# Onterris, Inc. (ONT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ONT · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Onterris, Inc. (ONT), nexqual.com/ONT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 14.64 (+4.95% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 13.95 · day 14.01–14.68 · 52w 12.26–30 · market cap $514M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $773M, net income -$11.2M (-1.4% margin), free cash flow $52.1M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $610K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 18.2 (range 14–23).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -48.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -77.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.41, revenue estimate $197M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $546M | $544M | $624M | $696M | $831M | $773M |
| Gross profit | $177M | $193M | $240M | $278M | $334M | — |
| Operating income | -$9.5M | -$28.0M | -$28.4M | -$36.7M | $11.7M | $7.8M |
| Net income | -$25.3M | -$31.8M | -$30.9M | -$62.3M | -$843K | -$11.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.56 | -$1.62 | -$1.57 | -$2.22 | -$0.14 | — |
| Free cash flow | $30.7M | $11.1M | $26.4M | $902K | $91.2M | $52.1M |
| Gross margin | 32.5% | 35.4% | 38.5% | 39.9% | 40.3% | — |
| Operating margin | -1.7% | -5.1% | -4.6% | -5.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Net margin | -4.6% | -5.8% | -4.9% | -8.9% | -0.1% | -1.4% |
| Revenue growth | +66.5% | -0.4% | +14.7% | +11.6% | +19.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $147M | $89.8M | $23.2M | $12.9M | $11.2M | — |
| Total debt | $175M | $166M | $165M | $224M | $288M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.7x · EV/EBITDA 14.7x · EV/Sales 1.1x · P/FCF 9.9x · P/B 1.2x · FCF yield 10.13% · Earnings yield -2.17% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.27% · Net debt $336M · EV $850M

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 purchases, $610K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Graham Peter | Director | 25,140 | $432K | 17.19 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-03 | Graham Peter | Director | 4,860 | $77K | 15.94 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Dicks Allan | Chief Financial Officer | 6,535 | $100K | 15.36 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 18.2 (low 14, high 23).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $16 → $14 |
| 2026-08-07 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $28 → $23 |
| 2026-08-07 | Barclays | Downgrade | Overweight → Equal-Weight | $19 → $15 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $24 → $22 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -48.7% | -77.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -48.8% | -25.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 77.4% | 62.2% |
| Max drawdown | -56.5% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -84.4% (Nov 2021→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Waste Management)
NVRI (Enviri Corporation) USD 19.15 -4.25% · OIO (OIO Group) USD 1.87 +1.08% · CWST (Casella Waste Systems, Inc.) USD 96.89 +7.39% · GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin) USD 44.14 +1.52% · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.) USD 320.96 +0.53% · WCN (Waste Connections, Inc.) USD 184.88 +9.86%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ONT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consulting & Treatment | $125.6M | 67.3% | -26.9% |
| Measurement & Analysis | $61.1M | 32.7% | -2.8% |
| Total revenue | $186.7M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $150.7M | 80.8% | -24.3% |
| Canada | $27.1M | 14.5% | -2.1% |
| Other International | $8.8M | 4.7% | +12.2% |
| Total revenue | $186.7M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Guidance, and Announces Board-led Strategic Review Process Updates Date and Time of Conference Call to Today, Wednesday, August 5, at 5:30 p.m."
- "Onterris.com 1 Press Release expansion compared to 2025 and 50 basis points above the Company's original guidance, given successful ongoing cost optimization. • Despite lower revenue, 2026 operating cash flow expectations are la"

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.41 | $0.54 | -23.2% | $197.0M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.47 | $0.52 | -9.2% | $199.9M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.49 | $1.58 | -5.5% | $752.2M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.62 | $1.74 | -7.0% | $813.7M | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±21.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±19.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 96.0% | ±21.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 101.7% | ±32.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 91.8% | ±35.2% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 79.1% | ±39.6% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 82.7% | ±44.9% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 84.6% | ±52.8% |