. (EYPT) | 10-K 2026-03-05 | "In August 2025, Ocular Therapeutix announced it received a SPA agreement with the FDA for its Phase 3 HELIOS-2 trial for AXPAXLI in NPDR." |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 43%, 25%, 6% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-03).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-03)

- "In a new post-hoc analysis of SOL-1 data applying the SOL-R rescue criteria of >5 ETDRS letter loss and ≥75 µm CSFT increase from baseline, we estimate a treatment burden reduction of up to 72% as compared to a projected on-label dosing regimen of aflibercept (2 mg) over 60 weeks."
- "Post-hoc Analysis of SOL-1 (Phase 3, wet AMD) demonstrates up to an estimated 72% reduction in treatment burden over 60 weeks with AXPAXLI relative to a projected on-label dosing regimen of aflibercept (2 mg) every 8 weeks."
- "The total estimated mean injection burden with AXPAXLI represents a 72% reduction counting from the first screening visit at Week -8 excluding loading doses and a 56% reduction when loading doses are included, as compared to a projected on-label dosing regimen of aflibercept (2 mg) with no rescues. ·"
- "Following these changes, topline SOL-R results are now expected in the first quarter of 2028."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.35 | $-0.39 | -8.4% | $14.3M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.38 | $-0.41 | -6.7% | $14.2M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.44 | $-1.55 | -7.0% | $52.8M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-1.48 | $-1.54 | -3.7% | $102.0M | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±17.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±7.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 62.5% | ±17.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 88.3% | ±24.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 62.6% | ±25.4% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 72.0% | ±37.1% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 105.4% | ±67.3% |