# Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PAYX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Paychex, Inc. (PAYX), nexqual.com/PAYX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 118.81 (+5.61% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 112.5 · day 113.6–119.14 · 52w 85.45–127.98 · market cap $42.3B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Aug 31, 2026): revenue $6.60B, net income $1.81B (27.4% margin), free cash flow $2.02B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 23.4x (avg 26.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 15.9x, net debt $3.62B.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold PAYX (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $4.6M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.6M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 1 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (19 analysts), mean target USD 113.93 (range 96–150).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -0.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +12.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-12-18, EPS estimate USD 1.28, revenue estimate $1.62B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.61B | $5.01B | $5.28B | $5.57B | $6.51B | $6.60B |
| Gross profit | $3.26B | $3.55B | $3.80B | $4.03B | $4.84B | — |
| Operating income | $1.84B | $2.03B | $2.17B | $2.21B | $2.51B | $2.59B |
| Net income | $1.39B | $1.56B | $1.69B | $1.66B | $1.76B | $1.81B |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.84 | $4.30 | $4.67 | $4.58 | $4.89 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.46B | $1.56B | $1.74B | $1.71B | $2.32B | $2.02B |
| Gross margin | 70.6% | 71.0% | 72.0% | 72.4% | 74.3% | — |
| Operating margin | 39.9% | 40.6% | 41.2% | 39.6% | 38.6% | 39.2% |
| Net margin | 30.2% | 31.1% | 32.0% | 29.7% | 27.0% | 27.4% |
| Revenue growth | +13.7% | +8.6% | +5.4% | +5.6% | +16.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.22B | $1.60B | $1.50B | $1.66B | $1.12B | — |
| Total debt | $806M | $808M | $799M | $4.95B | $4.56B | — |
Fiscal years end May. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Aug 31, 2026)
P/E 23.4x · P/S 6.4x · EV/EBITDA 15.9x · EV/Sales 7.0x · P/FCF 21.0x · P/B 11.4x · FCF yield 4.77% · Earnings yield 4.27% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 3.84% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.07% · Net debt $3.62B · EV $45.9B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: May 2026 19.8x, May 2025 34.5x, May 2024 25.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold PAYX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bloomstran | Semper Augustus | 2.35% | $20.8M | New position |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.11% | $14.7M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Velli Joseph M | Director | 7,839 | $844K | 8.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-20 | Schrader Robert L. | Sr. VP, CFO | 2,600 | $299K | 12.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-17 | Simmons Christopher C | VP, Controller & Treasurer | 2,615 | $303K | 43.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-14 | Mucci Martin | Director | 25,000 | $2.7M | 5.3% | No | Routine (sold in Jul each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-26 | Tucci Joseph M | Director | 3,907 | $384K | 5.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-13 | Roaldsen Elizabeth | Sr. Vice President | 459 | $41K | 4.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 19 analysts; mean target USD 113.93 (low 96, high 150).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Baird | Target lowered | Neutral | $125 → $110 |
| 2026-09-28 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target lowered | Underweight | $112 → $96 |
| 2026-09-24 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $125 → $115 |
| 2026-09-24 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Market Perform | $118 → $113 |
| 2026-09-24 | Stifel | Target lowered | Hold | $130 → $112 |
| 2026-09-24 | RBC Capital | Reiterated | Sector Perform | $130 |
| 2026-09-24 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Underweight → Neutral | $105 → $115 |
| 2026-09-16 | Wolfe Research | Upgrade | Underperform → Peer Perform |  |
| 2026-09-11 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $98 → $117 |
| 2026-09-09 | Stifel | Target raised | Hold | $110 → $130 |
| 2026-09-09 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Underweight | $95 → $111 |
| 2026-08-13 | Jefferies | Target raised | Hold | $105 → $120 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -0.6% | +12.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -0.6% | +2.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 30.6% | 24.4% |
| Max drawdown | -30.2% (Oct 2025→Apr 2026) | -45.0% (Jun 2025→Apr 2026) |

## Peers (Software - Application)
ROP (Roper Technologies, Inc.) USD 436.23 +9.73% · WDAY (Workday, Inc.) USD 209.99 +3.46% · ADSK (Autodesk, Inc.) USD 254.95 +4.13% · TEAM (Atlassian Corporation) USD 223.16 -1.04% · BSP (Bending Spoons S.p.A.) USD 45.69 +3.54% · MSTR (Strategy Inc) USD 145.8 -5.00%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PAYX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in PAYX's own 10-K filed 2026-07-17 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723531/000119312526307785/payx-20260531.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Paycor HCM | "We support our customers with three proprietary SaaS-based HCM platforms: SurePayroll®, Paychex Flex®, and Paycor®, each designed to meet diverse customer needs and business requirements." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-08-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Management Solutions | $1.21B | 76.7% | +4.3% |
| Peo & Insurance Solutions | $367.6M | 23.3% | +11.7% |
| Total revenue | $1.58B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-11-30) | $1.28 | $1.36 | -6.3% | $1.62B | 18 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-02-28) | $1.87 | $1.84 | +1.8% | $1.91B | 18 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-05-31) | $5.96 | $5.97 | -0.1% | $6.86B | 19 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-05-31) | $6.39 | $6.39 | -0.0% | $7.24B | 19 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-18 (includes earnings 2026-12-18): ±9.7%; earnings reaction alone ±1.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 30.7% | ±7.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 30.6% | ±9.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 30.1% | ±11.6% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 28.6% | ±14.5% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 29.7% | ±18.9% |
| 2027-09-17 | 329 | 29.5% | ±21.8% |