# Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/OLLI · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI), nexqual.com/OLLI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 92.63 (+0.84% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 91.86 · day 89.85–93.69 · 52w 60.29–130.4 · market cap $5.50B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Aug 1, 2026): revenue $2.79B, net income $274M (9.8% margin), free cash flow $223M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 20.1x (avg 29.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 13.4x, net cash $119M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $319K; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.07 on a 1–5 scale) (15 analysts), mean target USD 101.6 (range 76–130).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -23.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +38.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-09-02, EPS estimate USD 0.77, revenue estimate $675M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.75B | $1.83B | $2.10B | $2.27B | $2.65B | $2.79B |
| Gross profit | $681M | $656M | $832M | $914M | $1.07B | — |
| Operating income | $205M | $131M | $228M | $250M | $298M | $343M |
| Net income | $157M | $103M | $181M | $200M | $241M | $274M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.43 | $1.64 | $2.92 | $3.23 | $3.89 | — |
| Free cash flow | $10.0M | $62.7M | $130M | $107M | $195M | $223M |
| Gross margin | 38.9% | 35.9% | 39.6% | 40.3% | 40.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 11.7% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 12.3% |
| Net margin | 9.0% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.8% |
| Revenue growth | -3.1% | +4.2% | +15.1% | +8.0% | +16.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $247M | $211M | $266M | $205M | $260M | — |
| Total debt | $719K | $858K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $974K | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Aug 1, 2026)
P/E 20.1x · P/S 2.0x · EV/EBITDA 13.4x · EV/Sales 1.9x · P/FCF 24.6x · P/B 2.9x · FCF yield 4.06% · Earnings yield 4.97% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.32% · Net cash $119M · EV $5.38B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jan 2026 28.3x, Feb 2025 32.0x, Feb 2024 27.4x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Swygert John W | Executive Chairman | 3,330 | $319K | 6.5% | Yes (adopted June 23, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.07 on a 1–5 scale), 15 analysts; mean target USD 101.6 (low 76, high 130).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Gordon Haskett | Upgrade | Accumulate → Buy | $105 |
| 2026-09-04 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $100 → $98 |
| 2026-09-03 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Buy | $112 → $100 |
| 2026-09-03 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $113 → $100 |
| 2026-09-03 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $80 → $85 |
| 2026-09-03 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $108 → $98 |
| 2026-09-03 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $121 → $124 |
| 2026-09-03 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $100 → $90 |
| 2026-08-27 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $87 → $85 |
| 2026-08-26 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $111 → $100 |
| 2026-08-25 | RBC Capital | Reiterated | Outperform | $121 |
| 2026-08-18 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $114 → $113 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -23.6% | +38.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -23.6% | +6.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.6% | 41.9% |
| Max drawdown | -51.9% (Nov 2025→Jul 2026) | -53.0% (Jul 2025→Jul 2026) |

## Peers (Discount Stores)
PSMT (PriceSmart, Inc.) USD 171.59 +0.03% · TBBB (BBB Foods Inc.) USD 57.6 -1.44% · BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I) USD 106.63 +4.12% · DLTR (Dollar Tree, Inc.) USD 131.04 +4.43% · DG (Dollar General Corporation) USD 139.11 +5.29% · TGT (Target Corporation) USD 158.11 +3.76%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/OLLI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in OLLI's own 10-K filed 2026-03-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639300/000114036126010409/ef20060524_10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Visa (V) | "On July 23, 2024, we announced our partnership with Sunbit, a leading financial technology company, to launch a co-branded Visa® credit card, our first-ever co-branded credit card program." |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-09-02)

- "Outlook for Fiscal 2026 HARRISBURG, PA – September 2, 2026 – Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $0.77 | $0.83 | -7.4% | $675.4M | 15 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $1.52 | $1.59 | -4.4% | $859.6M | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-01-31) | $4.61 | $4.46 | +3.3% | $2.93B | 15 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-01-31) | $4.95 | $5.07 | -2.4% | $3.26B | 15 |