# Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PAG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG), nexqual.com/PAG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 212.11 (+0.03% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 212.05 · day 211.87–212.33 · 52w 140.12–227 · market cap $13.9B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $32.2B, net income $906M (2.8% margin), free cash flow $582M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.4x (avg 10.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 11.5x, net debt $2.43B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $496K; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($496K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 1 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 210.57 (range 210–212).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +32.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +114.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 3.34, revenue estimate $8.14B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.6B | $27.8B | $30.9B | $31.9B | $31.8B | $32.2B |
| Gross profit | $4.44B | $4.84B | $5.15B | $5.22B | $5.22B | — |
| Operating income | $1.36B | $1.49B | $1.41B | $1.37B | $1.28B | $1.24B |
| Net income | $1.19B | $1.38B | $1.11B | $969M | $935M | $906M |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.89 | $18.55 | $16.31 | $14.49 | $14.13 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.04B | $1.18B | $759M | $853M | $651M | $582M |
| Gross margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 16.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Net margin | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Revenue growth | +25.0% | +8.8% | +11.2% | +3.1% | -0.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $101M | $107M | $96.4M | $83.6M | $64.7M | — |
| Total debt | $1.47B | $1.62B | $1.63B | $1.85B | $2.17B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 15.4x · P/S 0.4x · EV/EBITDA 11.5x · EV/Sales 0.5x · P/FCF 23.9x · P/B 2.4x · FCF yield 4.18% · Earnings yield 6.50% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.62% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.53% · Net debt $2.43B · EV $16.4B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 11.2x, Dec 2024 10.5x, Dec 2023 9.8x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Hulgrave Michelle | EVP & CFO | 1,500 | $258K | 7.9% | No | Routine (sold in Jun each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Smith Greg C | Director | 1,488 | $238K | 100% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 210.57 (low 210, high 212).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $215 → $210 |
| 2026-10-06 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $225 → $210 |
| 2026-08-19 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $220 → $225 |
| 2026-08-04 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $170 → $215 |
| 2026-08-03 | Stephens & Co. | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $166 → $210 |
| 2026-07-24 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Overweight → Equal-Weight | $190 → $210 |
| 2026-07-23 | Citigroup | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $199 → $210 |
| 2026-07-23 | Benchmark | Downgrade | Buy → Hold |  |
| 2026-07-22 | Benchmark | Downgrade | Buy → Hold |  |
| 2026-07-15 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $190 → $220 |
| 2026-07-10 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $167 → $192 |
| 2026-07-09 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $200 → $238 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +32.1% | +114.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +32.3% | +16.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 27.6% | 29.0% |
| Max drawdown | -20.0% (Feb 2026→Mar 2026) | -23.8% (Sep 2025→Mar 2026) |

## Peers (Auto & Truck Dealerships)
KMX (CarMax Inc) USD 52.96 +2.85% · RUSHB (Rush Enterprises, Inc.) USD 57.89 -1.14% · LAD (Lithia Motors, Inc.) USD 291.07 +8.15% · AN (AutoNation, Inc.) USD 161.84 +5.77% · OPLN (OPENLANE, Inc.) USD 38.05 +1.63% · VVV (Valvoline Inc.) USD 32.44 +4.24%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PAG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in PAG's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1019849/000162828026012830/pag-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Toyota Motor Credit | "As of December 31, 2025, we had five principal sources of short-term borrowings: our U.S. credit agreement (with $1.5 billion of total capacity), U.K. credit agreement, other local country credit agreements, the revolvin…" |
| Supplier | Honda (HMC) | "In the U.S., we believe new vehicle sales overall were positively impacted by continued strong consumer demand in spite of manufacturer price increases in 2025, while several brands experienced supply chain disruption, i…" |
| Customer | Automotive | "We have determined that the dealerships in each of our operating segments within the Retail Automotive reportable segment are components that were aggregated into two reporting units for the purpose of goodwill impairmen…" |
| Customer | CDK Global | "Events such as the CDK Cybersecurity Incident and the failure of our information systems, the failure to protect the integrity of these systems, or the interruption of these systems as discussed herein or otherwise due t…" |
| Partner | Mercedes-Benz Financial Services USA | "Our U.S. credit agreement with Mercedes-Benz Financial Services USA LLC, Toyota Motor Credit Corporation, and Daimler Truck Financial Services USA LLC (as amended, the "U.S. credit agreement") provides for up to $1.5 bil…" |
| Partner | Daimler Truck Financial Services USA | "Our U.S. credit agreement with Mercedes-Benz Financial Services USA LLC, Toyota Motor Credit Corporation, and Daimler Truck Financial Services USA LLC (as amended, the "U.S. credit agreement") provides for up to $1.5 bil…" |
| Related party | Penske Motor Group | "Included within other debt is our related party 4.50% senior subordinated promissory note of $155.8 million due November 2028 resulting from the PMG transaction, which requires monthly principal and interest payments (su…" |
| Competitor | Ford (F) | "In our retail commercial truck dealership operations, we compete with other manufacturers and retailers of medium- and heavy-duty trucks, such as Ford, International Kenworth, Mack, Peterbilt, and Volvo." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail automotive dealership | $7.30B | 85.8% | +6.0% |
| Retail commercial truck dealership | $927.8M | 10.9% | -1.7% |
| Commercial vehicle distribution and other | $283.9M | 3.3% | +41.1% |
| Other | $283.9M | 3.3% | +41.1% |
| Total revenue | $8.51B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 103.3% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| New vehicle | $3.38B | 39.7% | +5.9% |
| Used vehicle | $2.47B | 29.0% | +9.4% |
| Service and parts | $867.1M | 10.2% | +1.6% |
| New truck | $594.3M | 7.0% | -9.4% |
| Fleet and wholesale | $375.6M | 4.4% | -0.8% |
| Finance and insurance, net | $211.0M | 2.5% | +1.3% |
| Used truck | $86.6M | 1.0% | +64.3% |
| Other | $4.7M | 0.1% | +2.2% |
| Total revenue | $8.51B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 93.8% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $19.58B | 61.6% | +2.4% |
| U.K. | $8.33B | 26.2% | -10.6% |
| Non US & Non UK | $3.90B | 12.2% | +14.0% |
| Total revenue | $31.81B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "The acquisition is expected to add $450 million in estimated annualized revenue."
- "Coupled with the acquisitions in November 2025, the Company has acquired 2 two Toyota and four Lexus dealerships in the last nine months, which are expected to generate approximately $2 billion in estimated annualized revenue."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.34 | $3.48 | -3.9% | $8.14B | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.23 | $3.40 | -4.9% | $8.16B | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $13.24 | $13.36 | -0.9% | $32.63B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $14.05 | $14.08 | -0.2% | $33.57B | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±2.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±3.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 3.9% | ±2.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 3.3% | ±1.7% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 4.1% | ±2.2% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 3.7% | ±2.6% |