# PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PDD · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD), nexqual.com/PDD" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 79.17 (+0.57% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 78.72 · day 77.23–79.91 · 52w 71.94–139.41 · market cap $113B · NMS

## Key facts
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold PDD (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 3 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $140K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($140K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -40.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -20.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-18, EPS estimate USD 18.84, revenue estimate $116B.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold PDD. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Lu | Himalaya Capital Management | 22.17% | $821M | Added +133.5% |
| Norbert Lou | Punch Card Management | 12.37% | $31.7M | Unchanged |
| Duan Yongping | H&H International Investment | 9.99% | $1.91B | Added +26.7% |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | 0.18% | $347M | Added +0.3% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kam Anthony Ping Leung | Director | 1,705 | $140K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $110 → $95 |
| 2026-08-25 | Benchmark | Target lowered | Buy | $127 → $114 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -40.6% | -20.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -40.7% | -4.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 33.6% | 64.3% |
| Max drawdown | -46.9% (Nov 2025→Jun 2026) | -67.6% (Oct 2021→Mar 2022) |

## Peers (Internet Retail)
MELI (MercadoLibre, Inc.) USD 1,824.95 -1.61% · DASH (DoorDash, Inc.) USD 185.94 +0.81% · EBAY (eBay Inc.) USD 122.04 -0.70% · BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited) USD 101.82 -2.48% · SE (Sea Limited) USD 75.69 -2.89% · JD (JD.com, Inc.) USD 25.68 -0.43%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PDD · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $18.84 | $18.58 | +1.4% | $115.64B | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $20.27 | $20.39 | -0.6% | $131.37B | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $68.57 | $68.23 | +0.5% | $466.02B | 28 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $82.58 | $82.60 | -0.0% | $517.12B | 29 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-18): ±9.1%; earnings reaction alone ±6.0%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 33.1% | ±3.9% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 33.7% | ±5.5% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 31.0% | ±6.1% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 40.4% | ±9.1% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 40.5% | ±10.2% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 36.8% | ±10.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 36.4% | ±11.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 35.1% | ±13.6% |