# Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ONTO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO), nexqual.com/ONTO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 198.67 (-10.57% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 222.14 · day 196.54–207.88 · 52w 118.97–386.46 · market cap $9.75B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.12B, net income $133M (11.8% margin), free cash flow $252M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 73.5x (avg 58.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 59.7x, net cash $410M.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold ONTO (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $902K; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 383.33 (range 330–450).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +50.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +167.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09, EPS estimate USD 2.3, revenue estimate $392M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $789M | $1.01B | $816M | $987M | $1.01B | $1.12B |
| Gross profit | $429M | $539M | $420M | $515M | $500M | — |
| Operating income | -$156M | $237M | $116M | $187M | $133M | $135M |
| Net income | $142M | $223M | $121M | $202M | $137M | $133M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.86 | $4.49 | $2.46 | $4.06 | $2.78 | — |
| Free cash flow | $163M | $118M | $149M | $214M | $300M | $252M |
| Gross margin | 54.4% | 53.6% | 51.5% | 52.2% | 49.7% | — |
| Operating margin | -19.8% | 23.5% | 14.2% | 19.0% | 13.2% | 12.0% |
| Net margin | 18.0% | 22.2% | 14.9% | 20.4% | 13.6% | 11.8% |
| Revenue growth | +41.8% | +27.4% | -18.8% | +21.0% | +1.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $511M | $548M | $698M | $852M | $640M | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 73.5x · P/S 8.7x · EV/EBITDA 59.7x · EV/Sales 8.3x · P/FCF 38.6x · P/B 5.1x · FCF yield 2.59% · Earnings yield 1.36% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.10% · Net cash $410M · EV $9.34B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jan 2026 72.8x, Dec 2024 41.0x, Dec 2023 62.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold ONTO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.05% | $30.0M | Added +84.5% |
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | 0.01% | $785K | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Miller David Brian | Director | 2,000 | $600K | 15.8% | Yes (adopted June 11, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-21 | Lynch Susan D | Director | 1,000 | $302K | 27.1% | Yes (adopted May 22, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 383.33 (low 330, high 450).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | RBC Capital | Initiated | Outperform | $400 |
| 2026-09-08 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $383 → $360 |
| 2026-08-17 | Goldman Sachs | Initiated | Buy | $400 |
| 2026-08-07 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $330 → $360 |
| 2026-08-07 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $350 → $390 |
| 2026-08-07 | Jefferies | Target raised | Buy | $350 → $400 |
| 2026-06-29 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Overweight | $350 → $410 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +50.6% | +167.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +50.8% | +21.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 71.9% | 58.4% |
| Max drawdown | -47.5% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -62.0% (May 2024→May 2025) |

## Peers (Semiconductor Equipment & Materials)
AMKR (Amkor Technology, Inc.) USD 39.05 -10.70% · NVMI (Nova Ltd.) USD 310.13 -6.37% · FORM (FormFactor, Inc.) USD 95.03 -15.29% · CAMT (Camtek Ltd.) USD 119.48 -10.23% · ENTG (Entegris, Inc.) USD 128.31 -13.12% · Q (Qnity Electronics, Inc.) USD 108.78 -9.48%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ONTO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Systems & Software Revenue | $294.0M | 85.7% | +37.1% |
| Parts Revenue | $28.7M | 8.4% | +44.7% |
| Service Revenue | $20.4M | 5.9% | +5.9% |
| Total revenue | $343.1M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | $106.4M | 31.0% | +62.2% |
| South Korea | $100.6M | 29.3% | +21.7% |
| United States | $84.4M | 24.6% | +206.2% |
| Europe | $16.3M | 4.8% | +26.9% |
| China | $14.7M | 4.3% | -15.2% |
| Southeast Asia | $11.3M | 3.3% | -18.6% |
| Japan | $9.5M | 2.8% | -71.9% |
| Total revenue | $343.1M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 16.2%, 15.9%, 14.9%, 10.3% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $2.30 | $1.93 | +19.1% | $392.0M | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.48 | $2.16 | +15.1% | $412.6M | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $8.11 | $7.20 | +12.7% | $1.44B | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $11.70 | $9.95 | +17.6% | $1.88B | 12 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-09): ±18.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 82.6% | ±18.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 75.5% | ±24.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 73.2% | ±28.3% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 72.9% | ±36.9% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 72.4% | ±46.2% |