# Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PACB · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB), nexqual.com/PACB" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 2.83 (+15.51% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 2.45 · day 2.44–3.07 · 52w 1.07–3.44 · market cap $880M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $159M, net income -$131M (-82.5% margin), free cash flow -$123M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $2.1M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($30K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 1 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.75 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 2.54 (range 1.25–3.05).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +21.9% vs S&P 500 +13.2%; 5Y -89.3% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD -0.13, revenue estimate $39.5M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $131M | $128M | $201M | $154M | $160M | $159M |
| Gross profit | $58.9M | $49.0M | $52.8M | $37.3M | $45.8M | — |
| Operating income | -$210M | -$307M | -$334M | -$474M | -$554M | -$133M |
| Net income | -$181M | -$314M | -$307M | -$310M | -$546M | -$131M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.89 | -$1.40 | -$1.21 | -$1.59 | -$1.82 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$117M | -$280M | -$268M | -$212M | -$114M | -$123M |
| Gross margin | 45.1% | 38.2% | 26.3% | 24.2% | 28.6% | — |
| Operating margin | -161.2% | -239.4% | -166.8% | -308.0% | -346.2% | -83.5% |
| Net margin | -138.9% | -244.9% | -153.0% | -201.2% | -341.5% | -82.5% |
| Revenue growth | +65.4% | -1.7% | +56.3% | -23.2% | +3.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.04B | $772M | $631M | $390M | $280M | — |
| Total debt | $898M | $899M | $893M | $647M | $645M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 5.5x · EV/Sales 8.1x · FCF yield -14.03% · Earnings yield -14.94% · Net debt $407M · EV $1.29B

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Gibson James R Ii | See Remarks | 661,815 | $2.1M | 37.9% | Yes (adopted May 22, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Van Oene Mark | See Remarks | 26,911 | $30K | 1% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Mar & Aug each year 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.75 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 2.54 (low 1.25, high 3.05).

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +21.9% | -89.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.2% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +22.0% | -36.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 92.5% | 97.5% |
| Max drawdown | -58.4% (Jan 2026→Aug 2026) | -96.8% (Nov 2021→May 2025) |

## Peers (Medical Devices)
ESTA (Establishment Labs Holdings Inc) USD 68.97 +3.02% · BFLY (Butterfly Network, Inc.) USD 7.81 +5.83% · INSP (Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.) USD 70.97 -0.46% · UFPT (UFP Technologies, Inc.) USD 286 -3.00% · ALMR (Alamar Biosciences, Inc.) USD 34.3 +7.42% · TMDX (TransMedics Group, Inc.) USD 66.9 -4.06%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PACB · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in PACB's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1299130/000129913026000034/pacb-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | SOFTBANK GROUP CORP. (SFTBF) | "On February 9, 2021, we entered into an investment agreement with SB Northstar LP ("SBN"), a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp., relating to the issuance and sale to SBN of $900.0 million in aggregate principal amount of…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "PacBio expects revenue for the full year 2026 to be in the range of $155 million to $165 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.13 | $-0.13 | $0.00 | $39.5M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.13 | $-0.13 | $0.00 | $43.0M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.52 | $-0.51 | −$0.01 | $158.7M | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.42 | $-0.39 | −$0.03 | $184.1M | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±23.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 23 | 108.5% | ±23.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 51 | 118.5% | ±38.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 79 | 140.2% | ±45.9% |
| 2027-03-19 | 142 | 114.9% | ±57.6% |
| 2027-06-17 | 232 | 102.7% | ±64.7% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.14 | −$0.13 | Miss −7.7% | -18.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.12 | −$0.13 | Beat +7.7% | -17.5% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.12 | −$0.13 | Beat +7.7% | -7.1% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.12 | −$0.13 | Beat +7.7% | +9.8% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.12 | −$0.14 | Beat +14.3% | -11.0% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -2.2% |
| May 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -0.9% |
| Apr 9, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +15.0% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | ARK Investment Management LLC, Catherine D. Wood: 9.6% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1299130/000110465926096937/0001104659-26-096937-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1299130/000129913026000122/0001299130-26-000122-index.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Quarterly results; Exit or restructuring costs (layoffs, closures); Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure — “On July 30, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of the Company approved a restructuring plan to continue to better align the Company's organizational structure and resources with its strategic initiatives. The restructuring includes operating expense reductions and a reduction in force (the "Reduction in Force"). These restructuring actions are expected to result in a workforce reduction of approximately 40 employees, or approximately 8% of the Company's workforce, as the Company aligns its organizational…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1299130/000129913026000117/0001299130-26-000117-index.htm |
| 2026-07-09 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “On July 8, 2026, Christopher M. Smith, a member of the board of directors (the "Board") of Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (the "Company"), notified the Company of his resignation from the Board, effective immediately. The Company is not aware of any disagreement between Mr. Smith and the Company on any matter relating to the Company's operations, policies or practices that resulted in Mr. Smith's resignation.” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1299130/000129913026000111/0001299130-26-000111-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.