# Patria Investments Limited (PAX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PAX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Patria Investments Limited (PAX), nexqual.com/PAX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 11.9 (-0.08% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 11.91 · day 11.76–12.08 · 52w 9.89–17.8 · market cap $1.95B · NMS

## Key facts
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold PAX (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $166K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($166K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $2.7M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 15 (range 9–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -14.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -7.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.29, revenue estimate $104M.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold PAX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | <0.01% | $1.3M | Added +120.0% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14…2026-08-06 | D'Ippolito Marco Nicola | CEO of Global Private Markets | 14,504 | $166K | 3.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
5 purchases, $2.7M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03…2026-06-05 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | Director | 100,000 | $1.1M | 11.29 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01…2026-06-02 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | Director | 30,000 | $350K | 11.66 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-28…2026-05-29 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | Director | 30,000 | $344K | 11.48 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-26…2026-05-27 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | Director | 30,000 | $342K | 11.39 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15…2026-05-21 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | Director | 45,000 | $503K | 11.18 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 15 (low 9, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $15 → $13 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -14.3% | -7.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -14.3% | -1.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 31.3% | 29.9% |
| Max drawdown | -40.9% (Jan 2026→Sep 2026) | -40.3% (Jan 2026→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Asset Management)
BXSL (Blackstone Secured Lending Fund) USD 23.91 +2.31% · VCTR (Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. ) USD 107.39 -0.20% · PDI (PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund) USD 14.3 +1.20% · AMG (Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.) USD 395.53 +0.48% · SEIC (SEI Investments Company) USD 104.5 -3.62% · IVZ (Invesco Ltd) USD 28.79 -1.57%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PAX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in PAX's own 20-F filed 2026-04-30 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1825570/000207097926000201/pax-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Moneda | "As a result, we issued 11,045,430 Class B common shares to entities controlled by certain Moneda partners." |
| Partner | Recursos | "On December 8, 2021, we announced the launch of a new Growth Equity strategy, anchored by a proposed partnership with Kamaroopin Gestora de Recursos Ltda. (purchased by PILTDA) and Hanuman GP Cayman, LLC (purchased by Pa…" |
| Partner | Salomon Brothers | "Initially named Patrimônio Participações, we were founded in 1988 as a Brazilian M&A and financial advisory firm in partnership with Salomon Brothers Inc., a well-known U.S. investment bank at the time." |
| Partner | Hanuman GP Cayman | "On December 8, 2021, we announced the launch of a new Growth Equity strategy, anchored by a proposed partnership with Kamaroopin Gestora de Recursos Ltda. (purchased by PILTDA) and Hanuman GP Cayman, LLC (purchased by Pa…" |
| Partner | Patria Finance | "On December 8, 2021, we announced the launch of a new Growth Equity strategy, anchored by a proposed partnership with Kamaroopin Gestora de Recursos Ltda. (purchased by PILTDA) and Hanuman GP Cayman, LLC (purchased by Pa…" |
| Partner | Patria Asset Management | "We expect to contribute capital to be deployed over multiple years to support Patria Asset Management ("PAM") 's operations as well as to fund general partner commitments." |
| Partner | Bancolombia | "Fee Rate includes the 100% of VBI and the Bancolombia partnership, which was effective at our 50% in part of 2025 for VBI and is 51% ownership levels for Bancolombia partnership." |
| Partner | WP Global Partners | "On April 1, 2026, the Group completed the execution of the agreement and entered into a business combination with WP Partners, for a total consideration of US$30.0 million plus earn out conditioned to certain revenues in…" |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.29 | $0.30 | -5.1% | $103.7M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.46 | $0.50 | -7.2% | $142.4M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.35 | $1.36 | -0.7% | $434.8M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.45 | $1.54 | -5.4% | $477.2M | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±12.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 49.7% | ±12.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 39.8% | ±16.4% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 36.0% | ±21.1% |