# Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ORC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC), nexqual.com/ORC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 4.9 (+0.62% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 4.87 · day 4.84–5 · 52w 4.75–8.4 · market cap $967M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 4.0x.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 7.5 (range 7.5–7.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -20.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -50.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD 0.27, revenue estimate $59.1M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | -$64.8M | -$258M | -$39.2M | $37.7M | $159M | $245M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.70 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $385M | $206M | $172M | $309M | $666M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 4.0x · P/B 0.7x · Earnings yield 25.30% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 24.49% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.83%

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 7.5 (low 7.5, high 7.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | BTIG | Initiated | Neutral |  |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -20.4% | -50.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -20.5% | -13.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 23.4% | 32.2% |
| Max drawdown | -34.4% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -66.0% (Nov 2021→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate F) USD 6.3 -0.63% · LADR (Ladder Capital Corp) USD 9.32 +4.02% · CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) USD 8.45 +2.55% · ADAM (Adamas Trust, Inc.) USD 7.73 +3.90% · MFA (MFA Financial, Inc.) USD 6.62 +2.32% · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) USD 11.63 +1.84%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ORC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-22)

- "This compares to an effective duration of 2.513 as of December 31, 2025, which indicated that an interest rate increase of 1.0% would be expected to cause a 2.513 % decrease in the value of the RMBS in the Company's investment portfolio."
- "Orchid Island Capital, Inc. assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking statements."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.27 | $0.28 | -4.5% | $59.1M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.26 | $0.29 | -12.1% | $58.9M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.98 | $1.09 | -10.5% | $235.8M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.93 | $1.05 | -11.4% | $252.5M | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 35.5% | ±8.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 30.7% | ±10.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 32.8% | ±13.8% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 35.4% | ±21.5% |