# Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/OSG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG), nexqual.com/OSG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 4.72 (-0.21% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 4.73 · day 4.7–4.78 · 52w 3.88–10.38 · market cap $213M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $321M, net income -$159M (-49.6% margin) (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold OSG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 11.67 (range 8–15).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -43.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -72.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09, EPS estimate USD -0.05, revenue estimate $92.4M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $282M | $53.6M | $125M | $236M | $251M | $321M |
| Net income | -$17.0M | $522M | $5.0M | -$556M | -$259M | -$159M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.61 | $11.48 | $0.18 | -$11.96 | -$5.93 | — |
| Net margin | -6.0% | 973.9% | 4.0% | -235.8% | -103.1% | -49.6% |
| Revenue growth | +80.8% | -81.0% | +132.6% | +89.1% | +6.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $431M | $513M | $208M | $157M | $215M | — |
| Total debt | $2.23B | $639M | $508M | $150M | $118M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.7x · EV/Sales 0.6x · P/B 0.3x · Earnings yield -74.78% · Net cash $6.2M · EV $206M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2023 151.9x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold OSG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Avenue Management |  | 1.34% | $8.4M | Added +0.1% |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 11.67 (low 8, high 15).

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -43.9% | -72.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -44.0% | -22.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 63.3% | 51.6% |
| Max drawdown | -60.9% (Nov 2025→Apr 2026) | -78.3% (May 2024→Apr 2026) |

## Peers (Insurance - Specialty)
AMSF (AMERISAFE, Inc.) USD 26.58 +4.15% · ITIC (Investors Title Company) USD 288.06 -0.78% · EIG (Employers Holdings Inc) USD 52.72 +1.97% · AGO (Assured Guaranty Ltd.) USD 70.31 +1.50% · NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc) USD 41.49 +1.77% · RDN (Radian Group Inc.) USD 34.7 +2.12%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/OSG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Distribution | $58.4M | 70.4% | +76.8% |
| Specialty Property And Casualty Insurance | $26.4M | 31.8% | +23.4% |
| Corporate | $232,000 | 0.3% | -55.9% |
| Total revenue | $83.0M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 102.5% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accident & Health | $13.9M | 16.7% | +171.2% |
| — Other Professional (part of Accident & Health) | $4.3M | 5.2% | +18.5% |
| — Professional D&O (part of Accident & Health) | $3.5M | 4.2% | +149.5% |
| — Specialty Automobile (part of Accident & Health) | $3.1M | 3.7% | +18.6% |
| — Environmental (part of Accident & Health) | $1.8M | 2.2% | +48.5% |
| — Reinsurance (part of Accident & Health) | $1.1M | 1.3% | -71.7% |
| Property | $9.5M | 11.4% | +16.6% |
| Surety | $5.4M | 6.5% | -690.1% |
| Niche Specialty Risks | $3.9M | 4.7% | +10.4% |
| Miscellaneous Specialty | $2.0M | 2.4% | +1931.0% |
| Marine and Energy | $1.2M | 1.4% | -27.9% |
| Total revenue | $83.0M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 43.2% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $172.3M | 68.6% | -18.9% |
| United Kingdom | $78.9M | 31.4% | +239.9% |
| Total revenue | $251.2M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "(3) greater than expected underwriting losses in the Company's specialty property and casualty insurance business resulting in inadequacy of loss and loss expense reserves and the possibility that changes in reserves may result in further volatility of earnings or financial results;"
- "(8) loss of key relationships for the production of business in our specialty property and casualty and insurance distribution businesses or the inability to secure such additional relationships to produce expected results;"
- "(21) failure to successfully execute business expansion initiatives, integrate acquired businesses, or realize anticipated benefits from such efforts and significant obligations under put rights granted in completed acquisitions; and (22) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.05 | $0.04 | -203.7% | $92.4M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.11 | $0.04 | -375.0% | $88.5M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.17 | $0.45 | -62.2% | $362.5M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.59 | $0.86 | -31.8% | $410.3M | 3 |